Prediction and investigation of stumpage prices of some tree species in Caspian Forests

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HATAMI N.; MOHAMMADI LIMAEI S.; MOAYERI M.H.

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Journal: Journal of Wood and Forest Science and Technology Year:2018 | Volume:25 | Issue:4 Page(s): 51-69

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Information Journal Paper

Title

Prediction and investigation of stumpage prices of some tree species in Caspian Forests

Author(s)

HATAMI N. | MOHAMMADI LIMAEI S. | MOAYERI M.H. | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

Price predictionQ1

Stationary processesQ1

Caspian forestsQ3

Optimal forest managementQ1

Abstract

Background and objectives: Wood Price prediction has an important role in the marketing and sales of wood products, and has always been of interest for managers. Price prediction will cMuesnmoHsnMtts tio ntowMHdentasnwoodni duetHynM dnwillnbooetntasnfoHsetnmM MgsHe’ nk owlsdgsnto optimize harvest operations in terms of species, time interval and the related area. The aim of this research was to use price time series of different species to predict the expected average price and investigate of the historical price trends in the Caspian forests. Materials and methods: First of all, historic stumpage price data of main species were collected for the period of 24 years from 1993 to 2016. Then, in order to determine the stumpage price the variable costs were deducted from the wood price beside forest roads. Consumer price Index (CPI) in base year 2012 was used for deflation of stumpage price. Investigation of the stationary stochastic process of time series was tested by generalized Dickey Fuller test from unit root tests using EVIWS 10 software. Then validity of regression models was investigated by multiple regression analysis using SPSS23 software. Finally, the mean expected price of different species was estimated by the parameters of the autoregressive models. Results: The results showed that real prices in past periods had random fluctuations, and the nonstationary hypothesis of time series was rejected. Regarding the parameters of the regression models, the mean expected prices based on the first-order autoregressive processes were estimated include 253. 75, 141. 89, 252. 42, 88. 231, 163. 63 and 123 (ten thousand Iranian Rials/m3) for studied species respectevily including beech (Fagus orientalis Lipsky), hornbeam (Carpinus betulus L. ), maple (Acer velutinum Boiss), alder (Alnus subcordata C. A. M. ), oak (Quercus castanifoli C. A. M. ), ironwood (Parrotia persica (DC) C. A. M. ). Conclusion: This research has shown that forecasting the expected price of species and controlling the price changes as well as its related factor is essential for forest managers and planners to optimize forest management. Determining the expected prices is required identifying potentialities, investigating the underhand obstacles and compiling comprehensive plans. Furthermore, is an indication of wood market situation. Thus, with awareness of the mean expected prices and their fluctuations will help forest managers for decision making in harvest scheduling. It will also assist wood and paper industries sectors to produce at lower costs and secure the raw materials.

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APA: Copy

HATAMI, N., MOHAMMADI LIMAEI, S., & MOAYERI, M.H.. (2018). Prediction and investigation of stumpage prices of some tree species in Caspian Forests. JOURNAL OF WOOD AND FOREST SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY, 25(4 ), 51-69. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/396798/en

Vancouver: Copy

HATAMI N., MOHAMMADI LIMAEI S., MOAYERI M.H.. Prediction and investigation of stumpage prices of some tree species in Caspian Forests. JOURNAL OF WOOD AND FOREST SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY[Internet]. 2018;25(4 ):51-69. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/396798/en

IEEE: Copy

N. HATAMI, S. MOHAMMADI LIMAEI, and M.H. MOAYERI, “Prediction and investigation of stumpage prices of some tree species in Caspian Forests,” JOURNAL OF WOOD AND FOREST SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY, vol. 25, no. 4 , pp. 51–69, 2018, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/396798/en

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