Meteorological Drought Modeling and Forecasting Using SARIMA Time Series at Different Climates of Iran

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HELMI M.; BAKHTIARI B.; QADERI K.

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Paper Information

Journal: Iranian Journal of Irrigation and Drainage Year:2020 | Volume:13 | Issue:3 Page(s): 1079-1090

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Title

Meteorological Drought Modeling and Forecasting Using SARIMA Time Series at Different Climates of Iran

Author(s)

HELMI M. | BAKHTIARI B. | QADERI K. | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

Dryness periodQ1

Domarton classificationQ1

Seasonal time seriesQ1

Standardized Precipitation IndexQ1

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the application of the SARIMA time series statistical model in different climatic regions of Iran to forecast meteorological drought. For this putpose, the 12-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) time series was used. Precipitation data were used over 20-years (2000– 2019) at seven synoptic stations of Iran located in different climatic regions ranging from extra-arid to per-humid. The SARIMA time series model was developed after checking the stationary and seasonality of precipitation data in the MiniTab software. Akaike and Bayesian Information Criteria (AIC & BIC) were used to identify the optimal model. The results showed that due to the periodic and seasonal trend of precipitation, the use of the SARIMA model is appropriate in all the study stations. The precipitation residuals in the study stations were very close to normal and the model performance was satisfactory in forecasting precipitation and consequently drought. It is also expected that in the extra-arid moderate climates, arid and semi-arid (very cold and cold) climates, Mediterranean moderate climates, humid cold climates, and per-humid types A and B climates, severe drought, moderate drought, near-normal and moderately wet would occur, respectively.

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APA: Copy

HELMI, M., BAKHTIARI, B., & QADERI, K.. (2020). Meteorological Drought Modeling and Forecasting Using SARIMA Time Series at Different Climates of Iran. IRANIAN JOURNAL OF IRRIGATION AND DRAINAGE, 13(3 ), 1079-1090. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/404329/en

Vancouver: Copy

HELMI M., BAKHTIARI B., QADERI K.. Meteorological Drought Modeling and Forecasting Using SARIMA Time Series at Different Climates of Iran. IRANIAN JOURNAL OF IRRIGATION AND DRAINAGE[Internet]. 2020;13(3 ):1079-1090. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/404329/en

IEEE: Copy

M. HELMI, B. BAKHTIARI, and K. QADERI, “Meteorological Drought Modeling and Forecasting Using SARIMA Time Series at Different Climates of Iran,” IRANIAN JOURNAL OF IRRIGATION AND DRAINAGE, vol. 13, no. 3 , pp. 1079–1090, 2020, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/404329/en

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