Gap analysis of wheat production and influencing factors in Kerman province

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Hesam Arefi Iman; Saffari Mehri; Moradi Rooholla

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Journal: JOURNAL OF AGROECOLOGY (کشاورزی بوم شناختی) Year:2018 | Volume:8 | Issue:1 Page(s): 106-123

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Title

Gap analysis of wheat production and influencing factors in Kerman province

Author(s)

Hesam Arefi Iman | Saffari Mehri | Moradi Rooholla | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

CultivarQ2

IrrigationQ2

Potential YieldQ2

SimulationQ2

Abstract

Introduction: : Due to water shortages in Iran, it is not possible to increase areas of cultivation to supply the increasing demand for wheat (Nassiri Mahallati and Koocheki, 2009). There is a significant gap between the actual and Potential Yield (Koocheki et al., 2016). Specifying the potential and impact of each limiting factor in yield is important in determining alternative management strategies to reduce the gap (Varvani et al., 2016). This study was performed to evaluate the wheat yield potential and gap, and the relative contribution of climatic and management variables in Kerman Province. Materials and methods: For this study, meteorological and managerial information was extracted for all the regions of Kerman Province. Various wheat yield and growth parameters were simulated by CERES-Wheat model. The model was calibrated and validated using the extracted data from the designed experiments and previously conducted research from various regions of Kerman. Multiple regression was used to determine the relative contribution of each of the climatic and managerial factors on the yield potential and gap. Results and discussion: The results showed that CERES-Wheat model indicated an acceptable accuracy for simulating wheat growth and yield in Kerman. The 10-year average of wheat yield in Kerman ranged between 2-4. 6 t/ha-1. The results of regression analysis showed that the relationship between water, N and P with actual yield was positive, and the highest R2 (0. 97) was related to the amount of water consumed. Therefore the highest actual yield of wheat was assigned to the areas that consumed the greatest value of input. The Potential Yield was simulated at 6. 6-8. 2 t/ha-1 for different regions of the province. The analysis of regression confirmed that temperature is the most important factor affecting Potential Yield in the area and showed an inverse relationship with this parameter. The range of yield gap for different regions of the province varied from 2. 33 t/ha-1 in Kahnuj to 4. 84 t/ha-1 in Baft. In most parts of the province, water was the most important limiting factor for wheat yields, which included more than 50% of the yield gap in dry-climate regions. Replacing conventional Cultivars with the high-yielding Cultivars of Mihan for lower temperature regions and Chamran 2 for tropical regions had a significant role in improving actual yield and subsequently reducing the yield gap of these areas. The range of fertilizer contribution in yield gap was between 1. 34 and 0. 21 t/ha-1. Conclusion: In general, the results illustrated that there is a remarkable gap between the actual and potential wheat yield in most regions of Kerman. Irrigation is the most important factor affecting the gap. It seems that the gap can be mitigated by identifying the limiting factors and appropriate management of water, fertilizer and Cultivar.

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APA: Copy

Hesam Arefi, Iman, Saffari, Mehri, & Moradi, Rooholla. (2018). Gap analysis of wheat production and influencing factors in Kerman province. JOURNAL OF AGROECOLOGY (کشاورزی بوم شناختی), 8(1 ), 106-123. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/409338/en

Vancouver: Copy

Hesam Arefi Iman, Saffari Mehri, Moradi Rooholla. Gap analysis of wheat production and influencing factors in Kerman province. JOURNAL OF AGROECOLOGY (کشاورزی بوم شناختی)[Internet]. 2018;8(1 ):106-123. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/409338/en

IEEE: Copy

Iman Hesam Arefi, Mehri Saffari, and Rooholla Moradi, “Gap analysis of wheat production and influencing factors in Kerman province,” JOURNAL OF AGROECOLOGY (کشاورزی بوم شناختی), vol. 8, no. 1 , pp. 106–123, 2018, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/409338/en

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