Application of the Nested Copula Functions for Analysis of Four variate of Meteorological Droughts (Case Study: West of Iran)

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Khani Temeliyeh Zabihollah; REZAEI HOSSEIN; MIRABBASI NAJAFABADI RASOUL

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Journal: JOURNAL OF WATER AND SOIL RESOURCES CONSERVATION Year:2020 | Volume:10 | Issue:1 Page(s): 93-111

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Title

Application of the Nested Copula Functions for Analysis of Four variate of Meteorological Droughts (Case Study: West of Iran)

Author(s)

Khani Temeliyeh Zabihollah | REZAEI HOSSEIN | MIRABBASI NAJAFABADI RASOUL | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

Joint ProbabilityQ1

Joint return periodQ1

DroughtQ1

Modified standardized precipitation indexQ1

Abstract

Meteorological Drought is the result of a decrease in precipitation over a long period, which may occur on a week, month, year, or several years period depending on the climate of the studied region. The main purpose of this study is to application of nested copula functions in four variates analysis of Drought phenomenon using the Modified standardized precipitation index (SPI mod ). For this purpose, the characteristics of Drought, including severity, duration, inter-arrival time and Drought peak were extracted using the mentioned index. Then, many different distributions were fitted to the mentioned variables, and the suitable marginal distribution was determined for each Drought characteristic. Accordingly, for the variables of severity and duration of Drought, the gamma, and exponential distribution functions were identified, respectively, and for the variables of inter-arrival time and Drought peak, the general extreme values (GEV) distribution was identified as superior marginal distribution functions. In order to four variate analysis using the method of nested copulas, the fitness of 9 different copula functions were examined on the pairs of mentioned variables. To identify the best copula function, the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Maximum Likelihood, and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency coefficient (NSE) were used. The results showed that the Joe is the best fitted copula function for creating the multivariate distribution in the study area. Also, the joint probabilities and Joint return periods were calculated for studied stations based on the Joe copula. The results showed that for the foue variate probability of 0. 9, the longest period of Drought occurs in Urmia nad Saghez stations with duration of 9 months. However, the Drought severity in Saghez satation (Ds= 9. 45) is greater than Urmia station (Ds=3. 82). Among the studied stations, the highest Drought severity is belong to Kermanshah station equal to 9. 94 with a 6 months duration. The results of this study indicate that the four-variate analysis of Drought characteristics can provide useful information for managers and planners for forecasting and planning to cope with the undesirable effects of Drought.

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APA: Copy

Khani Temeliyeh, Zabihollah, REZAEI, HOSSEIN, & MIRABBASI NAJAFABADI, RASOUL. (2020). Application of the Nested Copula Functions for Analysis of Four variate of Meteorological Droughts (Case Study: West of Iran). JOURNAL OF WATER AND SOIL RESOURCES CONSERVATION, 10(1 ), 93-111. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/412787/en

Vancouver: Copy

Khani Temeliyeh Zabihollah, REZAEI HOSSEIN, MIRABBASI NAJAFABADI RASOUL. Application of the Nested Copula Functions for Analysis of Four variate of Meteorological Droughts (Case Study: West of Iran). JOURNAL OF WATER AND SOIL RESOURCES CONSERVATION[Internet]. 2020;10(1 ):93-111. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/412787/en

IEEE: Copy

Zabihollah Khani Temeliyeh, HOSSEIN REZAEI, and RASOUL MIRABBASI NAJAFABADI, “Application of the Nested Copula Functions for Analysis of Four variate of Meteorological Droughts (Case Study: West of Iran),” JOURNAL OF WATER AND SOIL RESOURCES CONSERVATION, vol. 10, no. 1 , pp. 93–111, 2020, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/412787/en

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