SEASONAL AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELS FOR ESTIMATING THE PROBABILITY OF FROST IN RAFSANJAN

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HOSSEINI A.; FALLAHNEZHAD M.S.; ZARE MEHRJARDI Y.; HOSSEINI R.

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Journal: Journal of Nuts Year:2012 | Volume:3 | Issue:2 Page(s): 45-52

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Title

SEASONAL AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELS FOR ESTIMATING THE PROBABILITY OF FROST IN RAFSANJAN

Author(s)

HOSSEINI A. | FALLAHNEZHAD M.S. | ZARE MEHRJARDI Y. | HOSSEINI R. | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

PISTACHIO

FROST

WEATHER DERIVATIVE

MINIMUM TEMPERATURE

TIME-VARYING AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS

Abstract

This work develops a statistical model to assess the FROST risk in Rafsanjan, one of the largest PISTACHIO production regions in the world. These models can be used to estimate the probability that a FROST happens in a given time-period during the year; a FROST happens after 10 warm days in the growing season. These probability estimates then can be used for: (1) assessing the agro climate risk of investing in this industry; (2) pricing of WEATHER DERIVATIVEs. Autoregressive models with time-varying coefficients and different lags are compared using AIC/BIC/AIC c and cross validation criterions. The optimal model is an AR (1) with both intercept and the “autoregressive coefficients” vary with time. The long-term trends are also accounted for and estimated from data.The optimal models are then used to simulate future weather from which the probabilities of appropriate hazard events are estimated.

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APA: Copy

HOSSEINI, A., FALLAHNEZHAD, M.S., ZARE MEHRJARDI, Y., & HOSSEINI, R.. (2012). SEASONAL AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELS FOR ESTIMATING THE PROBABILITY OF FROST IN RAFSANJAN. JOURNAL OF NUTS (INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF NUTS AND RELATED SCIENCES), 3(2), 45-52. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/634502/en

Vancouver: Copy

HOSSEINI A., FALLAHNEZHAD M.S., ZARE MEHRJARDI Y., HOSSEINI R.. SEASONAL AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELS FOR ESTIMATING THE PROBABILITY OF FROST IN RAFSANJAN. JOURNAL OF NUTS (INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF NUTS AND RELATED SCIENCES)[Internet]. 2012;3(2):45-52. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/634502/en

IEEE: Copy

A. HOSSEINI, M.S. FALLAHNEZHAD, Y. ZARE MEHRJARDI, and R. HOSSEINI, “SEASONAL AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELS FOR ESTIMATING THE PROBABILITY OF FROST IN RAFSANJAN,” JOURNAL OF NUTS (INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF NUTS AND RELATED SCIENCES), vol. 3, no. 2, pp. 45–52, 2012, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/634502/en

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