REGIONAL SCENARIO PLANNING BASED ON CRITICAL UNCERTAINTIES

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DELANGIZAN SOHRAB; KARIMI MOHAMMAD SHARIF; NOROUZI HASSAN

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Journal: URBAN MANAGEMENT Year:2017 | Volume:16 | Issue:3 (48) Page(s): 497-512

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Information Journal Paper

Title

REGIONAL SCENARIO PLANNING BASED ON CRITICAL UNCERTAINTIES

Author(s)

DELANGIZAN SOHRAB | KARIMI MOHAMMAD SHARIF | NOROUZI HASSAN | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

SCENARIO PLANNINGQ1

REGIONAL DEVELOPMENTQ2

FORESIGHTQ1

KOHGILOYEH AND BOYERAHMADQ1

Abstract

In order to prepare for environmental changes, FORESIGHT studies have replaced conventional and traditional planning techniques. In contrast to predictions, futures and scenario activities (as one of the most important FORESIGHT methods) focus on uncertainties that decision-makers cannot control or reduce. SCENARIO PLANNING is a technique that provides different perspectives with regard to environmental uncertainties. Scenarios present the future that is likely to occur in the form of stories, provide alternative about future-related situations. In this research, the development scenarios of the KOHGILOYEH AND BOYERAHMAD Province have been addressed. For this purpose, the Delphi method and the expert’s panel as local knowledge have been used to identify the driving forces and future uncertainties. The future development scenarios of the province were developed using the Cross-Impact Matrix and MickMak software. The results show that Kohgiluyeh and Boyer Ahmad province faces two critical uncertainties of Economic Structure and Fiscal Development. Considering the scenario logics, the province .faces four development scenarios in the future.

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APA: Copy

DELANGIZAN, SOHRAB, KARIMI, MOHAMMAD SHARIF, & NOROUZI, HASSAN. (2017). REGIONAL SCENARIO PLANNING BASED ON CRITICAL UNCERTAINTIES. URBAN MANAGEMENT, 16(3 (48) ), 497-512. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/92291/en

Vancouver: Copy

DELANGIZAN SOHRAB, KARIMI MOHAMMAD SHARIF, NOROUZI HASSAN. REGIONAL SCENARIO PLANNING BASED ON CRITICAL UNCERTAINTIES. URBAN MANAGEMENT[Internet]. 2017;16(3 (48) ):497-512. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/92291/en

IEEE: Copy

SOHRAB DELANGIZAN, MOHAMMAD SHARIF KARIMI, and HASSAN NOROUZI, “REGIONAL SCENARIO PLANNING BASED ON CRITICAL UNCERTAINTIES,” URBAN MANAGEMENT, vol. 16, no. 3 (48) , pp. 497–512, 2017, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/92291/en

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