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Journal: 

Amniat Pajouhi

Issue Info: 
  • Year: 

    2024
  • Volume: 

    23
  • Issue: 

    85
  • Pages: 

    5-30
Measures: 
  • Citations: 

    0
  • Views: 

    38
  • Downloads: 

    0
Abstract: 

Creating the belief in mutual informational threat up to the point of regret forms the fundamental basis of Intelligence deterrence. Based on this, researchers in this article aim to explain and illustrate a model for this concept. The primary goal of the research is to identify the dimensions and components of the Intelligence deterrence model and to prove three hypotheses, where three main areas: "1- Power and capability, communication, awareness, and credibility as influencing factors; 2- Intelligence capture, Intelligence dominance, Intelligence defense as initial outcomes; 3- Intelligence power and security as the main outcomes of the model" have a direct and positive relationship with Intelligence deterrence. This research, with a descriptive-analytical approach and mixed methodology, was conducted in a community of experts (think tank group) and a specialized community of 50 people, by collecting data from 23 participants. The result of the research is the explanation of the Intelligence deterrence model in two dimensions of "creation and application" (15 components) and identifying the underlying factors and outcomes (8 components).

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Issue Info: 
  • Year: 

    2018
  • Volume: 

    8
  • Issue: 

    1 (15)
  • Pages: 

    47-74
Measures: 
  • Citations: 

    0
  • Views: 

    1079
  • Downloads: 

    0
Abstract: 

The anarchical status of cyberspace brings about deep effects on countries’ interests and national security. A large number of anonymous global players threaten the interests or even the vital infrastructures of their counterparts on a daily basis. This has made the states around the world to think about finding a real approach to decrease such damages, threats, etc. in the cyberspace. And the deterrence Strategy, as an efficient tool in dealing with such a significant issue, is the outcome of this long endeavor. The current essay aims to discover the effectiveness of deterrence Strategy in cyberspace and those conditions it is in need of to be regarded as a most efficient deterring tool. The findings here in this essay prove that the deterrence Strategy cannot have the same performance in cyberspace as it had during the Cold War. However, at the same time, they establish that the deterrence Strategy enjoys great potentials through which it protects the countries’ interests and national security. Great defense capability, the power of identifying the invaders, and the capability of conducting harsh retaliatory acts are the main three components that make this strategy effective. However, it is worth saying that among all those components, the ‘ identification’ factor plays the most fundamental role in making the deterrence Strategy effective in cyberspace. The reason is that an unbeaten identifying process guarantees the effectiveness and usefulness of retaliatory acts. Furthermore, such a triumph will force the real threat to be wiped out forever. The findings also show that the deterrence Strategy is something imperfect without the presence of retaliatory acts. In fact, such a shortcoming allows the potential invaders to revise their plans in order to resume their attacks against their rivals in cyberspace.

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Journal: 

MEDIA STUDIES

Issue Info: 
  • Year: 

    2011
  • Volume: 

    6
  • Issue: 

    13
  • Pages: 

    107-131
Measures: 
  • Citations: 

    0
  • Views: 

    1061
  • Downloads: 

    0
Abstract: 

Any activity in the community including social and political activities as well as the media activities – whether it is overt or covert - always takes place under a range of what it is called red lines. The red lines define the boundaries of identity in the society which any violation of it, would made it changed. In this descriptive - qualitative as well as quantitative study, library method used for data collection and Content and theoretical framework. In this way, the study has been considered the media normative systems presented by Dennis Macquail. Due to lack of red lines resources in Iran and its uncertainty, attention were paid to the researcher's designed questionnaire with 36 questions based on Likert scale. These questions have been extracted by depth interviews with a number of journalists. The population of this study includes all available communication and journalism professors and experts. The research's main aims is to identify the possible red lines' sources. The research findings showed that Iran's red lines are not confined in the rules but there are a number of factors which can determine, restrict and/ or expand the Iran's news deterrence criteria.

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Author(s): 

Ghasemi Farhad

Issue Info: 
  • Year: 

    2022
  • Volume: 

    10
  • Issue: 

    39
  • Pages: 

    141-174
Measures: 
  • Citations: 

    0
  • Views: 

    125
  • Downloads: 

    31
Abstract: 

The deterrence system has developed with the evolution of the international system and has experienced new forms. Facing the unstable and unpredictable challenges of the future, along with asymmetric threats in a nonlinear mechanism, is required to design a new analytical apparatus of deterrence and its conceptual and theoretical reconstruction. It forms the main purpose of the present article. In this regard, the fundamental question arises as to how in this model of the emerging international system, deterrence can be reconstructed conceptually and theoretically? The author intends to reconstruct it by using the method of deductive inference and focusing on theories of complexity and chaos, especially its basic principles such as the networked structure of the system, nonlinearity, sensitive dependence, and cascading failure. This study focuses on the dynamics of power and the mechanisms that turn it into a threat through nonlinear logic and its mechanisms and the principles emphasized by the theory of complexity and chaos. The author introduces nonlinear network deterrence to the field of strategic studies as an innovative and new concept. This pattern is a start point of the sixth wave of deterrence in International Relations. It will provide a new model for designing Iran's deterrence.

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Author(s): 

SAED N.

Journal: 

DEFENSE STRATEGY

Issue Info: 
  • Year: 

    2010
  • Volume: 

    8
  • Issue: 

    28
  • Pages: 

    87-115
Measures: 
  • Citations: 

    0
  • Views: 

    2237
  • Downloads: 

    0
Abstract: 

Production and the emergence of soft power in social relations are natural and inevitable, and the impact various aspects of power have on public order, is a certain principles according to all defense and security schools. National defense as a guarantee for public order and preventing the domination of foreign powers over territorial requires application of all aspects of power. At a time when threats, in contrast to their military background, target the minds and perception-emotion area of population in target country, “defense” finds a meaning broader than what it had in the past, and defense strategies find the ability to change in form and content based on new concepts, resources, tools and new methods so that they will consolidate defense functions based on certain and safe compatible with the time situations. In this article, along with analyzing conceptual aspects of deterrence and conceptual analysis soft deterrence, we will examine the documentation of this concept in top level documents of national defense.

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Journal: 

WORLD POLITICS

Issue Info: 
  • Year: 

    2014
  • Volume: 

    3
  • Issue: 

    1
  • Pages: 

    0-0
Measures: 
  • Citations: 

    0
  • Views: 

    2932
  • Downloads: 

    0
Abstract: 

By the end of the Cold War, nuclear weapons were introduced as a deterrent to war and inhibitors. To achieve such technological has been cause of developments force and to ensure for security policies states. In this regard, Iran is also considering the actual experience of Iraq war and increasing threats to regional and also part of the great powers and how their stance against the Iran’s regime has tried to become a nuclear power technology. The knowledge acquired by Iran’s peaceful nuclear and predict future other success, it plays an important role in changing the balance of power in the Persian Gulf region and the Middle East has its benefits .Of course neorealism as the dominant paradigm in International Relations and in the international system is specific definition of safety and security threats. Thus, this particular definition, nuclear deterrence is a special place in this approach. Therefore, it is essential to understand that how nuclear technology provided to Iran security guarantees and it improves stability and national security.

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Author(s): 

Sheikh Mohammadi Alireza

Issue Info: 
  • Year: 

    2020
  • Volume: 

    25
  • Issue: 

    108
  • Pages: 

    33-63
Measures: 
  • Citations: 

    0
  • Views: 

    366
  • Downloads: 

    0
Abstract: 

Despite economic entanglements and numerous international disputes, Russia has not abandoned its goal of creating a strategic deterrence against the United States over the past decade. As the result of its efforts, Russia today has access to ultra-supersonic advanced strategic weapons and projectiles that distinguish it from other nuclear powers worldwide. The objectives pursued by this paper are to examine the dimensions and characteristics of Russia's new nuclear deterrence strategy, the reasons for adopted this strategy and its consequences for Russia's relations with Europe and the United States. Accordingly, the present paper seeks to provide appropriate answers for the following questions: "What is the most prominent feature of Russia's new nuclear deterrence strategy? ” and “ What are its implications for the troika of Russia-EU-US relations? " The author argues that "The ability to pose a direct threat to the United States, rather than a proxy threat to Europe, is the most prominent feature of Russia's new nuclear deterrence strategy that may lead to the proximity of Russia to the European Union and deepening the rift on both sides of the Atlantic. A qualitative method and descriptive-explanatory methodology is employed in this paper and its theoretical foundation is laid on the deterrence (nuclear) theory.

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Author(s): 

DADBAN HASAN | AGHAEI SARA

Journal: 

PRIVATE LAW STUDIES

Issue Info: 
  • Year: 

    2009
  • Volume: 

    39
  • Issue: 

    3
  • Pages: 

    125-148
Measures: 
  • Citations: 

    0
  • Views: 

    4284
  • Downloads: 

    0
Abstract: 

Seeking ways for finding solution in relation to crime and ways for preventing from crime and effective methods for confronting criminals have been studied since many centuries ago by thinkers and criminologists. In this way always it was attempted that by using different tools to prevent from occurring crime and do some actions for decreasing the rate of crime that meanwhile applying punishments for intimidating potential and actual criminals is among one of these levers. This is kind of lever that with depending on concept of prevention and by showing the application of guarantee of penal enforcement on criminals intends to effectively fight against with criminal motivations. Thus prevention from crime is a vast concept that is manifested within diverse strategies. Sometimes this concept will become real via imposing punishment on actual criminals, a kind of punishment that is in heart of prevention theory and as the first generation of preventive measures is regarded as initial element for creating fear and intimidation through public minds. So in this article at first the deterrence punishment theory will be shortly introduced and then characteristics and essential tools of valuable gem of prevention from crime are offered.

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Issue Info: 
  • Year: 

    2021
  • Volume: 

    3
  • Issue: 

    9
  • Pages: 

    99-116
Measures: 
  • Citations: 

    0
  • Views: 

    820
  • Downloads: 

    198
Abstract: 

Tactical deterrence was one of the main bases of Iran's defense strategy during the war. Iran used mechanisms of tactical action, optimization of human resources, and maximization of instrumental capabilities to counter enemy threats. The formation of the Iraq-Iran war in September 1980 indicated that revolutionary countries were more exposed to regional and international conflicts than any other political entity. The present study aimed to analyze tactical deterrence, which has social, tactical, and practical indicators and signs. Iran tried to create the necessary field for optimizing the power equation. The primary basis of Iran's tactical deterrence in the war was: arms purchases, diversification of instrumental power sources, and cooperation with marginal actors. Therefore, the imposed war process has been a structural reaction by the great powers. Tactical deterrence has been Iran's organized effort to balance power against Iraq's aggression. The coalition of the Western world countries and the great forces to confront Iran was a sign of the world system's efforts to limit Iran's power. Since any structure tends to be balanced, revolutionary governments form imbalances in international politics. The primary question of this study is ‘ What tactical and practical mechanisms has Iran used in the war against threats? ’ The hypothesis is that Iran has used deterrent tactical action mechanisms to counter enemy threats and maximize its social role in socializing war. The present study has used the structuralism approach. In the structuralism approach, the imposed war has reflected the agreement of the great powers and regional actors.

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Journal: 

Political Quarterly

Issue Info: 
  • Year: 

    2022
  • Volume: 

    52
  • Issue: 

    3
  • Pages: 

    715-691
Measures: 
  • Citations: 

    0
  • Views: 

    73
  • Downloads: 

    17
Abstract: 

The role of oil, which seems a constant factor in the contemporary Iranian political studies, has been studied in economic, social, and political domains of the country in various ways. However, oil as a strategic natural resource has also influenced regional and national security, particularly in the Persian Gulf countries which are top exporters in the international oil markets. The interdependency of oil exporters and importers has created some kind of mutual vulnerability, and thus the oil trade requires security. Moreover, the countries in the oil-rich Persian Gulf and its vicinity have been experiencing conflicts and wars for decades. The occurrence of wars has often undermined the security of the global oil trade. We try to explain oil market oscillations, considering that the oil market is volatile, and also the supply, demand, and prices of this strategic resource fluctuate. The share of oil-rich regions and countries in the global oil trade also tend to change continually. Because natural resources such as oil are limited, any increase or decrease in oil production and exports in one region affects other oil-rich regions. Since these fluctuations have consequences, it is assumed that these fluctuations affect the occurrence of violence and war in the oil-rich regions. The main research question is: How do the increase or decrease in the share of Persian Gulf oil exports of the world oil exports affect the occurrence of violence and war in this region and its vicinity? To find an appropriate answer to this question, we articulated and tested the "oil deterrence" hypothesis by using mathematical modeling and analyzing the available data.deterrence theories in international politics are based on military capability as well as other capabilities which can be transformed into military capability. Nevertheless, oil deterrence is based on the strategic attribute of this commodity and its trade. The high level of mutual vulnerability of the exporting and importing countries makes oil a strategic commodity that requires some stability. Given the inherent oscillation of the oil market, one needs to adopt an efficient method to define and calculate its consequences. We recommend the use of dynamical system theory by which both the oscillations over time and the desirable and undesirable consequences can be defined and calculated. The expectation from modeling is to identify the events resulting from the oil exports' extremes and to show the appropriate range of deterrence of the Persian Gulf oil exports. Oil deterrence requires conditions that are defined as mathematical propositions.When we have numerical information about an object and the results of that information are qualitative, one way to increase the accuracy of the relationship between quantities and qualities is to construct a model of the object. The quantitative (numeric) data on the volume of Persian Gulf oil exports and the world's total oil exports in different time periods are available, and fluctuate. However, information on the occurrence of conflicts and wars are not readily obtainable in numerical form. So, we define a positive quantity as a coefficient of deterrence that is a function of time. Furthermore, we consider the quantity of deterrence, which is also a function of time. These time functions are then placed as a state variable and an output variable in a differential equation. The upper and lower bounds indicate the extremes of the share of the region's oil exports. Interestingly, no war has been waged as long as output quantity oscillates within the upper and lower bands. Therefore, it is expected that the same relationship would be observed in the future. This model has been tested once by simulating the desired information, and a second time by using the actual data collected.The proposed model shows the deterrence category well and has acceptable compatibility with the data. We have computed the oil deterrence bandwidth in the Persian Gulf. This model shows that deterrence against violence and war can be an oscillating phenomenon and be affected by macroeconomic variables. Another result is that the outbreak of wars in the Persian Gulf region is the result of bifurcation resulting from crossing the deterrence band. The results of the calculations show why — despite the high tensions in recent years — a war between Iran and the United States has not started, while the United States invaded Iraq under seemingly similar circumstances. Although the region has been the location of various wars for decades, no war has started in the deterrence band. Therefore, the model can help decision-makers in the region to make forward-looking policy decisions to avoid the escalations of crises to devastating wars. This is a step towards calculating quality matters, which can then include other qualities and clarify the decision-making conditions.

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