Journal of Quantitative Economics
Year:2010 | Volume:7 | Issue:3 (26)|Papers Count:9

In view of the importance of oil revenues in Gross Domestic Production (GDP), exports and financing the annual budget in OPEC members economies, oil price flactuation may have an important and fundamental effect on macroeconomic variables in these countries. The aftermath of oil price shocks is that the current account performance disturbs abruptly. This paper investigates the effect of oil price shocks on current account of balance of payments (BOP) for OPEC members in the period 1970-2006 by using panel data technique. After stationary test for variables used in model, and also Hausman test, we use Static panel (Fixed effect), and Dynamic panel techniques for estimating.Results show the direct relationship between oil price shocks and CA whereas a surge in oil price (positive oil shocks), increase the CA balance. In other hand, the relationship between CA and other variables government expenditure and trade openness is respectively negative and positive.

It is essential to study the demands for this energy carrier in different and separate sectors, by considering the effective factors in each sector. Meanwhile residential sector has the greatest consumption rate with near 25% in recent years. Effective factors of demand in this sector divide into observable factors, like carrier price, consumer income, and temperature on the one hand and unobservable factors like consumers' habits and taste, gas burners technology on the other hand. Regarding the impact of temperature on the consumption of residential sector, estimation of the multipliers in a specific region (like Tehran) will help the explanation of this variable to improve. Furthermore, in this study, Kalman filter technique is used to prevent the bias estimation of multipliers while considering the impact of unobservable factors and other variables. Finally we came to the conclusion that price and income elasticity of demands are-0.098 and 0.114 respectively.

Besides providing securities and transfer payments to maintain welfare and social harmony, governments can provide economic infrastructures to facilitate economic growth improve resources allocation and enhance productivity of the economy. These latter activities of governments ignited considerable debates among economists about the role of the governments and their impact on the economic growth. This paper investigates the empirical relationship between the size of government and economic growth of the 6 OPEC countries based in the Persian Gulf area, over the 1970–2007 period using panel data pattern. The applied models are adopted from Dar and Amirkhalkhali (2002) and Anaman (2004) studies. Our results indicate that, government size in these countries is large, as their government are impart from oil revenues which has negative effects on investment of private sector and then, decrease GDP. Results also indicate that, growth rate of labor force, growth rate of capital and growth rate of export have positive effect on growth rate of GDP.

Economic fluctuations, endogenous and exogenous shocks led to extensive change in households saving indexes. Change of households saving can also influence on macroeconomic variables.Thus in this study investigated a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models. Therefore, the researchers used Static and Dynamic General Equilibrium Models applying the Mixed Complementary Problems (MCP) method with two scenarios. In the first scenario, marginal propensity to households saving increased twenty percent, but in the second scenario it decreased by the same rate. Furthermore, in this study, the researchers developed a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for Iran in 2004. In the base of research we got follow results: There is an inverse relationship between households saving and consumption in static model and there is a direct relationship between them in dynamic model. Also there is a direct relationship between households saving and investment in static and dynamic models.

From a macroeconomics point of view, achieving economic growth and stability are two main targets of demand-management policies. Thus, this paper is aimed at examining the long term and short term relationship between fiscal and monetary shocks and economic growth in Iran during 1342-86 (1963-2007) periods.Using Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag models, estimated parameters show that in the long term, there is a asymmetric relation between fiscal shocks and economic growth. However, long term relation between monetary shocks and economic growth is not significant. As a 10 percent increase in positive government expenditure shocks leads to less than 10 percent increase in long term and short term economic growth, the long and short term relations between fiscal policy and economic growth is inelastic.Further, the ECM coefficient (0.532) reveals that the relationship between fiscal and oil shocks and economic growth is unbalanced and the annual depreciation speed is 53.2 percent.

Two complexity of inflation and unemployment in Iran caused economic and society problem. In this way gaining to level of unemployment is very important that in it Non-Accelerating Inflation. We call this level of unemployment NAIRU. In general we can said in order to remove the economic problem in employment section, we should try to decrease the rate of NAIRU not unemployment rate. In this letter in order to measuring the rate of NAIRU for Iran, we should use STM/UN way. This way they used time-series data in 1989-2007 periods. According to this research finding the rate of NAIRU to compare with unemployment rate has fluctuation, but from 2002 to 2007 was more than present unemployment rate.

Testing the asymmetric price transmission along supply chain from producer through consumer has great important in economic applied for measuring competitiveness degree of different markets.The present study, investigate the price relations between the producer level and the consumer level for milk in Iran. Data used in the research include consumer price index and producer price index for Milk covering monthly periods of 91 months since March 2001 to October 2008. Johansen's and Juselius's cointegration technique and Grenger causality test were used to examine whether there is a relationship between the two indices and to determine causality direction. The behavior of price transmission was analyzed based on the Hack's traditional method and utilizing Von Cramon-Loy ECM model (1998). The results indicate that there is a long-term relationship between each pair of producer and consumer prices. There is a two-way relation between consumer prices and producer prices in both short-term and long-term periods. The results reject the hypothesis of asymmetry in price transmission in short-term but it confirm the hypothesis of asymmetry in price transmission in long-term. The article suggests the implication of its results in the government policy intervention and more study around marketing margin and changing in producer-consumer welfare.