Journal of Quantitative Economics
Year:2010 | Volume:7 | Issue:1 (24)|Papers Count:8

This fact has ever been proved that involving in global markets does have its own potential advantages for developing countries, especially in 4 recent decades. Monopolizing the oil exporting and controlling the main parts of foreign trade by government sector in Iran, has led to a problematic circumstances in Iranian economy.Hitherto, this paper is going to investigate the demand function of import in Iranian economy by employing auto regression model for a 33 years period (1974-2007, equivalent to 1353-1386). In this study the impact of GDP, both with and without petroleum has been analyzed. One result of this research indicates that the relationship of GDP without petroleum and oil revenue from one hand and the Iranian import from other side is positive.Nevertheless the impact of relative prices on import is negative.

Due to uncertainty in economic growth concepts, existence of various proxies for effective factors on economic growth, and lack of indication of the most appropriate econometric model for investigating effective variables on economic growth, the empirical growth regressions have always faced uncertainty. To investigate this phenomenon, we should move from the classical econometrics towards the approaches which can appropriately deal with uncertainty. One of these approaches is the 'bayesian averaging of classical estimates approach' which has been used in this article to investigate the efficacy of effective factors on economic growth through 7 different economic growth theories, for 79 countries across the world which are divided into two groups of 'all countries' and ' undeveloped countries' (52 countries) during 1970 and 2006. The research findings indicate that the effective factors on economic growth of different groups of countries can be different from one another. On the same basis, it is not possible to conclude that various economic growth theories for different groups of countries obtain similar results, regarding the effectiveness of proxies on economic growth.

Whithin recent decades, investment in women's education and gender equality are important subjects that economists and policymakers are interested in. Educational gender inequality impacts negatively on human capital and therefor economic growth. Using simullaneous equation model and seemingly unrelated regressions (SUR) method, this paper investigates the direct and indirect impact of gender equality in education on economic growth. The sample includes developing countries over period 2000-2006. The results indicate that gender equalities in education have a statistically significant positive effect on economic growth. The results suggest that gender equality in education helps to promote economic growth directly in increasing human capital accumulation and indirectly in raising investment, in population growth planning. So, it's required that developing countries provide the promotion of educational gender equality by considering the role of women in economic development.

In attempt to determine causes of economic growth, financial development is a basic concept. The key question is whether the causality running from financial development to economic growth, or vice versa. Some economists argue that the financial sector does not have any effect on the real sector of economy. However, a large body of empirical research has found a robust relationship between financial development and economic growth. In order to study financial development in Iran, we use 5 indictors: the ratio of currency on hold to money stock (CM), the ratio of liquid liabilities to GDP (LLY), the ratio of credit allocated to private enterprises to total domestic credit (PRIVATE), credit allocated to private enterprises to GDP (PRIVY), ratio of commercial banks domestic assets to the banking system assets (BANK). For testing causality relationship between financial development and economic growth in terms of the above indicators, we use Granger causality test based on an autoregressive model, unit root and Cointegration tests. The results revealed that in the case of Iran, there is a two-way long-run causality relationship between LLY and economic growth. Also, one-way long-run causality relationship from PRIVY to economic growth, and so for multilateral index. In short-run the results suggest that causality running from GDP to PRIVY, but for other indicators the Granger causality is not accepted.

Since the housing investment is used as a political tool with intended effects on other areas of the economy than the housing market, in hence, this study try to investigate the relationship between housing investment and economic growth using econometrics techniques and using auto regressive distributed Lag.(ARDL), approach and quarterly data from 1371: 1-1385: 4 for Iran. Following this, using granger causality analysis, this paper examines the interaction between housing investment and economic growth. Therefore, this research finds significant and positive relationship between housing investment and economic growth in short run and long run in Iran. Result of granger causality approach showed bidirectional causality between housing investment and economic growth. The result of CUSUM and CUSUMSQ test also indicate that the long run relationship is stable.

Destination-based value added taxes (VATs) are commonly thought to encourage exports, while exports are exempt from tax but imports are taxed. Hence, it is a commonplace belief that value added tax encourages exports. The theory of international trade offers very different prediction. In the theoretical point of view, destination- based nature of VAT should have no effect on exports and imports. The reason is that exchange rate adjusts to undo the effects of VAT on exports and imports. Thus, in this study, the effect of value added tax on net exports has been examined in Iran and other Asian countries from 1985 to 2008. To this end, firstly a hypothesis is tested in which VATs affect net exports of the selected countries. Also, another hypothesis has been tested in which corporation income tax, as a domestic tax and an alternative of the value-added tax, affects net exports of the countries under consideration. For this purpose, this study has specified a theoretical and empirical net export model, and then has estimated the model by using the generalized method of moment (GMM).The estimation results show that value added tax has a negative effect on net exports in the short run. In addition, value added tax has been neutral and has had no impact on net exports in the long run. Unlike value added tax, corporation income tax has had a positive and significant effect on net exports in the short-run.

In the present study, effects of creation of regional integration agreements between ECO countries were assessed in the Smart partial equilibrium model. Therefore, the amount of trade creation and trade diversion was surveyed under the tariff reduction scenarios for trade of Iran and other members. The results showed that implementation of regional agreements between Iran and ECO countries, increases export of ECO countries to Iran than exports of Iran to ECO countries is higher. Therefore, reducing tariff rates in the form regional integration agreements, Iran will face with trade deficit equivalent to 24.472 million under the first scenario and 48.945 million dollars in the second scenario. Also, the results showed that a major part of the increase of imports due to trade creation and consequently increase imports from countries of ECO will be. So in order to obtain benefit of tariff rates reduction in regional integration agreements is recommended increasing regional trade and improvement of its structure in planning future for development of regional cooperation.