AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS: IRANIAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS (ECONOMICS AND AGRICULTURE JOURNAL)
Year:2018 | Volume:12 | Issue:2 |Papers Count:8

Iran's agricultural sector has a bilateral relations with major world markets, because of Exporters roles and on the other hand importers of inputs for the livestock industry. It is clear, due to the import of such transactions might be influenced by the price changing and global crisis. So in this study, we are modeling dependence among oil prices, exchange rate with prices of imported inputs of livestock industry in the period 1995-2004 (before the crisis) and 2005-2014 (after the crisis) with using the Copulas approach based on ARMA-MGARCH. Our results indicate that, prices of Corn, Soybean and Barley with Oil price in after crisis period has an high and positive correlation rather than before crisis period. For example the correlation between Oil price and Corn price are increase from 0. 05 in before crisis to 0. 20 in after crisis. So it seemed that Iraq-USA war, Global Financial Crisis and Global increase in food prices might be effective to our imported inputs in livestock industry.

Drought is accompanied with a reduction in agriculture and food products, thus it may represent a threat to food security in addition that can induce a reduction in households’ income. Given the relationship between agricultural and nonagricultural sectors, there needs to examine the drought effects comprehensively. To this end, in current study a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is applied to assess the effects of drought on households’ income and welfare as well as on food production index. Applied data were obtained from the social accounting matrix (SAM) of year1380 (2001). Drought, defined as lower access to water, was examined in three scenarios of weak (16%), moderate (36%) and sever options (47%). Welfare changes are measured by Hicksian equivalent variation (EV). The results indicated that the food production index was decreased by 5. 8 to 27. 8% according to the severity of drought. The corresponding values of welfare index are 6. 2-27. 1%. It was also found that drought induces a reduction in rural and urban households’ income, but reduction of income for rural households and especially for lower income groups is more than those for urban ones. The findings showed that terms of trade changes in favor of the agricultural sector, paving the way for investment in activities that increase scarce water resources productivity.

Rice prices, as a major component, create a link between the different levels of the market for this product, which is the main factor in determining the income level of farmers, traders and final suppliers. Therefore, the analysis of cross-price effects on each other is important in the various levels of the rice market. In this study, a case study of Kamfiroz brand was carried out to analyze and evaluate the price volatility spillover and price transmission in the Iranian rice market. For this purpose, monthly price data for the various levels of rice market from April 1977 to December 2015 and the models of multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic and vector error correction were used. The results showed that in the short run, positive price transmission from lower levels rice market to higher levels would not occur. Also, the producers of this product do not have enough power to positively influence the price of rice in the country's rice market. In addition, the results showed that there is a direct relationship between the lack of price transmission and price volatility spillover in the various levels of Kamfiroz brand rice market. Finally, in order to support rice producers in Kamfiroz district, it was suggested that government market regulation policies focus on supporting the wholesale price of this product and adjusting the supply and demand of country's rice market appropriately.

This paper uses Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimation, gravity model, and dynamic panel data to evaluate the effect of the imposed sanctions against Iran on the value of the bilateral trade of agricultural products between Iran and its trading partners among the MENA and the EU countries during 2000 to 2014. The results show that the sanctions have had no effects on the trade flows between Iran and the MENA countries. However, they have meaningful impact on the Iran’ s agricultural export to the EU countries, albeit they have caused a decrease in Iran’ s agricultural import from this area. The annual precipitation in Iran, as a control variable, using in this paper has positive effects on the Iran’ s agricultural export to the EU contries, nonetheless has negative effects on the Iran’ s import from the mentioned countries. The overall country size of two trading partners’ variable has meaningful and direct effects on the mutual trade between Iran and the EU countries. According to the above outcomes, the imposed sanctions should be considered as an apportunity to the Iranian agricultural development and diversification of exports from the agriculture sector to the EU region as a wide range of non-oil products to compensate some of the costs on the Iranian economy caused by sanctions.

This study examines the Fluctuation climate variability on the production of three main crops (wheat, barley and rice) in Khuzestan province in Iran. A panel data set with 105 observations is used. The results indicated that temperature and rainfall have negative effects on wheat yield. Also, temperature have negative effect and rainfall have positive effect on rice yield and these variables have negative effect on barley yield. On the other hand, changes in climate conditions lead to a decline in the yield of wheat, rice and barley by 0. 05%, 0. 032%, and 0. 021%, respectively. In addition, changes in climate condition in the period 1993-2013 have led to decline in economic profit by 58154. 01 thousands Rials for wheat, rice and barley in 2013. Based on the results of research, it is recommended that short-run and long-run weather forecasts to be taken into consideration to prepare and adopt the necessary measures to protect agricultural crops and prevent damage caused by adverse atmospheric and climatic factors in all stages of planting and harvesting.

Climate change is one of important issue in agricultural sector in Iran. Because this issue with affects crops’ yield that leads to increasing productivity risk. On the other hand inputs has effect on crops’ yield. So, the aim of this paper is investigating the effect of controlled inputs in production and climate factors on average and performance fluctuations in selected agricultural production in Khorasan Razavi province (wheat, barley) as strategic agricultural products over the period of 2011-2015 by using the Just & Pope model. The results show that in the function of the mean yield, a millimeter increase in the logarithm of precipitation leads to increase in the average yield of rain-fed wheat, rain-fed barely and blue barley at levels of 0. 11, 0. 04 and 0. 24 kg per hectare, and a reduction of 0. 57 kg per hectare for blue wheat. An increase of 1 degree Celsius in the logarithm the mean of maximum temperature leads to decrease by 0. 02, and 0. 1 kg per hectare in the mean yield of blue wheat and blue barely respectively, but the average yield of rain-fed wheat and barley increase by 1. 28 and 0. 17 kg per hectare respectively. Also, logarithm of the cropping area, mechanization coefficient, nitrogen fertilizer and pesticide had a positive effect on the mean yield. According to the results of the yield risk function, transmittance in precipitation leads to increase the yield risk in blue wheat, rain-fed wheat and rain-fed barely to 0. 27, 3. 65 and 2. 83 kg per hectare and increase in logarithm the mean of maximum temperature leads to decrease 0. 69, 5. 30 and 6. 13 kg per hectare in the yield risk of those products. Based on the results obtained in the function of mean and performance risk, risk management tools include Weather-Based insurance for agricultural products and the use of drought-resistant seed varieties, in order to prevent the risk of production and reduce the vulnerability of farmers to inputs and climatic factors is suggested.