Macroeconomic Research Letter
Year:2010 | Volume:10 | Issue:1 (37)|Papers Count:7

Chaotic theory suggests a new method for studying trends in markets and reveals the hidden pattern behind the data that common models can not define them. The usual tests for chaos are calculation of the largest Lyapunov exponent (Le) and strange attractors. A positive largest Lyapunov exponent indicates chaos. Positive amount of "Le" shows chaoticness of process and difficulty of predictability and when it is negative, it shows that process in the long run is non chaotic and predicable. If "Le" moves towards positive quantity near zero, chaotic system is weak and middle term predictability is possible. In this article, with regard to test of strange attractor and biggest Lyapunov exponent probability of chaos on several foreign exchange rates vs. IRR (Iranian Rial) from 1992/3/25 to 2007/5/23 and two artificial models with regard to the Takens embedding theorem have been investigated. Results show that data in this market have complex chaotic behavior with big degree of freedom, in addition; trend in Iran Exchange Market is not linear and we can not forecast it with common linear methods.

Iran is a major producer and exporter of dried fruits such as Pistachios, Raisins and Date in the world. And for that it has an appropriate position on the global market. After Turkey and U.S, Iran has the third rank in the production of raisins and the second rank of the world for exporting the raisins. The objective of this study is to investigate the effects of short and long-run fluctuations in exchange rates on export price of raisins by Autoregressive Distributed Lag model (ARDL).The data are collected from FAO and the Central Bank of Iran during the years 1350 to 1384 and analyzed using the software Microfit4. The ARDL model results show that in the long run real exchange rate is the main factor on export prices of raisins. Based on findings, it is offered that the monetary politics of the Central Bank should be scheduled in a way to prevent unpredictable exchange rate volatility.

In order to reduce informational risk of investors, initial public offerings (IPOs) in Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) are required to publish and forecast the forthcoming fiscal year’s earnings. This type of direct reporting is especially important in developing economies such as Iran. Because in Iran economy, financial analysts do not have an active role and investors rarely act as professionals.This study examined the existence of under pricing phenomenon and the relationship between the accuracy of earnings forecasts with initial stock returns in initial public offerings at TSE. Also it examined such a relationship with the existence of control variables. So the data employed in this paper covers the years of 1999-2006 and contains 107 initial listings on the TSE. The results indicated that similar to other countries, there is under pricing of IPO's in TSE and earnings forecast error is related to initial stock returns significantly. Therefore it suggests that investors can realize earnings forecast error and apply it in pricing of stock.

This paper is an empirical research about theory of Intra Industry Trade. It tries to describe the determinants of Intra Industry Trade that are important in trade of ECO countries and OECD countries trade. And, by using those, the nonlinear model of logistic function will be estimated. At the end, to compare and sampling, the intra industry trade in ECO and some of European countries will be analyzed. Results show that IIT index levels of ECO region are very less than industrialized countries, and confirm that the entire hypothesis of previous studies of IIT is determinants.

The main objective of this study is to investigate the effects of monetary variables on the nominal exchange rate during the years of 1961-2005 in Iran. To achieve this purpose, a monetary model of exchange rate determination is estimated using Johansen Juselius co-integration approach. The findings indicated that the difference of inflation and money liquidity variables have positive effect and difference of real GDP variable has negative and significant effect on nominal exchange rate in Iran economy.The main policy implication of this study is that, the government by using appropriate fiscal and monetary policies should control the domestic price level and liquidity money. Moreover, the government should accelerate the economic growth by using fiscal and monetary policy.

This study has been measured and analyzed factors influencing the Total Factor Productivity (TFP) in Iran economy. These factors were Human Capital, Economic Restructuring, Capital Structure, Demand Intensity and Technical Progress. Experimental studies using the econometrics techniques is done in Iran and it showed that, capital structure and technical progress (R& D), have a positive effect on total factor productivity. But this paper using different method i.e. Solow residual method, has been measured the effective factors on Total Factor Productivity. The results which are for the years of 1991-2006, show that human capital, capital structure and demand intensity perform the most positive impact on the total factor productivity growth. In contrast, not only the technical progress plays the role of inhibitors in the growth of TFP, but also, structural changes in different economy sectors and lack of efficiency in resource allocation in each section have a negative advantage on total factor productivity growth.