Journal of Spatial Planning
Year:2015 | Volume:19 | Issue:2 |Papers Count:8

Identifying the future uncertainties and fundamental assumptions in the regional development planning by which the long-term applications have been based on, is one of the main fields in detecting problems and facing challenges of developmental documents. Post-planning refers to the evaluation of success or failure in the developed policy and planning in the future time horizons. Assumption Based Planning (ABP) is one of the post-planning methods, which could be used in creating stable and adaptable programs. The objective of using the assumption based planning is to reduce the number of inevitable surprises. This research focuses on the relation and the value of each strategy in every probable uncertainties of Tehran Province in the vision 1404 and it is conducted to correct the long-term development strategies of Tehran Province in the program horizon. The analysis of long-term development strategies of Tehran Province is studied in domain consisting the economic field. This research is a combination of documentary and survey methods in terms of category and is based on new methods in the science of future studies, analytical and exploratory in terms of nature, which is conducted by a combination of qualitative and quantitative models. Hierarchical decision making, interactions analysis and Delphi methods are used in this research due its nature, and MicMac, Expert choice and SPSS software are used in within-data analysis. The results indicate that the economic domain has the highest vulnerable strategy. Therefore, weaknesses and drawbacks, existing in the long-term development plan of Tehran Province, could be identified and reexamined by utilizing ABP method.

Social inequality refers to the existing differences in resources that are in demand in a society. Ahvaz city, has witnessed several transformations in recent decades that it has become one of the country's major metropolises. The purpose of this study is to examine social inequality in city's districts. The research method is descriptive – analytic. For Data gathering, library and field method has been used. In the field method, questionnaire tool is used. Statistical sample of this study is householders of Shahrak-e-Naft, Golestan and Hasir Abad districts in Ahvaz city. According to findings of this research, as far as Hasir Abad residents have lower levels of social and economic, they experience a different lifestyle and have lower social benefits. Also, service quality in these districts are low. Consequently, citizens have little access to urban services.

Some factors are effective in good governance and the achievement of goals; of the most important factor is the political organizing of the space. Each government tries to act based on a specific cognitive image of its own territory of space to political organization of space and can be successful in making a self, Internalizing and depending on sense of place. But the political organization of the space has been done inappropriatel in some regions of Iran. For example in Ilam and West Azerbaijan provinces, in spite of having natural massive resources, has created huge regional challenges. The aim of this study that has been written by the descriptive-analytical method, is to evaluate the regional challenges in these two provinces is from prospective of space political organization. The research results shows that the inappropriateness of political organization of space, specially long and protracted shape of these provinces, has created many challenges for their affairs management; some of the important challenges can be referred to as: lack of creating structural and functional unity, long borders and more vulnerability, ethnic and tribal rivalries, lack of formatting a sense of belonging, disequilibrium development, lack of formatting of a regular communication network, lack of formatting development pole, interference of constituency with ethnic and tribal areas, ethnicity, tribalism and etc.

In this study, using monthly, quarterly and annual frequency data of days with thunderstorm of 25 long-term synoptic weather stations during the period 1960-2010 were analyzed. In addition, temporal analysis of thunderstorms was performed using ward's hierarchical cluster analysis the square Euclidean distance and Mann-Kendall non-parametric test. According to the results of cluster analysis, three climate regions with similar trends in the frequency of thunderstorms were identified which included North West and North-central, western and northeastern regions, southern part, the Caspian Sea coastal regions and central and eastern parts of the country. The results of temporal analysis of thunderstorm days in Iran showed that in terms of frequency, monthly occurrence of this phenomenon is mostly in May, April, June and October and transitional seasons of spring and autumn. In contrast, the lowest frequency of thunderstorm days is in August, September and January, and in summer and winter seasons. Moreover, considering the location, in monthly, seasonal and annual intervals, thunderstorms had higher frequency in the North West and West regions than compared to other regions of Iran. The trend of thunderstorms variation also indicates that changes in monthly, seasonal and annual time scales had an upward trend and based on Mann-Kendall test results, they were significantly meaningful.

Ahvaz metropolis due to its sensitive and unique position in the realms of energy strategy and geo-economic, geo-culture, and geostrategic position of Iran, has strategic position from the perspective of an urban passive defense for the Islamic Republic of Iran. Hence, it is the optimum model of locationspecific applications (vital and sensitive) with respect to adjacency issues and one of the passive defense requirements in this city. This study had extracted the location-proximity to vital and sensitive land use in Ahwaz after the recognition of the principles of passive defense and spatial position standards in place. This study is functional in terms of target and descriptive-analytic in terms of method. The study sample is consisted of all vital and sensitive land use categories, urban installations, facilities management, military-security, support and transportation within the city of Ahvaz. Prevailing approach to data analysis is position analysis and for analysis data the combined model of FGIS-FAHP has been used. In order to analyze the data, after extracting spatial standards, the map distances have been prepared according to the principles of proximity and vicinity in the Special lane use and after next maps overlay in the five named lane use, the fuzzy spatial models derived from particular lane use proximity. The Research findings have shown that 57% percent of especially land use was located in the critical zone of the high risk the principles of proximity between 29%-55% have been served. The results show that the region of 7 from principles of proximity Point of View are known as the most vulnerable area of the municipality of the City of Ahwaz and the region of 5 are known as the safest region in Ahvaz.