Journal of Economic Modelling
Year:2012 | Volume:6 | Issue:1 (17)|Papers Count:8

Location quotient is a non-statistical method which brakes technical coefficient and uses some especial treatment to adjust them for regional studies. This method has evolved during the time and its latest version is known as augmented AFLQ based on specialty sector. This article attempts to challenge this method by using the data of Tehran Province (2007) as a case study underlining the crucial cracks in it. This crucial crack is inability in truly adjusting backward linkage of the demand of weak sectors which make regionally weak sectors wrongly being considered as the key sectors of the demand side. At last, a method will be presented much more accurate in converting national table to regional table in which this crucial crack has been resolved.

The main objective of this study is to investigate the relationship between different oil products consumption and economic growth in Iran provinces. The basic question is whether the reduction of different oil products consumption caused by subsidy reform plan decelerates the economic growth or not? To answer this question, we use Panel Data model and quarterly data during 2000Q1-2006Q4 at provincial level. The results indicate that gasoline and gasoil consumption have positive and significant effect on economic growth of the provinces, such that the elasticity of provinces products compared to the gasoline and gasoil consumption is 0.22 and 0.19 respectively. The results also represent that the development expenditures of government and population have positive and significant effect on economic growth. The ratio of population elasticity to the production is larger than the ratio of the production elasticity to the development expenditures of government. According to this research, it can be argued that the limitation of oil products consumption can decelerate the economic growth in Iran provinces.

The experiences represented that the economic development along with irregular use of environment and ecological pollution make serious problems in developed countries. Economic activities will be mixed with increasing consumption of energy and emissions of greenhouse gas. Considering the importance of economic activities in developing countries, the relationship between economic activities and pollution will be so much significant. Therefore, the aim of this study is to examine the link and relation between economic activities and air pollution using input-output table in Iran, and so, to determine the sectors increasing air pollution more. The findings explained that transportation has the highest role in air pollution.

By using SD approach in this study, we have developed a dynamic model for the future of Iranian tourism industry and simulated it during 2007-2025. Besides, to understand the dynamics involved, the purpose of this study is to forecast the industry’s future and to observe the requirements to get the objectives in the horizon of 2025. The model designed includes three main sub-systems, namely; the demand for tourism, tourism activities, and tourism capacity building. By Vensim software, the simulation results of the model explain that, if the current rates of capacity development, advertisements, and human resource development activities continue in this industry, then, we will absorb only a demand about 5.5 million tourists in 2025, that is, well below the standard of 20 million tourists per year in the horizon of 2025. The results of the simulation reveal that, to reach the tourism objectives planned, firstly, 3 sub-systems mentioned above must be coordinated and worked well together, and secondly, some prompt actions should be planned to boost the effectiveness of advertisement, the training of workforce in this regard.

This paper investigates the effect of energy consumption on the production of industries having more than 9 employees in Iran. Hsiao’s Granger Causality and Granger Causality in Panel Data is used along with the data during 1995-2007 to study the issue. The findings represent that the energy consumption has a positive effect on the production of industries in Iran. Moreover, the results indicate that there is unilateral causality relationship between energy consumption and the value of industrial productions. Hence, the main implication policy of this study is that the policy makers should adopt the policies to improve the value of production in these sectors.

The purpose of this paper is to estimate recreational value of Jajroud area and to determine factors affecting on the visitors willing to pay by using Contingent Valuation Method. To this end, a Double-Bounded Dichotomous Choice questionnaire is employed to collect the data required by the use of a simple random sampling. Then, the role and importance of individual, social and economical factors will be investigated as well as the willingness to pay of visitors by Logit model and Maximum Likelihood Estimation method. Results indicate that more than 70 percent of respondents like to pay for recreational values of Jajroud area. In addition, the results of Logit model present that the variables of bid, age and size of families have significant negative effect on the individuals' WTP, while the variables of education, income, area attractiveness and individual concerns of environment have significant positive impact on WTP. Moreover, the optimum bid is about 5700 Rials and the annual recreational value of region is 4595 million Rials.

The main purpose of this study is to identify the capabilities and potentials of industrial sector in Gilan Province to direct the private sector investments toward these industries. For this purpose, we used a method mixed of factor analysis, numerical taxonomy, cluster analysis by indexes related to the subject in industrial activities of the province during 2001-2009 in terms of ISIC (3rd Edition), and then by mixing the results obtained, the industries existing in province are divided in two priorities; the first and the second priority. Industrial activities related to the codes 152; production of dairies products, 171; spinning, knitting and completing textile, 172; production of other textile, 181; clothing production except the fur clothing, 201; sawing and grating of wood, 222; printing and service activities related to printing, 232; production of oil products refined, 242; other chemical products, 251; production of tire products except shoes, 281; production of metal construction products, reservoirs and steam generators, 343; production of motor vehicles parts and their motors and 361; production of furniture are the activities having next priorities in Gilan province to be invested.