Journal of Economic Studies and Policies
Year:2021 | Volume:7 | Issue:2 (14)|Papers Count:13

The development of the insurance industry as a central institution of reduction of financial risk and one of the investment institutions can increase community participation in the economy, accelerate the process of capital formation and improve economic growth. Therefore, examine the factors affecting the development of the insurance industry in order to increase economic growth and improving social welfare in developing countries unsuccessful in develop the insurance industry seems necessary. In this regard, the present study tried to investigate the effect of economic incentive and the institutional regimes, innovation systems, education and human resources and ICT infrastructures as components of knowledge-based economy on insurance penetration as an alternative indicator of development of the insurance industry in selected developing countries in the during the period 2002-2017. For this purpose, the research model estimated using panel data and generalized moments method. The results showed that the effect of economic incentive and the institutional regimes, innovation systems, education and human resources and ICT infrastructures on the insurance penetration is positive and significant. Of course, the effect of the component of economic incentive and institutional regime has been greater than other components. Also, the effect of control variables including per capita income, inflation rate and unemployment rate on insurance penetration respectively were positive and significant, negative and significant and negative and significant.

The phenomenon of riba is strictly forbidden in Islam. In the past, there was not much difference of opinion in the conceptual conception of riba. But the developments of the new era, have forced a group to reconsider the conceptual scope riba with the same common jurisprudential methods. Linguistic studies, on the other hand, are a new look at sacred texts and religious sources that can be accompanied by new achievements. This paper examines, the principled view in two ways: structural and functional linguistics. The present article examines the scope of riba in Quranic verses in two ways, in addition to the usual method, using descriptive methods and content analysis using library resources. It is not the authority of the preacher and the incompleteness of the precepts of wisdom, but the addressees of the verses of the sanctity of riba that are only for the believers and the rich, and cannot be generalized to the whole of society by refining manat. "Riba" can be replaced "soht" and. . . Therefore, it is haraam in Islam to take the example of haraam eating, bribery, and mischief, and to receive it by force. Also, according to the sectarian method, "Riba" is known in the context of that society and the verses consider the avoidance of riba as the result of a cognitive reaction.

Given the high exchange rate fluctuations in Iran, its prediction is one of the major issues and challenges for different groups in the country. This study investigates the performance of six different static and dynamic neural networks for forecasting exchange rates using fundamental, technical and hybrid approaches and using seasonal data over the period 2004(1)-2018(4) for variables influencing exchange rate including inflation, Liquidity and GDP for the two countries, Iran and the United States. The findings show that the number of neurons did not have a regular effect on the performance of the networks and that the best results occurred at breaks of three and four. The results also show that the best performance of the static neural network is achieved by a technical approach with a structure of sixteen neurons and four interruptions which provides a relatively accurate exchange rate prediction despite the low number of input data. The second suitable function is related to the combined static network with the structure of ten neurons and two interruptions. With this in mind, policymakers can, given the greater and more up-to-date access to data affecting the exchange rate and by monitoring the instantaneous variables and entering them into the comprehensive model designed using this method, the rate of exchange rate deviation Examine the existing model and exchange rate and adopt appropriate policies based on this, so that the losses on the domestic and foreign sectors of the economy are due to the predicted rate gap and the current exchange rate is at a minimum.

Monetary policy opposed to business cycle is a policy that economists propose to reduce economic volatility. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the nonlinear correlation between business cycle and monetary policy in Iranian economy. For this purpose, statistical data of the period 1368-1397 were used based on the frequency of seasonal data. The approach used in this paper is to use the Cristiano-FiltersGeral (CF) pass-through filter to derive the business cycle, use the Kalman filter to estimate the target inflation rate, and the Markov Switching (MS) method to estimate the monetary response function over the period. The trade was in the gap of production and inflation. The results of this study indicate that the monetary policy maker's reaction to the output gap and inflation was negative and significant, but the intensity of the reaction was quite different during the boom and stagnation period, indicating a nonlinear relationship between economic variables during the business cycle and Monetary policy has been in the Iranian economy.

In the past, it was believed that fiscal policy did not play an effective role in business cycles. Investigate the effect of financial policy on Iran's business cycles during the years 1344-1396. Therefore, in the present study, the role of financial policy variable along with a set of macroeconomic variables in creating business cycles, in the form of a self-explanatory structural analysis (SVAR) model. In this regard, government spending is used as an indicator for fiscal policy, and the variables of growth rate of GDP, real growth rate of real money volume, growth rate of import of goods are considered as macro variables. The results suggest that the structural shock of government spending has had a negative impact on the business cycle.

Achieving economic growth and price stability through monetary, fiscal and exchange rate policies requires coordination. The purpose of this paper was to investigate the relationship between the volatility of these policies in Iran over1357-1396 periods. So that VAR approaches was used. Using the EGARCH method, the volatility of tax revenue, government expenditure, liquidity, interest rate and real exchange rate were estimated. The results of the impulse response test showed that in the long run, monetary policy volatility (liquidity) has a direct impact on financial policy volatility. Also, the volatility of fiscal policy has a negative effect on the volatility of monetary policy (liquidity), but it has not affected the volatility of interest rates. According to the results, financial policy volatility (government expenditures) leading to an increase in real exchange rate volatility and monetary policy volatility (liquidity) also has a negative impact on real exchange rate volatility. Thus, it can be seen that the fiscal policies resulting from government spending and the monetary policies resulting from the volume of liquidity affect each other. They also have significant long-term effects on real exchange rate volatility.

The goal of this research is to design mechanism of profit rate formation in Iranian banking system such that guarantees allocation efficiency. To this aim, it analyzes pricing mechanism from point of Islamic Scholars using an Islamic jurisprudential method of research. The results show that in a normal condition, setting the prices including banks profit rates, is forbidden and is in contrast to the Sharia Principles. Accordingly, this research proposes mechanism of profit rate formation based on truth and justice and an asset-based interbank money market. In this framework, central bank sets corridor of rates and banks finance firms by issuing commercial papers. Papers rates set based on return in real sector of economy and profit rate in banking system set by transaction of papers in the market.

Vulnerability, resilience, and adaptation are essentially complex and interrelated concepts in research communities such as natural hazards, environmental changes, medical, engineering, management, social science, economics, etc. However, since these concepts encompass a broad range of topics, it should be no surprise that their definitions are very diverse and their interrelationships are still unclear. To remove the gap between different definitions and conceptual relevance of vulnerability, resilience, adaptation, and resistive economy, and to avoid confronting paradoxes such as Singapore paradox, wrong categorizing and policymaking, a brief overview of the main definitions and evolutionary processes of these concepts is performed. Also based on the “ Shock-Damage-Recovery-Learning” cycle, a conceptual framework is introduced to present the relationships between them. In order to summarize the analytical framework of vulnerability, resilience, and adaption as well as the resistive economy as a corresponding concept of resilience, this study shows that a sustainable development strategy not only should seek to reduce the vulnerability of an economic system but also it should increase its resilience and adaptive capacity to cope with shocks, uncertainties, and potential future risks.

The main purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship and effects of financial cycles on economic growth cycles by using uncertainty in the model. One of the appropriate techniques in the model is the Bayesian Model Averaging. This study consider the strong affecting factors of the financial cycles on the economic growth cycles in Iran during period 2009 to 2018. The studied variables are GDP, Total Index of Tehran Stock Exchange, Average Cost per Square Meter, Govermental and nongovernmental Current Credit, oil Revenues and Government current payments. First, the cycles are extracted by using the Hodrick– Prescott (HP) filter. Then, the relationship between financial cycles and economic growth cycles is investigated using the Granger causality test. The results show bilateral causal relationship between the Variables Exception of current credit with economic growth cycles. Finally, estimation of eight regressions and Bayesian model averaging of the coefficients show that all five explanatory variables have been identified as the most important factors on the economic growth cycles in Iran. Also, we determine the variables of the Stock Exchange Index, current credit and current payments have the positive effect on the economic growth cycles, and the variables of the housing and oil revenues cycles have the negative effect on the economic growth cycles index. The results of this study can be used by macroeconomic planners from a policy viewpoint.

The present article examines the relationship between inflation and exchange rate by considering the foreign exchange market pressure index and the degree of central bank's intervention in Iran's economy using Weymark model (1995) and SVAR structural self-regression model based on seasonal data for the years 1370-1397. Based on the results of estimating the Weymark model (1995), Iran's foreign exchange market has experienced an increase in pressure in the foreign exchange market in 91 out of 111 chapters in order to prevent the devaluation of the rial. Also, according to the results of SVAR model estimation, a shock from the oil revenue, a shock from the foreign exchange market pressure and a shock from the central bank's intervention have caused an increase of 26%, 28% and 56% increase in inflation in the country, respectively. It can be concluded that as the impulse in government foreign exchange earnings increases, the growth of the central bank's foreign exchange reserves will decrease. the central bank is forced to step up its intervention to reduce inflation in the foreign exchange market to prevent traders from attacking. Also, the calculation of the foreign exchange market pressure index indicates that the highest numbers obtained for this index are related to the time when the gap between the free exchange rate and the official exchange rate has increased.

The present study was conducted aiming to design a model for realization of real estate income tax in Tabriz city with due attention to the procedure of tax collection. For the complexity of the issue system dynamics was selected as the appropriate methodology for modeling. According to the mentioned methodology at first the boundary of the model was investigated. At this stage the key variables were identified including “ tax payment” , “ real estate” , “ tax evasion” , “ investment motivation” , “ economic rent and speculation in properties” , and “ advertisement for tax collection” . At the second stage the interaction among research variables dynamic hypothesis of the study was illustrated using subsystem, casual-loop diagrams and stock-flow map. At the third stage benefiting from related literature and expertise opinion, causality relations were defined in the form of mathematical functions and the model was simulated in Vensim software. After testing the model, applicable scenarios were assessed. The results showed that informing related affairs to tax returns had great effect on paid tax by taxable entities. Tax transparency at the face of taxpayers contributed to reduction in economic rent and tax evasion. Also, analysis of the scenarios showed that in spite of current policies, tax rate reduction through self-declaration increased and resulted in increasing tax revenues.

The purpose of this study is to add the intangible capital to real business cycle models in general equilibrium model. In this framework, the dynamics of the economy and value premium puzzle are also examined. Due to the limitations existing in similar studies for the stock market in Iran, it is essential to add the intangible capital to general equilibrium model for Iranian stock market. Then, value premium puzzle in different situations were compared and analyzed. In this regard, four different regressions are carried out. In order to analyze the data, the Dynare program in the MATLAB software environment is used based on the Markov chain Monte Carlo within the framework of the metropolis-Hastings Algorithm. The results indicate that the addition of intangible capital to the real business cycle model can cause the reduction of the volatility in the growth of physical capital as well as the increase of its efficiency. In addition, the results demonstrate that a model employing intangible capital is susceptible to a higher risk premium for the physical capital in comparison to intangible capital. Therefore, it is concluded that a model with intangible capital is better than the other models explaining the value premium of the stock market in Iran.