MAJLIS & RAHBORD
Year:2016 | Volume:23 | Issue:86|Papers Count:12

‘Iran’s futures studies’ research is accomplished to examine trends, challenges and probable variables ahead, by gathering and organizing citizens and experts’ viewpoints, then, representing it in order to make readiness for a variety of possible, probable and desirable futures ahead of Iran’s society. To achieve this purpose, four steps is took including of 1) general polls to identify variables, 2) rating variables by selected experts, 3) holding expert panels to identify cross impacts among variables, 4) software and statistical analyses of cross impact matrix. After identifying the first 100 variables, it is used ‘structural analysis’ method and MICMAC software considered one of the ‘Strategic Foresight’ tools, in order to integrated analysis of cross impacts among variables. Finding of this research indicate that the most significant variables of Iran in 1394sh (March 2015 – March 2016) having the most effectiveness and dependencies over the other variables simultaneously, include ‘Social Capital’, ‘Policital Conflicts of Power Flows’ and ‘Islamic Consultative Assembly Election’, though ‘the Destination of Nuclear File’ is the most paramount one ahead.

After the Islamic Revolution, at August 28th, 1983, the Riba (interest) -free banking act was enacted. With the approval of Riba (interest) -free banking, banks were required to compliance principles and conditions for the removal of usury banking system and the central bank was obliged to carry out its assigned tasks, including adoption and enforcement of monetary policy in the context of their Riba (interest) -free banking. While eliciting monetary policy since the beginning 1984 to 2014, this paper presents deal with level of compliance with the Riba (interest) -free banking policies and rules and for this, divides the foregoing time span to six periods as per five development plans and in each period, while extracting monetary policies, takes level of compliance with the Riba (interest) -free banking policies into account and as a results, the applied monetary policies are classified in five classes. Then it summarizes the reasons for the lack of consistency of policies with Riba (interest) -free banking and damage in the policy and shed lights on approval banking and monetary policies that led to the adoption of policies and practices in illegal manner contrary to the Riba (interest) -free banking and finally it put forwards some approaches to obviate these challenges. Research Methodology in this article is attributive libraries.

Sometimes due to the fault of another, a "person" losses the chance to obtain the benefit or avoid the future loss, so that the mere loss of chance is considered as direct damage and not to compensate this such chance has a corrupt consequence and is against fairness, then increases the other acts of guilt in which its compensation cause to avoid such acts. The loss of chance is discussed in both matters of civil liability and contractual affairs; each of them (civil and contractual liability) can apply as avoiding the loss or obtaining the benefit. This is not yet clear in Islamic jurisprudence and domestic law. Of course in Islamic jurisprudence by accepting the loss compensation due to indisputable loss of profits and make a risk, this theory has been applied to some sort. In objective law this responsibility is accepted in contracts such as Bailment of a Capital, Reward and Article 6 of civil responsibility law, but it cannot obtain a rule in the. The main question of this research is that whether the damage caused by the lost chance is irreparable or not? The hypothesis of this research appears that the opportunity death of obtaining benefit or avoid the loss cause the responsibility. The findings of this research show the responsibility of the lost chance and opportunity including civil responsibility in a strict sense on one hand, and the other hand it includes contract responsibility. So it is obvious that fundaments of each of these responsibilities should be compensated for the fulfillment capabilities, otherwise, there is so doubt in non compensation of such loss due to not come to pass the fundaments of these two responsibilities.

A lot of scholars such as Schwartz, Barney and Feldman argue that political spectrum of voters in elections is mainly founded on value priorities which enjoy higher significance in their lives. Accordingly, the present study is aimed at studying and investigating the relationship between value priorities and political orientations of citizens of the City of Isfahan. The research method in terms of data collection and data analysis is survey research. The present study was carried out on 345 participants selected from different areas of the city. To collect data, a questionnaire was used. The reliability of the questionnaire was assessed using factor analysis and formal analysis, and its reliability was evaluated using Cronbach’s alpha coefficient.The data were analyzed using the SPSS. To evaluate variables, the Schwartz Value Priorities Inventory and Inglehart’s 10-point Political Spectrum Scale were used. The results indicated that firstly, the component of transcendental values have the highest degree and synergistic values have the lowest degree among the participants.In addition, the results of multiple regression analysis indicated that while value patterns explain 0.09 of the variance of citizens’ political orientations, the total of 6 variables of social gaps (gaps of age, education, ethnicity, gender, religion, and the income level) explain 0.10 of the variance of their political orientations. This issue indicates the high significance of value priorities in predicting citizens’ political orientations. Furthermore, the results of the research indicated that two value variables of protection and synergy are significantly effective on participants’ poetical orientations. This is while that the value priority of protection causes the increase in the possibility of citizens’ tendency to Conservatism, but value priority of synergy causes their tendency towards Reformism. The results also indicted that there is no significant correlation between values of Readiness for change and transcendence and citizens’ political orientation.

What effective procedures can be implemented to prevent the emigration of the scientific elites successfully? The primary concern of the article is to present a sociological analysis of the responses of the members of Elite National Foundation in Mazandaran province to the above question. The common points derived from the study of given responses for the study of effective factors in emigration and efficient procedures for the prevention of the scientific elites was, firstly that these factors for emigration and also preventive procedures are different and various and, secondly that these factors and procedures depend not only on the individual characteristics of the elites but also on social factors and circumstances (Sociological analysis). Although, from the tested subjects’ point of view, most of these given factors and responses were associated with the circumstances and the quality of social agents’ performance and were extrinsic, coming from extra-scientific contexts (Externalist Approach), rather than intrinsic, associated with social circumstances and scientific institution (Internalist Approach), the correction and reformation of certain deficient and flawed policy both in social environment and out of science context as well as the interaction between them, they believe, can be a successful solution for the prevention of scientific elites.

In the developing countries the central governments play mainly the major role in society. In these societies the distribution of wealth is not fairly that leads to economic hardship and social exclusion as the base of corruption. For this reason considering the financial, controlling and monitoring indicators are deniable. And it should change the controlling indicators according to economic development in order to fight against financial fraud as one of the economic picky component. In this manner recognition of effective parameters on financial fraud is absolutely essential. In this article by utilization of the related studies and interviewing with experts, the effective parameters on financial fraud were identified. Afterwards by using of collected data from 388 questionnaires besides Topsis fuzzy approach, these parameters were prioritized. According to the results the main causes of this problem are: the dependence of central bank, lack of efficient controlling and monitoring system besides other causes, which have been presented by a preventive methods and suggestions.

The creation of new firms and the growth of existing firms are considered as two key factors to increase the production in the economic literature. Whereas, in comparison to the first factor, the growth of existing firms, especially when the main fraction of firm' s capacity is left unused and in other words, the production level is less than optimal size, provides the basis for efficient allocation of production resources such as labor and capital. Accordingly, this paper attempts to estimate the optimal capacity and compare it with existing capacities of manufacturing industries to examine the increase of production by the growth of existing firms during 2005 to 2007. To estimate the optimal size of firms with ten and more employees in terms of production, the Comanor & Wilson Approach is used at the four-digit industry levels. The results indicate that more than 90 percent of manufacturing firms produce less than their optimal size and if the firms increase the production to achieve this size, the production level will increase at least by three to four times. Whereas, also in terms of the policy, achievement to the optimal size is very necessary to efficient allocation of production resources and thus increase national production in the industrial sector.

Some analysts believe that the technological revolutions in areas such as shale energy and application of new digging technologies have resulted in the aweakening of the priority of the Persian Gulf position as the world's center of gravity and world energy supply heartland as well as influencing the international equations and global power structures in the waning years, because, by cutting and reducing the dependence of some major energy importing countries including the United States of America, the political and military presence and spending priorities towards providing energy security cannot be justified as before. What is possible to investigate is relying on new technologies to extract oil and gas from unconventional reserves and independence from U.S oil imports, changing the country's energy consumption patterns, changing the supply and demand, and the seller and the buyer (according to Energy Outlook 2030 report of the International Energy Agency).The authors hold to review the developments made in this area and the reliable capacity of supplies extraction and transmission, in order to address their influence on the importance of Persian Gulf status and position. Although reducing the importance of the Persian Gulf in providing energy supplies for the countries such as America with the ability to extract the unconventional reserves, is likely to occur, what practically takes place is the increasing of Asian countries' demands on the one hand, and the continuing presence of United States to control the energy resources and its competitors in the other hand. Therefore the region will continue to remain as the America's foreign policy priorities and also a great arena of power competition in order to control the energy resources.

The current environment is continuously changing and in line with the changes and improvements, The complexity also is increasing. Now To accordance with these changes and developments and its complications, what predictions and arrangements should be considered? Organizations and companies what tools are need to survive and prosper in this environment? There is a paradigmatic that accepted by all experts in the field of management and organization, the existence of a comprehensive strategy and flexible that can guarantee leading organizations. Again, the question arises that whether only the establishment of an ideal strategy is enough? The main purpose of the article is responding to this question; because we checked whatever in studies, we concluded that the design of a good strategy is not guarantee of achieving to the desired results. Type of study is review study and in terms of the method is a descriptive study. The results from this study express that what are reasons of failure the strategies and were not good expected results. The items that can be one of the causes of failure and poor results of the implementation of the strategies mentioned, Implementation incorrectly and lack of the stage before it that is the "execution of strategy". In this article we have tried to express the most important stage of the Implementation and execution of strategy and described barriers in stages of strategy.

Citizen participation in a metropolitan area means the manifestation of serious presence, active, deliberate, voluntary, effective and organized participation of society foundations (individuals, families, groups, public and private institutions and departments) in economic, social and cultural activities of individual life in order to achieve social development goals in a metropolitan reign. A concept which has been combined with metropolitan areas governance ideas as a fundamental principle for managing and planning in these areas in recent years, and applied not only in participation in the execution of plans and projects and city social and economic issues, but also in the "selection of managers of different levels of city-reigns". Tehran metropolitan areas, as the most prominent metropolitan area in Iran; is one of the vast and important areas of Iran, in which citizen participation encountered great challenges due to the multiplicity, diversity and plurality of increased its actors. Although Council of Minsters accepted Tehran as a metropolitan are in Iran settlement (1995), lacks metropolitan governance structures and integrated, area-based and decentralized management and practically didn’t have the efficient capacity to absorb democratic participation of citizens and institutions arising from their votes and attitudes. The goal of this study is to evaluate the procedural and substantive challenges in noncooperative mechanisms in the management and planning of this metropolitan area in Iran. Research method in this study is developmental in terms of goal and descriptive analysis in term of design. This study, by considering broad patterns of urban management and compliance and localization of patterns, administrative procedures, superior rules and geographical, historical and social situations in Tehran, suggests two scenarios with priority among four scenarios, an indirect method to elect the metropolitan area manager and direct election of metropolitan council after preparing the context for the direct election of metropolitan area manager and direct election of metropolitan council.

The stock market is an integral part of the financial sector, which in turn is related to the economic growth. In fact, the stock market to disperse the risk with higher returns rates can be more efficient savings allocation between the investment opportunities. Although several factors have impact on the development of the stock market, but the economic freedom had significant impact on the stock price index and cash return as the stock market indices. In fact, economic structure weak and closed space as the main cause of underdevelopment is the stock market in these countries. So purpose study present, study economic freedom on index stock prices and cash returns in the period 1998-2013 with seasonal data. Results estimate econometrics suggests that economic freedom is impact positive and significant on index stock prices and cash returns Iran. Too every one from component index of economic freedom separately except government size is impact positive and significant on index stock prices and cash returns.As well as control variables such as real exchange rate and the ratio of gross fixed capital formation to GDP was Impact positive and significant on index stock prices and cash returns Iran. While the other control variables, bank deposit rates, Liquidity ratio to GDP was impact negative and significant on index stock prices and cash returns Iran.

Despite of all efforts, privatization has become a stable problem in the area of policy making for all different states in Iran since the first start in 1992; however all nationalfive development programs embodied a strong economic driver for privatization policy, but their objectives did not come to reality. This study aims to focus on pathology of this unsuccessfulness by finding out the real causes of this trend. In order to reach to an exact insight, this study appliesa grounded theory approach to the problem; which is an explorative and qualitative method; so many interviews are arranged with the managers and executives in privatization sectors. Based on the results of these interviews and coding them in grounded theory methodology along with literature review studies; all extracted fundamental factors are categorized in four distinct groups; economic, political, social and cultural. Based on this categorization, exit ways of the current unfavorable condition is delineated. The results and also the method of this research provides an applied framework to find out the main causes of this long-term national problem, which can be usedby policy makers to have a true vision about the important future yearsand be able to compensate the previous backwardness in this regard. Previous successful international cases emphasize on the correctness of privatization policy as a true solution to exit the inborn challenges of governmental economics and also the fluctuations of current world; this study states that privatization is the long-term real solution of economic growth & development for Iran.