Financial Economics
Year:2009 | Volume:2 | Issue:7|Papers Count:8

Tourism is a rapid growing phenomenon and has become one of the largest industries in the world. The impact of tourism is extremely varied. On one hand, tourism plays an important and certainly also positive role in the socioeconomic and political development in destination countries, for instance by offering new employment opportunities. Tourism may also in certain instances contribute to a broader cultural understanding by creating an awareness respecting the diversity of cultures and ways of life. On the other hand, tourism as a tool to create jobs has not fulfilled its expectations. At the same time, complaints from tourist destinations concerning massive negative impacts upon environment, culture and ways of life of the residents have given rise to a demand for a more sustainable development in tourism.The introduction of tourism will imply an increased stress on resources available and the tourism industry is very resource-and land intensive. An influx of tourists into the area leads to a competition for resources. This competition is compounded by employees working at the tourist sites.Almost as a rule tourists are supplied at the expense of the local population.Following Leamer (1984), standard Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek (HOV) equations incorporating measures of factor endowments are used to explain observed trade patterns. The advantage of focusing on trade patterns is that they can be analyzed through conventional theories of comparative advantage.To test whether natural sources distort patterns of tourism's trade, variables representing the natural sources are added to the HOV equations and the coefficients tested for significance. We examine the relationship between factor endowments, natural sources and tourism's net exports by Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek (HOV) model in the 15 European countries.The results indicate the travel & tourism sector employment and energy use have negative effects, but arable land, forest area and fixed investment expenditure have positive effect on tourism's trade. The renewable internal freshwater resources flows' region is not significant in attracting tourists.

This research is trying to analyse and recognize the variables effecting OECD countries environment.As an index for measuring the environment pollution, we use CO2 emission, than using a panel data econometrics model to analyse the effects of economics growth and Good Governance on CO2 emission. The results show no considerable effects from these variables.Considering the history of using Green Tax in these countries, we used an econometrics model to see the effect of Green Tax on CO2 emission in OECD countries. The outcome supports the strong effect of Green Tax on CO2 emission in OECD countries.

The Oil shocks in 1943 and its effects on international economics have created many attention on oil increase prices by economists. The oil shocks in 1986 and its asymmetric influences between economic growth and oil shocks economist has focused on this relations. In this study we investigated oil shocks effects on economic growth and inflation rate in exporter and importer oil countries. with using panel data method. during 1970-2005 we found that oil shocks fluctuation has significant affect on economic growth and inflation rate in both countries.

Since the highly complicated Time Series such as Stock Market Prices are usually stochastic, their changes are assumed to be unpredictable.Some tests which have been used to study the statistical observations related to the economical variables e.g. Stock Market Price, are often go wrong while encountering the chaotic data and recognize them as stochastic ones, though these data are actually generated from the deterministic systems which bear few tribulations.For this reason the predictable and non-linear tests such as HURST, BDS, Runs Test, and Correlation Dimension have been used to study the existence of deterministic chaotic trend and non-linear process in Time Series of Daily Stock Market Price Index of TEHRAN STOCK EXCHANGE from 23rd October, 2000 to 24th September, 2007.The result of the above mentioned tests shows the predictability and the existence of a non-linear process in the sample data.After the illustration of predictability and the non-linear process in daily stock index data, then the linear time series models (AR), non-linear (GARCH) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) have been estimated to present a suitable model for predicting the Stock Price Index.Comparing the potential of predictability of these models by such criteria as: CDC, RMSE, MAE, MAPE and U-THEIL inequality coefficient, it has been revealed that there is the highest potential of predictability in Artificial Neural Network models than the other ones.

Drought is a random characteristic of natural phenomena, brought about by the irregular deficit or shortage of available water, affects injuriously the plant growth and reduces their yield. Drought does not begin when rain ceases but rather only when plant roots can no longer obtain soil moisture in needed amounts. To estimate the intensity and the frequency of droughts will help to reduce the injurious effect of drought. In this Study we used the water- budget methods and Thornthwaite's aridity index and its standard deviation for Shiraz during 1951-2009 to show the frequency and the intensity of drought effects in this place. During this period this station is faced 35 times different type of droughts on that five time severe and from the years of 2000 its severity and intensity is increased. We also find out that every ten year this station will affect 3 times severe type of drought. The most severe drought was the years 2001, and it was repeated lower intensity in the year of 2008.

The rapid increase in petrol consumption in years, as well as the current restrictions regarding meeting the increasing demand for petrol with production or via import, has made executive officials, including the Ministry of Oil, warn about the current trend. They have announced that if the current situation goes on, we will be faced with a crisis. Meeting such a demand is not possible both technically and financially, and we will soon encounter a dead lock situation while the increasing import of petrol is a burden to the annual budget. The availability of rich resources of natural gas in the country as an alternative to petrol to be used in public transport has made this issue one of the priorities of the energy sector. The were five scenarios assumed for the plan and the plan was studied in terms of whether or not implementing the plan would be economically beneficial in either of those scenarios. The current study analyzed the scenario in which the modification the taxis of Tehran (into running on natural gas) has been taken into consideration. Model results were analyzed according to the main scenario and the results showed that replacing natural gas with petrochemical products in the public transport is considerably beneficial, and that such a plan is economically justifiable.

Strong infrastructure cause reduction in transportation costs that this reduction is a motivation for entering regional and multinational firms and attraction of foreign investment. The aim of this research is to study the effect of transportation infrastructure on foreign direct investment in Iran during 1974-2007. By using time series econometric measuring, Johansen Co integration method the long-run relationship has been investigated and according to Error Correction method the short-run relations have been studied. The results show that transportation infrastructure has significantly and positive effect on foreign direct investment by coefficient of 2.22. But in short-run there is no causative relationship between capital stock of transportation on foreign direct investment.

Conspicuously enough, UN-MDG (Millennium Development Goals) indexes cover the various aspects of economic development in countries. Indeed, MDGs are collection from the World Bank and the IMF indexes which were used for monitoring economics status and every member of the UN is subjected to report the required data in former designed format and frequency. Furthermore reported data and usage of indexes provide tremendous chance to compare the countries with each other.In the year 2004, Iran has adopted a strategic vision named "Iran 1404"which is suggested that Iran is going to be the 1st country in the ME and CA region in economic, social, cultural aspects. BY using almost 20 years long data of MDG indexes and the use of ADF and ARIMA time series models the index values of countries in 2015 are estimated and in the result by ranking Iran position among Middle Eastern and central Asian countries in the year 2015 is forecasted. Due to lack of data in some indexes a combination of graphical trend analysis and ARIMA models are used.In conclusion in the year 2015 Iran would be in the 5 high rank countries in the 1st, 2nd, 7th goals of MDG.