JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECONOMICS STUDIES IN IRAN
Year:2022 | Volume:11 | Issue:42|Papers Count:10

The purpose of this study, regarding the characteristics of an oil economy such as Iran, is to choose the Ramsey optimal monetary policy and appropriate exchange rate system. The model includes Ricardian and non-Ricardian households, nominal rigidity (in price level and wages) and real rigidity (in consumption), public goods, oil and non-oil exports, different exchange systems (float, managed floating, and fixed), and different targets in the real and monetary sector for the central bank. Also, the consequences of implementing the Ramsey optimal monetary policy versus the current state of the country were examined. Finally, the effects of oil prices shocks, foreign inflation shock, money supply shock, and nominal exchange rate growth shocks on macro variables under the base model and Ramsey’, s optimal monetary policy were examined. The results show that, first, the central bank should choose and commit to the managed floating exchange rate system among different exchange systems and dual-targeting (production and inflation with more focus on production) among different targeting policies. Although the fixed exchange rate system has a much smaller loss function than others, it is not feasible due to the instability of the economy. Second, the central bank’, s commitment to an optimal policy makes the monetary and real sectors of the economy much less volatile and much more stable versus monetary and foreign currency shocks compared to the base model. In faced with external shocks, Ramsey’, s optimal monetary policy gives more stability to the real sector of the economy in lieu of more volatility and stability in monetary variables.

In recent centuries, many natural disasters such as floods and droughts have appeared and have had many adverse effects on many countries. Natural disaster is one of the significant environmental challenges globally and has serious socioeconomic consequences in countries. In the recent literature, natural disasters have also been regarded as the greatest ongoing threat to human societies. The frequency and severity of natural disasters such as droughts and floods have shown an increasing trend around the globe. Evidence points to the fact that these natural disasters have significant adverse effects on crop yield, food security,there is a need to conduct micro-level studies that help generate empirical evidence on the impact of such disasters on the indicators of food security and food consumption in developing countries. Iran is one of the most disaster-prone regions in the world. Natural disasters frequently influence it and cause devastating damage. Depending on their intensity and duration, these disasters can affect consumer behavior. This study examines the effects of floods consumption in Iran in 2019 and 2020. For this purpose, the Difference-In-Differences (DID) model was applied to analyze. The data were obtained from the Statistical Center of Iran and covered the 3021 urban and rural households in Fars, Kerman, Khuzestan, Hamedan, Golestan, and Esfahan provinces. The results show that families who experience the shock of floods reduce food consumption. In other word, floods reduce all group of food consumption quantity. Results show that floods reduce tobacco expenditures, though increase, energy, transportation, and health care expenditures.

In Iran’, s economy, tax revenue has constructed a significant part of government’, s financial resources in recent years,based on the Central Bank of Iran (CBI) in 2017, about 45% of the government’, s financial resources were tax revenue. Considering different components of the government’, s financial resources, factors such as oil sanctions, oil prices, oil sales, and tax evasion are the most crucial factors affecting government revenue in Iran’, s economy. Thus, due to the significance of tax evasion as the most influential factor on government income, the present study has examined the effect of government total size and its components on tax evasion in Iran between 1979 and 2019 using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag model. According to the two examined models in the study, government’, s total and current sizes have a direct (unfavorable) effect on tax evasion, while the government’, s developmental size has an indirect (favorable) effect. Furthermore, based on both examined models, the Financial Depth Index and unemployment directly (unfavorably) affect tax evasion. Also, total, direct and indirect taxes have an unfavorable effect on tax evasion.

With decreasing per capita water, the scarcity of this vital resource has intensified and the world water misdistribution has worsened the water crisis. Therefore, the optimal management and allocation of water resources are become doubly important specially in the agriculture sector. In this framework, the present study has investigated the foreign trade of virtual water for the product groups of Iranian agriculture with the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) in 2018. For this purpose, using the partial equilibrium method, first the water requirement of plants are calculated and then, by processing the data of Iran’, s bilateral trade, the volume of virtual water embodied in Iran’, s trade flows and trade balance with the selected countries is measured and examined. The results of the present study show that Iran was net importers of virtual water in the trade of agricultural products with the CIS in 2018. On the other hand, the present study shows that 70. 5 percent of virtual water of the agricultural export to the selected countries in 2018 was through the blue water, while in the same year, 81. 3 percent of water embodied in the import from the region was related to the green water. This issue, in addition to indicating the improper use of water resources for the production and export of agricultural products in Iran, if continued, could lead to a reduction in national reserves of fresh water resources in Iran. According to the findings of the present study, it is suggested that special attention must be paid to the water needs and virtual water trade in the formulation of agricultural strategies and upstream policy documents. In addition to the promotion of water efficiency, it is also recommended that the necessary technical and economic considerations must be adopted in the optimal allocation of virtual water components.

The information and communication technology are one of the major factors that impacts the labor market. It has always affected the nature and type of employment in the labor market, changing the type of employment from permanent, stable and formal to contractual, temporary, unstable and informal. Therefore, it is important to study the impact of information and communication technology on the labor market. This study examines the impact of information and communication technology on labor market in the context of Iran’, s economy during the period 2009 to 2019, using the Stochastic Dynamic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model, focused on duality of labor market (formal and informal). The results of the study show that the development of information and communication technology impacts both formal and informal sectors through creating job opportunities, employment, production and consumption. A survey on response functions shows that an ICT impulse initially increases formal and informal employment, but the rate of formal employment decreases after a while, and the rate of informal employment increases. It will also shift the population outside the labor force in to the labor force population, contributing to the increase of labor supply.

Following the intensification of inequality in regions and its harmful effects such as irregular migration and evacuation of some regions, the government and parliament during 1990 onwards various structures in the five-year development plan and budget laws such as revenue-expenditure system, regional balance credits, two percent of the revenue from the sale of crude oil, etc. is intended to reduce the above inequality and create a balance between the regions of the country. Despite the passage of about twenty years of designing and compiling these structures, the results and the effectiveness of these measures have not been examined. Therefore, while identifying regional inequalities and their factors, it is necessary to examine the effects of the implementation of fiscal policies implemented over the past twenty years on regional inequality. This study seeks to examine the factors affecting regional inequality and identify the impact of specific government budget policies designed to reduce regional inequalities and implemented since the beginning of the Third Development Plan on regional inequality. For this purpose, statistics related to 31 provinces during the years 1990 in the form of spatial econometric model has been used. The results of the Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) indicate that the fiscal policies implemented over the past twenty years to reduce regional inequality have not had a significant impact on regional inequality. Therefore, it cannot be hoped that the continuation of this structure in the future can reduce inequality between regions. Changing this variable in a province not only has no significant effect on the inequality of that province but also has no significant effect on the inequality of other provinces. Therefore, this policy, have not had a significant effect in recent years and it is necessary to reconsider this policy.

Environmental taxes, as one of the axes of sustainable development of countries, are effective policies in the field of controlling environmental factors using economic tools. according to importance of subject, the main purpose of this research is to investigate the effects of adopting environmental tax on economic indicators including welfare and poverty among Iranian households with a calculable general equilibrium approach. Based on this, in this study, the amount of loss caused by the emission of each ton of pollutant was considered as the basis for environmental tax. The results of the study showed that after the adoption of the environmental tax policy, GDP (Gross Domestic Product), private sector consumption and the income of urban and rural households will experience a decrease. Therefore, in terms of welfare, Iranian households are in a worse situation than the basic conditions. On the other hand, while improving the tax revenue of the government, as expected, with the reduction in the level of production and consumption in the country, the amount of emissions of pollutants such as carbon dioxide, methane and nitrogen oxide will decrease.

Households move in cities for better housing and access to better public goods services, but the public goods are not equally important for households and their spatial distribution is not uniform in the city. In order to investigate in detail, we divvied the public goods into two groups: net and gross and modeling the housing residential choice. The main purpose of the study is to measure the impact of this product among all households and highincome groups. Data were collected from Census (2016) and the neighborhood quality survey (2015-2016) of Tehran Municipality. We use agent-based model for investigate the behavior of households. The results showed that the gross public goods are effective in choosing the house of all households in the city. Among the variables in this group, for all households in the city, “, access to the public transportation system”,has the greatest impact, but this variable does not affect the choice of high-income households. The variable “, access to educational space”,also has the least impact among all households, but in the high-income group, this variable has the most impact. In the group of net public goods, all variables are effective in choosing the house of all households in the city, and the variable “, security”,has the greatest impact. Compared to the high-income group, except for “, distance to educational space”, , other variables do not have a significant effect on housing choice, which indicates the unbalanced spatial distribution of net public goods in the city and the homogeneity of spatial distribution in high-income households. Also, based on the research background, educational space in the high-income group is considered as a measure of neighborhoods quality.

The undesirable impacts of climate change affect not only the environment, but all sectors of the society and the economy around the world. Technological advances are one of the factors that can reduce pollutants emissions relative to the amount of economic production. The index of economic complexity is one of the indicators that show the level of knowledge and skills required in the production of goods and is a measure of economic development. In this study, the nonlinear relationship between economic complexity index and carbon dioxide emissions has been investigated using a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model during 1971-2018. The results of the model indicate that by an increase in economic complexity, carbon dioxide emissions decrease about 2 percent, and by a decrease in economic complexity, carbon dioxide emissions increase about 12 and 1 percent in the long and short term, respectively. It is noteworthy that due to the low level of economic complexity in Iran, this index has a smaller coefficient than other variables. Also, the results show that the effect of positive and negative shocks of GDP on carbon dioxide emissions in the long term in Iran is symmetric, while the effect of positive and negative shocks of economic complexity on carbon dioxide emissions is asymmetric. It should be noted, the effect of the negative shocks of economic complexity on carbon dioxide emissions is greater than the positive shocks.

The present study examines between inflation and prosperity for the Iranian economy in the Q1 1367-Q1 1399 and its nonlinear relationship with increasing money with the Markov switching approach. For this purpose, using a standard method that was followed by Lucas (2000), Ireland (2009) and Mogliani and Urga (2018), two demand functions with full logarithm and semi-logarithmic specification are estimated. The results indicate a nonlinear relationship between the volume of money and the cost of inflation. Also, at the interest rate, 10% of inflation welfare costs for a complete logarithm model in the diet of 0. 75% GDP in the diet were two 0. 67% GDP and in the diet of 0, 78% GDP. And for the semi-logarithmic model in the diet, 0. 039% of GDP in the diet is two 0. 036% GDP and in the diet of 0. 031% GDP. In addition, an orientation in monetary policies and increasing the volume of money caused instability in the performance of money and the cost of inflation.