JOURNAL OF DEVELOPMENT AND CAPITAL
Year:2024 | Volume:9 | Issue:1|Papers Count:12

Objective: This study is trying to analyze the behavior of monetary policymakers with using Taylor's rule. Policy rules express how monetary policy tools respond to changes in state variables. In recent decades, has been one of the main and mental preoccupations of monetary economists  hat how monetary policymakers react to key economic variables and has led to more studies on the formulation and evaluation of monetary policy rules.Method: Since it is not expected to have a linear relationship between the variables of the model due to the existence of successive structural changes and changes in the political regime, therefore, the smooth transition threshold regression model (STR) has been used for respect to the variables of oil price changes, official exchange rate changes, inflation gap and production gap in the annual period from 2002 to 2019. It should be noted that the variables used in estimating the models are based on the degree of stationarity of the variables. According to the econometric literature, before any estimation, in order to prevent the occurrence of false regressions, it is necessary to ensure that the variables are stationary. For this purpose, the generalized Dickey-Fuller unit root test (ADF) has been used. The results obtained in table (1) show that in all the studied countries, the production gap variables, official exchange rate changes, inflation gap, oil price changes and nominal interest rate changes (for Iran; real interest rate changes) in The surface is static. In the next step, to estimate an STR model, it is necessary to determine the optimal interval for the model variables. After determining the optimal interval for the research variables, the type of model is determined in terms of linearity or non-linearity. For this purpose, the F test statistic was used. In the following, the appropriate transfer variable should be selected for the nonlinear model. To select the transition variable, any potential explanatory variable can be tested, but priority is given to the transition variable that rejects the null hypothesis of the f-test more strongly. Before estimation, model parameters using Newton-Raphsen algorithm are first checked for the existence or non-existence of collinearity between the variables of the model using the collinearity test of the variance inflation factor (Vif). In the following, the mentioned models are estimated and an attempt is made to analyze the models in which the variables have the greatest impact on the monetary policy maker and Taylor's principle is observed in them.Results: The results showed that, firstly, the reaction function of monetary policy makers in 16 selected countries is non-linear. Secondly; The findings from the estimation of the specified policy rule based on models (1), (2), (3) and (4) have shown that in all the investigated countries, by entering the variables of oil price changes and the official exchange rate into Taylor's model (model 1), the targeting of monetary policy makers is stable. Meanwhile, for the country of Iran, with the inclusion of the variables of oil price changes and official exchange rate in the Taylor model, inflation targeting is changed to production targeting. Thirdly; Based on the results obtained from the estimation of models, it can be seen that the variable of oil price changes in the countries of Algeria, Qatar, Kazakhstan, Ecuador, Colombia, Malaysia, Mexico, Belarus and Bulgaria affects the reaction function of monetary policy makers through the production gap channel and in Iran, Russia, Angola, Nigeria, Brazil, Tunisia and Azerbaijan through the official exchange rate gap channel.Conclusion: It is suggested that the central banks of the countries use key and influential variables such as: changes in oil prices, stock prices, housing prices, exchange rates, etc., because the selection of inappropriate policy goals damages the credibility of the central bank and invalidates the targeting framework.

Objective: The flow of technology spillovers to countries has been noticed in the last few decades because these spillovers lead to the increase of knowledge, transfer of technology and creation of competitive advantage. In recent decades, developing countries have established various laws and commercial policies with regard to various theories in the field of foreign trade. Our country is also one of the developing countries that needs to achieve optimal business policies for economic growth while preserving the environment. One of the ways to achieve this is to pay attention to the important issue of trade and sustainable development, which can be done by importing capital goods as well as importing technology and exporting industrial and consumer goods. In the meantime, it is very important to pay attention to trade policies on the one hand, as well as pay attention to the countries that are chosen as Iran's trading partners, because in the first case, the optimal tariff rate can determine the conditions for entry into global markets and also the entry of technology into make the country smooth and also in the discussion of trade and commercial policies, it is important that our business partner is selected in such a way that he can advance Iran's commercial policies in line with sustainable development policies. In the current research, we are looking for the effect of technology spillovers resulting from imports on economic and environmental variables with a multi-regional calculable general equilibrium approach. To investigate this issue, this article consists of 6 sections. After the introduction, in the second part, the theoretical foundations of technology spillovers, commercial policies, and its economic and environmental aspects have been investigated. The third part is dedicated to the research background and review of domestic and foreign studies. In the fourth part, the research method and data are examined. Section 5 analyzes the results of the implementation of the research model, and finally, conclusions and policy suggestions are presented.Method: The model used is a multi-regional Computable General Equilibrium model (CGE). One of the types of general equilibrium models is the multi-regional model of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP-E), which will be used for simulation in this study. Using multi-regional general equilibrium models instead of single-regional general equilibrium models has several advantages. One of the strengths of these models is their ability to help understand the link between sectors, countries and production factors on a global scale. The structure of these types of models states that all the components of the global economy are located in networks of direct and indirect links with each other. Therefore, any change that occurs in one of the components of the system will have consequences for all sectors, regions and countries. The consumption demand functions of the government are derived using a Cobb-Douglas utility function in which the cost share of different goods is fixed. Companies use intermediate goods and primary inputs to produce goods and services, and by combining these factors, they produce all kinds of goods and services. All factors except land and natural resources have full mobility among different sectors. Every department or company in the economy produces a set of goods. These goods are sold inside and outside each region. The assumption of perfect competition and constant returns to scale is established in the production of all goods and also in all markets. Real values, including the production of all sectors, the demand of factors, export, import and also all prices are determined in the framework of the model. It can be seen that all parts are similar to the GTAP model and the only difference between the GTAP-E model and its basic form is the energy factor and the inclusion of carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels by Burniaux and Truong (2002). which provides the possibility to evaluate environmental policies.Results: The scenario considered as the base scenario in this model is a 10% reduction in the import tariff on all imported goods. In this scenario, three areas are defined. The first region of Iran, the second region of northern countries, which means imports from developed countries, and the third region of southern countries, which includes imports from developing countries. The implementation of the scenario of 10% reduction in the tariff of imported goods from developed and developing countries to Iran has led to a decrease in the total growth rate of carbon emissions by 0.7276% in Iran. The results of this variable for developed and developing countries are 0.0002 percent and 0.0050 percent, respectively. As can be seen, a stronger effect on carbon emissions is observed in southern countries. Further, the results show that the reduction of the tariff has caused a decrease in carbon intensity by 0.6587 percent. that the effects of this scenario in developed countries decreased by 0.0010% and in developing countries increased by 0.0049%. In the section of economic variables, it can be seen that the effect of a 10% reduction in tariffs on imported goods leads to a 0.0692% reduction in the gross domestic product of Iran, while the same scenario has a positive effect on the gross domestic product of developed countries, and for developing countries, approximately It is close to zero. On the other hand, the reduction in the tariff of imported goods has reduced the amount of energy demand in Iran by 0.4558%, and the results of this variable for developed and developing countries were incremental.Conclusion: According to the results obtained, with the reduction of tariffs on imported goods, the total carbon emission rate has decreased. that the reason for this decrease can be investigated in two sectors of production and consumption, so that in the consumption sector, the increase in the import of goods due to the reduction in the tariff rate and the decrease in the price of foreign goods compared to domestic goods causes the loss of a part of the domestic market for domestic producers and ultimately the reduction of energy production and demand inside Iran. But in the production sector, considering the higher level of production technology in developed countries and some developing countries, including China, compared to Iran, the reduction of tariffs on imported goods leads to the import of more intermediate goods with higher technology and lower energy consumption. Iran, and following that, production in the country will be associated with lower energy consumption and less carbon emissions. The economic indicators that have been investigated in this research are gross domestic product, inflation rate and energy demand. The coefficient of GDP shows that the reduction of tariffs on imported goods reduces the amount of GDP by 0.0692%, which can be due to the decrease in domestic production caused by the non-competitiveness of domestic goods compared to imported goods that the consumer Domestic prefers foreign goods with higher technology. Also, it can be seen that the impact of the reduction of import tariffs on the GDP of developed countries is more than that of developing countries, and the reduction of import tariffs has led to a decrease in energy demand in Iran, which is caused by the decrease in domestic production and the import of intermediate goods. It is with newer technology to Iran.

Objective: The COVID-19 pandemic severely contracted Iran's economy in 2019-2021. Mass vaccinations in Iran, which began in February 2021, gradually made expectations for the future optimistic and increased investment incentives. Considering the importance of this issue, the main goal of the present study is to understand the effect of shock to the marginal efficiency of investment on Iran's economy. Also, considering that since the great recession of 2007, the macroeconomic effects of government expenditures shocks have received more attention, one of the other goals of this study is to investigate the effects of government expenditures shocks and the crowding out effect in Iran's economy. In other words, since the scientific analysis of the effect of economic shocks on economic conditions is essential, the main goal of this article is to understand the effects of shocks on the marginal efficiency of investment and government expenditures on the dynamics of macroeconomic variables in Iran.Method: Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) modeling is a branch of macroeconomics that follows the principles of microeconomics and can optimally evaluate the performance of the economy in a stochastic environment. These models are a new version of general equilibrium that emerged following Lucas' criticism. Compared to the models based on time series, DSGE models can show detailed interactions between market decision makers in the framework of general equilibrium. On the other hand, most time series models are not based on economic theory and unlike DSGE models, they are not based on mathematical optimization. Also, unlike calculable general equilibrium models, DSGE models are in a stochastic environment, and since the duration of the shock and its effect on the economy is not known, it is more appropriate to use DSGE models. Considering that the shocks on the economy are stochastic, dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models can best evaluate the effects of these shocks. In this article, a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model is presented and estimated using the Bayesian approach and seasonal data in the period of 2001:3-2021:3. The primary core of the current research is designed based on the study of Rohe (2012) and by expanding this model, the effect of shock to the marginal efficiency of investment on the dynamics of the macroeconomic variables of Iran has been investigated. In this regard, the studied DSGE model includes households with an unlimited planning horizon, a representative firm producing a homogeneous final product in a perfectly competitive environment, the government, and the oil sector. In order to estimate model indices, Bayesian method and Random Walk Metropolis-Hastings algorithm were used. The data of the observable variables of the model include seasonally adjusted data of Gross Domestic Production (GDP), private consumption, investment and government expenditure; which have been detrended using the Hodrick-Prescott filter.Results: The results indicate that the productivity shock caused an increase in the marginal efficiency of investment and production, and subsequently the hours of employment and investment increased; This caused the interest rate to increase. Due to the increase in household income, consumption increased. The response of the variables to productivity shocks and marginal efficiency of investment are very similar. The only difference is the response of consumption to the shock of the marginal efficiency of investment. As a result of this shock, consumption decreased due to the decrease in wage rates and household income. Also, the dependence of marginal efficiency of investment shocks and government expenditures led to an increase in government expenditures as a result of the marginal efficiency of investment shock. The shock of increasing government expenditures caused an increase in the real interest rate and a decrease in investment. Also, production and employment increased in response to this shock. Due to the significant decrease in the wage rate, consumption has decreased. Since the increase in government expenditures has led to a decrease in investment, the crowding out effect in Iran's economy is confirmed.Conclusion: Comparing the effects of shock to the marginal efficiency of investment and government spending shock on the dynamics of macroeconomic variables in Iran indicates that both shocks lead to an increase in output; but the government expenditures shock has led to the shrinking of the private sector in Iran. As a policy recommendation, it is suggested that the government should manage the political and economic environment of the country in a way so that the expectations of economic agents are formed as optimistically as possible. Also, considering the confirmation of the crowding out effect in Iran's economy, the government should prioritize the goal of reducing its size and expenses.

Objective: In sustainable development and the development of business management in the new business condition, a new model of reporting is needed for reflecting all the internal and external organization effects, past and future of the companies' operations. Sustainability reporting provides an opportunity for more and better participation in the direction of sustainable development and provides the possibility of accountability in dimensions that have always been demanded by society and people. The current research was conducted with the aim of investigating the effect of isomorphism dimensions on the pressure of stakeholders and then its effect on improving the level of environmental reporting to have an effectiveness sustainable development. In the direction of the development of sustainability, the principles of isomorphism theory as the initiator of many new approaches can affect the effectiveness of the implementation and implementation of environmental reporting based on sustainable development. Managerial reporting reforms can be explained from the perspective of new organizational theory. The theory of isomorphism with the concept of institutional homogeneity is useful in understanding financial reporting reforms because these reforms are carried out not only because of the optimal use of public resources but also because of political power and institutional legitimacy.Method: This research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive and correlational in terms of data collection method. To obtain data related to "environmental management reporting" and "dimensions of isomorphism", the questionnaire of Asiri et al. was used. The scoring of all questionnaires is based on the Likert scale. To test the hypotheses of the research, a sample of financial managers and senior management of companies listed in the Tehran Stock Exchange in 2022 has been selected. Due to the nature of the research, the large size of the population and the impossibility of surveying the entire statistical population, convenience sampling method was used. The sample size was also determined using Morgan's table of 300 people and for this purpose, the same number of questionnaires were collected. To test the hypotheses and research model, the data obtained from distributed questionnaires were analyzed using descriptive statistical methods (such as sample, mean and standard deviation). In the inferential part to test the research hypotheses, the data was analyzed using the conceptual model through structural equation modeling and using PLS software. In this research, environmental management accounting is considered as a dependent hidden variable. The mentioned index is equal to the amount of points that people give in response to the relevant questionnaire. Also, independent hidden variables include environment-focused human resource management and environment-focused technology.Results: In this research, the effect of different dimensions of institutional isomorphism, including normative, mimetic and coercive dimensions, on institutional isomorphism, and in the next step, the effect of institutional isomorphism on the level of environmental reporting based on the principles of sustainable development has been investigated. Research hypotheses have been formulated in line with the theory of legitimacy, the theory of stakeholders and the theory of information economy, and it has been shown that in the companies listed to the Tehran Stock Exchange, coercive and normative isomorphism has led to the promotion of institutional isomorphism, and mimetic isomorphism has an effect on institutional isomorphism. Also, institutional isomorphism has led to the improvement of environmental management reporting in the path of achieving sustainable development goals. Institutional isomorphism has shown various types of pressure from interest groups and through different means, which will lead to changes in the structure of an organization and will create a kind of homogeneity among organizations. Institutional isomorphism with its mechanisms encourages or forces companies to implement environmental requirements in the path of sustainable development. The implementation and application of such requirements requires a suitable information system and its reports can lead to appropriate decisions in different organizational dimensions.Conclusion: Coercive homomorphism appears as a result of official and unofficial pressures through the acceptance of national and international guidelines and laws. For example, these institutions may prescribe conditions for the development of cooperation. While normative isomorphism manifests itself as a result of professionalism and organizations reaching the belief that systems such as environmental reporting has major benefits for the organization and society. There have been no such discussions in imitation. These results are in accordance with the stakeholder pressure theory and the new institutional holistic theory, which deals with providing an institutional theory based on the lack of resources and technological capabilities based on institutional isomorphism. Strengthening the use of information systems focused on the environment, which is done by training and strengthening employees' awareness of its methods, promotes the main indicators of sustainable development. This issue can be due to legal pressures from the government, following environmental laws, meeting the needs of environmental policies for the purposes of corporate governance. In this regard, isomorphism as a limiting process makes organizations comply with the sustainable development performance framework. Companies will also be structurally forced to submit reports and environmental measures and take optimal decisions in this regard. Therefore, by creating a duality, on the one hand, isomorphism will limit companies in the path of financial and economic development, and on the other hand, it will improve sustainable development indicators. One of the functions of the developer is the establishment of green technologies based on sustainable development in order to improve environmental performance, and in the same way, the development of human resource management based on the environment. Based on the findings of this research, it is suggested that governments, by establishing laws and regulations or through unions, require companies to establish environment-based systems and environmental reporting. Also, the improvement of environment-based human resources management, such as performance evaluation systems and payment of bonuses and promotion of employees, and improvement of the organizational culture of environmental management accounting in companies should be given more attention. The business environment should be developed in such a way that the survival of businesses depends on meeting the goals of sustainable development and the environment.

Objective: Liquidity is considered one of the important assets of economic units and enterprises, which plays a significant role in financial decisions. Organizations usually face imbalances in assets and liabilities that must be balanced. If an organization is not successful in balancing such a gap, there will be a liquidity risk and several adverse consequences such as the risk of inability to pay debts, the risk of reputation and credit, etc. will occur. Liquidity management includes preventing the inability to pay debts (bankruptcy), reducing the period of accounts receivable, increasing the amount of collections, and such cases. Investors, lenders and managers pay special attention to the financial statements of companies so that they can evaluate liquidity risk by using liquidity ratios, which is liquidity management.On the other hand, working capital management is a liquidity management tool and one of the strategies for achieving desirable liquidity for companies, so that desirable liquidity for companies is maintained to the extent that they are not exposed to surplus or shortage of liquidity. In addition, economic sanctions increase inflation and disrupt money transfers and liquidity management. Accordingly, the purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of economic sanctions on liquidity management (based on operating capital factor), in listed companies in Tehran Stock Exchange.Method: To test the research hypotheses, the financial information of the 126 companies (1260 years-companies) accepted in Tehran Stock Exchange was used between 2011 and 2020, given the tightening of sanctions in 2011. The necessary data were extracted by referring to the financial statements and accompanying explanatory notes in the companies admitted to the Tehran Stock Exchange, available in the Codal, the website of the Tehran Stock Exchange Organization, and Rahvard Novin software. The final analysis of the collected data was done using Eviews and Stata econometric software. After measuring the variables of the research, multivariate linear regression analysis was used to test the research hypothesis.Results: The experience of recent years shows that Iran has always struggled with the issue of economic sanctions. In terms of time, sanctions on Iran after the Islamic Revolution can be divided as follows: the initial period of the Islamic Revolution and hostage-taking (1979-1981); the period of Iraq's imposed war against Iran (1981-1988); Reconstruction period (1989-1992); Clinton era, bilateral restraint (1993-2001); After September 11, 2001 and after the resolutions of the Security Council. In the period from 2011 to 2014, the international sanctions against Iran caused a decrease of more than 17% in the real GDP of the country. In the period between 2012 and 2015, the most severe banking sanctions, including those of the United States, the United Nations, and the European Union, were imposed on Iranian banks and their SWIFT system was shut down. For this reason, studies investigating Iran's sanctions usually choose this period as the period of economic sanctions; Because it was unique in terms of intensity and depth and significantly overshadowed the economic and business indicators of the companies. The severity of the effects and consequences of the recent sanctions make it relevant to examine its impact on variables such as the company's liquidity.The results of the statistical tests indicate that economic sanctions have a negative impact on the liquidity management of the company by imposing restrictions on the purchase, sale, GDP, technology and contraction of economic activities (inactivity in the economy). In an alternative practice, the research model was also fitted with clustered standard error (cluster panel). The results of the model estimation with the panel cluster method (sensitivity test) support the main results of the research and state that sanctions have a negative effect on the company's liquidity management.Conclusion: Economic sanctions cause disruption in growth, financial flexibility, efficiency of economic activities, employment, profitability and consequently liquidity management by creating an unhealthy environment in the business environment and restrictions on doing business. Hence, companies perform worse in times of economic sanctions. Based on the results of the research and considering the negative effect of economic sanctions on liquidity management in companies, it is suggested that the statesmen and other authorities of the country pay more attention to the general policies of the economy in order to strengthen the economy of Iran. Regarding the impact of sanctions on liquidity management, there are two solutions to deal with it: a) Coordination of political and economic officials in the path of not sanctioning the country, which is of course bound to preserve the values of the society. b) The existence of alternative markets with which it is possible to exchange in the conditions of sanctions and the strengthening of any type of regional union and alternative market. The limitation of the current research is that the variable that is considered to measure sanctions is a virtual variable that depends on time and is defined in a period of time, and in this period, it cannot be confidently claimed that it is the only event that affects the macro economy of Iran. is sanctioned; Rather, other events, such as the deterioration of the balance sheets of banks and energy price reforms (implemented in 2010), etc., which have occurred in this period of time, can also affect the generalization of the results.

Objective: One of the factors affecting production and employment in one economy is investment. In economic literature, capital formation is the driving force of economic activities and economic growth patterns are based on the use of capital and labor. Despite the importance of investment in production and subsequent employment in the economy, unfortunately, in recent years, capital formation and the level of investment in the country have been very low due to several reasons such as economic instability. Therefore, it has created major problems in the field of production and employment in the country and its different regions, and it is necessary to make a codified and coherent planning to increase production and employment in the country. On the other hand, the first step for planning and making policies for the growth of production and employment is to identify the factors affecting them and to examine the effectiveness of each of these factors. The point that exists in relation to investment at the sector level (different economic sectors) is that the potential of creating production and employment (direct and indirect) of different economic sectors is different from each other. For this reason, investment in different economic sectors can have different effects on production and employment at the level of the sector as well as the whole economy. Among the reasons for the difference in the production potential and direct employment generation of the sectors, we can mention the difference in technology used in different sectors. In this way, some economic sectors have a high direct employment generation coefficient and some others have lower direct employment generation. Among the reasons for the difference in production potential and indirect employment generation of the sectors, we can also mention the difference in the communication and links between the sectors of each of the sectors with each other. Sectors that have more links with other sectors have a high potential in production and creating employment due to a certain amount of investment. Therefore, it can be said that in addition to the total amount of investment in the economy, the relative share of the sectors in the total investment, or in other words, the structure and composition of the investment is also effective in the production and employment of the entire economy. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of investment expenditure change on changes in output and employment in different economic sectors in Iran.Method: In this study, structural decomposition Analysis (SDA) in the input-output model between 2011 and 2016 have been used. To do this, first, the investment demand matrix in the economy was divided into two matrices, one is the investment composition (structure) matrix and the other is the total investment matrix. The investment composition matrix represents the share of each sector in the total investment in the economy and the second matrix represents the total investment in different sectors of the economy. For the calculations of this study, the input-output tables of the years 2011 and 2016 are needed. The statistical table of 2011 and 2016 was obtained from Iran Statistics Center. In the next step, both input-output tables were aggregated based on the availability of employment statistics in 18 sectors. After that, to remove price effects in research calculations, input-output tables should be converted to constant price. In this study, to eliminate the effect of price changes between 2011 and 2016, the table of 2016 was converted to the constant price of 2011 with the double deflation method. For this purpose, the price adjustment index of eighteen sectors has been used. Finally, this adjustment index was used to convert the 2016 table to the 2011 price.Results: The results of this study showed that the increase in the level of investment (with a constant composition) has increased the total production of sectors of the economy by 2361599.59 billion rials, but the change in the structure of investment (with a constant volume) has reduced the total production 5224865 billion Rials. Changing the composition of investment has decreased 509620 people and changing the volume of investment has increased 3021509 people in the total employment of the economy.Conclusion: Considering the negative impact of the change in investment composition on production and employment in Iran's economy, it is suggested to prioritize investment in sectors that have higher production and employment coefficients in the economy.

Objective: Under uncertain conditions in the economy, the process of planning and decision-making as well as policy-making in all economic sectors, including households, enterprises, the government and the financial market, is disrupted, because the possibility of prediction decreases and it becomes difficult for economic actors to realize future visions. In such a situation, economic agents are faced with uncertainty regarding consumption, savings or investment decisions, expenditure-tax policies, laws and regulations, and future interest rates. In other words, decision-making has become difficult for economic agents and makes them hesitate to make decisions in the hope of achieving a more stable position in the future. The purpose of this research is to investigate the spillover effects of uncertainty in Iran's economy. For this purpose, the fluctuations of each of the markets (oil, currency, stocks) in the occurrence of uncertainty in the Iranian economy are investigated and the spillover effects of uncertainty resulting from each sector to other sectors are estimated.Method: In some applications of the ARCH model, conditional variance equations with relatively long intervals are used, which requires determining the structure of the intervals to avoid the problem of negative parameters in the variance, so that a process with a longer memory and a more flexible interval structure can be selected from the ARCH category. To achieve more flexibility, another generalization is proposed as the generalized ARCH (GARCH) process. This has made forecasting in financial markets more complicated. Therefore, nowadays, multivariable models have been developed a lot in order to model the dynamics of returns. Using multivariate time series models has two important advantages. Firstly, it is very effective in identifying the relationship between series, secondly, it will increase the accuracy of forecasting. For example, if the past values ​​of one series influence another series, it is better to use multivariate models. Of course, using systemic or multivariable models instead of single-variable models will bring two important limitations. First, the more parameters that are estimated, the accuracy of the results will decrease and we need more data for the results to be reliable. Second, in many cases, the results do not have a high explanatory power. In multivariate GARCH models, the number of parameters increases drastically with the increase in the dimension of the model, and on the other hand, it is necessary for the variance matrix to be positive definite. Establishing these characteristics by the estimated parameters is not so simple. To estimate the parameters of multivariate GARCH models, the maximum likelihood method is mainly used, although the two-step method is also common. One of the problems with GARCH family models is that positive and negative fluctuations with equal size have the same effect on the conditional covariance matrix, this feature is the symmetry effect. But in practice, the reaction of the economy to good and bad events may be different, so to solve this problem, non-linear GARCH combination models with BEKK extension have been used. Results: Based on the findings of the research, the only variable of GDP excluding oil income has a structural failure during its process in the second quarter of 2011, and other variables are also without structural failure. Based on the criteria for measuring the accuracy of modeling estimations, the VARMAX GARCH-in-Mean Asymmetric BEKK model has provided more accurate results in terms of structural failure. Given that the number of conditional mean and conditional variance-covariance equations depends on the number of endogenous variables; In the current research (due to the presence of three endogenous variables), three equations for the average part and three equations for the variance-covariance part have been designed. In the analysis of the GARCH effects of exogenous variables and estimated coefficients of the Bx matrix, it can be seen that the transfer of the uncertainty of sanctions to the market of the production sector is significant. In addition, the transfer of turbulence from the growth of oil income, sanctions index and money market index to other studied sectors has also been confirmed. Based on the obtained results, the spillover of impulses and turbulence between the stock market, currency and gross domestic product (except from the production sector towards the currency market) is two-way.Conclusion: During the studied period, the most transfer of turbulence from the previous period of the currency market to the current period has occurred in the currency market. Also, in the analysis of GARCH effects of exogenous variables and estimated coefficients, it can be seen that the transfer of oil price uncertainty to real GDP and foreign exchange market is significant. In addition, the transfer of the turbulence resulting from sanctions to the currency market has also been confirmed. The estimated coefficients of the matrix indicate the confirmation of the existence of asymmetric effects of BEKK in the studied variables. Also, a careful examination of the estimated coefficients shows that the reflection of bad news of oil on the turbulence of the production sector and the bad news of sanctions on the turbulence of the stock market has appeared more than other studied sectors.

Objective: Entrepreneurship is a crucial engine for economic growth, job creation, and innovation. However, limited access to financial resources remains a significant barrier for aspiring entrepreneurs. This study builds on the established link between financial development and entrepreneurship by exploring the crucial role of institutional quality in this relationship. We posit that a robust and well-functioning financial system alone may not be sufficient to foster entrepreneurship in the absence of strong institutions. Extensive research has documented the positive impact of financial development on entrepreneurship. Increased access to financial resources through developed financial institutions and markets empowers individuals to pursue entrepreneurial ventures (Dutta & Meierrieks, 2021; Ajide & Ojeyinka, 2022). However, the effectiveness of financial development can be contingent on the prevailing institutional environment (Beck et al., 2002). Strong institutions, characterized by good governance, rule of law, and property rights enforcement, create a conducive environment for entrepreneurial activity by reducing uncertainty and mitigating risks. Method: This study employs a two-pronged approach to analyze the relationship between financial development, institutional quality, and entrepreneurship in MENA countries. First, a system GMM model is estimated to examine the direct effects of financial development (FD) and institutional quality (GQ) on entrepreneurship (EN), measured by the Early-stage Entrepreneurial Activity (TEA) rate. (1)                         Where i and t represent country and year, respectively. Xit is a vector of control variables including GDP per capita, GDP growth rate, government size, trade openness, business startup costs, foreign direct investment, and tax burden.Second, a panel threshold model is employed to investigate the conditional effect of institutional quality on the relationship between financial development and entrepreneurship. This model allows us to identify whether the impact of financial development on entrepreneurship differs depending on the level of institutional quality (good vs. poor). (2)Here, δ is an indicator function that takes a value of 1 when institutional quality is good and 0 otherwise.The institutional quality data is constructed from six sub-indicators extracted from the World Governance Indicators (WGI) dataset: control of corruption, rule of law, quality of regulations, government effectiveness, voice and accountability, and political stability. Findings: The empirical results confirm the hypothesized relationships. Financial development, measured by various indicators, has a positive and statistically significant impact on entrepreneurship in MENA countries. This finding aligns with existing literature (Dutta & Meierrieks, 2021; Ajide & Ojeyinka, 2022). Importantly, the study reveals a critical role for institutional quality. The positive effect of financial development on entrepreneurship is amplified in countries with strong institutions, particularly those characterized by good governance. Conversely, the impact of financial development is weaker, and statistically insignificant, in countries with weak institutional environments. These findings highlight the conditional nature of the relationship between financial development and entrepreneurship.Discussion and Policy ImplicationsThis study offers valuable insights for policymakers in developing economies, particularly those in the MENA region. The results underscore the importance of a two-pronged approach for fostering a thriving entrepreneurial ecosystem. First, promoting financial development through initiatives that enhance access to finance, deepen financial markets, and improve the efficiency of the financial sector is crucial. This could involve supporting the development of a diverse range of financial institutions, including venture capital firms, microfinance institutions, and angel investor networks.Second, the study emphasizes the critical role of institutional reforms in maximizing the positive impact of financial development on entrepreneurship. Policymakers should prioritize measures to strengthen governance, combat corruption, uphold the rule of law, and streamline regulations. Additionally, fostering political stability and promoting democratic practices can create a more predictable and secure environment for entrepreneurs.Limitations and Future ResearchThis study offers valuable insights, but it also has limitations that pave the way for future research.Limited Sample: The analysis focuses on 11 MENA countries. Expanding the sample to include a broader range of developing economies could provide a more generalizable understanding of the interplay between financial development, institutional quality, and entrepreneurship.Data Availability: The study relies on existing datasets to measure financial development and institutional quality. Future research could explore alternative or more nuanced measures to capture the complexities of these concepts.Endogeneity: A potential issue of endogeneity exists between financial development and entrepreneurship. Future research could employ advanced econometric techniques to address this potential bias.Future research directions could explore the following:The Role of Specific Financial Instruments: Investigate how different types of financial instruments, such as venture capital, microloans, or angel investments, influence entrepreneurial activity under varying institutional contexts.The Impact of Technological Advancements: Examine how the emergence of Fintech (financial technology) solutions can potentially improve access to finance and foster entrepreneurship in MENA countries, particularly in light of institutional constraints.The Entrepreneurship Ecosystem: Explore the broader entrepreneurial ecosystem beyond financial development and institutional quality. This could include investigating the role of social capital, cultural attitudes towards entrepreneurship, and educational systems in fostering entrepreneurial activity. Conclusion: In conclusion, this study sheds light on the crucial interplay between financial development, institutional quality, and entrepreneurship in the MENA region. The findings underscore the necessity of a comprehensive approach that simultaneously promotes financial development and strengthens institutional frameworks. By implementing these recommendations, policymakers can create an environment that fosters a vibrant entrepreneurial ecosystem, leading to sustainable economic development and prosperity.

Objective: The concept of this study is related to different stakeholders which include policy makers, financial market participants, asset managers and company managers. First, policymakers and government agencies should be aware that uncertainty related to economic policies (monetary policies, fiscal spending, regulations, changes in taxes, national debt, etc.) can have decisive effects on investor sentiment and asset prices. Government agencies should provide uninterrupted communication with elected officials to help clarify the government's policy stance on economic matters. This limits uncertainty about the future direction of certain government policies, which should lead to less volatile and better priced financial assets. Second, financial market participants and asset managers should be aware of changes and direction of change in policy uncertainty and position their portfolios in response to changes in policy uncertainty, which can have short-term and long-term effects on the stock market. Asset managers and investors with long-term mandates and time horizons should be equally concerned about policy uncertainty and its asymmetric effects. Finally, corporate managers may use policy uncertainty to help them time their capital raising activities. Therefore, by taking advantage of policy uncertainty, firm managers may time their firm's capital raising activities to minimize their firm's cost of capital and maximize firm value. Therefore, considering the importance of the capital market in the country's economy on the one hand and the occurrence of numerous shocks in the field of monetary policy, the main purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of monetary policy uncertainty on stock market uncertainty in Iran.Method: In this study, according to the type and purpose of the research, it is applied and in terms of controlling the variables, it is a non-experimental and descriptive-correlation research. Conducting research in the form of inductive analogy and its information is event type. In this study, information on Iran's economy during the years 1368-1400 has been examined. The source of the data used is the database of the World Bank and the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, and ARDL and NARDL methods have been used to estimate the desired models. It should be mentioned that Eviews11 software was used to estimate the model. The research model with Elha is specified from the two studies of Battabial and Killins (2021) and Fu and Lu (2021).Findings: The results of the ARDL linear model show that in the long term, the uncertainty of monetary policies causes the intensification of uncertainty in the stock market. On the other hand, in the non-linear ARDL model, the results showed that monetary policy uncertainty shocks do not have an asymmetric effect on stock market uncertainty in the first place, and secondly, negative shocks have a positive effect on stock market uncertainty in the long term. Other results showed that government size and economic growth do not play a role in stock market uncertainty. While, the exchange rate, inflation rate and interest rate have an effect on the uncertainty of the stock market.Conclusion: This research was conducted with the aim of investigating the effect of monetary policy uncertainty on stock market uncertainty in Iran using the NARDL approach. In this study, in addition to using the NARDL approach, the ARDL approach has also been used, and in some ways, the linear and non-linear approach has been compared. In the nonlinear model, the positive and negative shocks of monetary policy uncertainty were calculated using the NARDL approach and included in the model. The results of linear and non-linear models showed that the uncertainty of monetary policies affects the uncertainty of the stock market in the long term. In other words, the uncertainty in the application and implementation of monetary policies increases uncertainty in the stock market. The results in the non-linear approach showed that; First, the effect of negative and positive uncertainty shocks is not asymmetric. Second, only the negative shock of monetary policy uncertainty has an effect on stock market uncertainty. In other words, with the occurrence of a negative shock in the uncertainty of monetary policies, the uncertainty in the stock market increases. The results of other variables showed that economic growth and government size, despite their importance in the formation of trust in the capital market, have an insignificant effect on stock market uncertainty. On the other hand, the occurrence of inflationary conditions in the country, both due to the inflation rate and the increase in the exchange rate, causes an increase in uncertainty in the stock market. However, an increase in interest rates will reduce uncertainty in the stock market.

Objective: The operational environment of commercial banks has become dynamic and competitive. The failure of banks in this competitive environment and their poor financial performance have forced the banking system to provide strategies to improve their performance in this environment. Merger and acquisition strategies are increasing as one of these solutions with the aim of reducing the inefficient sector. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of mergers and acquisitions on the profitability and Profitability efficiency of active banks in the banking system of Iran in the period of 2005-2021.Method: The purpose of this study is to investigate and analyze the situation in which potential merger and acquisition has occurred in banking sector base on our presumption. Seven scenarios have been assigned in order to merge the banks in Iran. two first scenarios are among state banks, third and fourth scenarios are in private sector banks and the rest are among both state and private sector banks. It is worth mentioning that the seventh scenario is the one which has occurred in real in which banks which are related to military system have been merged in to the Sepah bank. Profitability efficiency before and after the merger was evaluated through Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) methods as well as adjusted profit to Risk Weighted Assets (RWA). Additionally by the aim of analyzing the situation and figures pre and post-merger and acquisition we applied Monte Carlo Markov Switching (MCMC) method and  at the end the stress test for the designed scenarios, the conditions before and after the integration were evaluated to assess the results of shocks on banking sector. in the stress test section, the dynamic response of model variables caused by structural shocks of one standard deviation for the next 10 years are analyzed cumulatively with the help of variance decomposition approach. Because the investigated banks have different situations before and after the merger, they show different reactions in dealing with banking and non-banking shocks.Findings: The results of the SFA approach show that in the first scenario (Tosee Saderat and Sanat o Madan) and the sixth scenario (Tose-e-Taavon, Gardeshgari, Day and Khavare Miyaneh), the profitability of all sample banks has increased. Also, in the second scenario, one bank (Tosee Taavon), in the third scenario, Iran-Zemin Bank, in the fourth scenario, Gardeshgari, in the fifth scenario, Sanat and Madan Bank, and in the seventh scenario, Sepah, Hikmat Iranian, Mehr Eghtesad, Kosar, Ansar and Khavare Miyaneh banks with Increased profitability after the merger. Also, based on the results of the Monte Carlo Markov Switching (MCMC) approach, the average and standard deviation of the profitability index has improved by 36.13 percent in post-merger conditions. Also, the results of the stress test show that A shock or a sudden change as much as one standard deviation in the GDP increases profitability both in the pre- and post-merger conditions, but the difference between the two situations mentioned in this index is such that the profitability index after From integration, they increase at a higher rate in response to an increase in GDP. In other words, this increase has more growth in post-merger conditions. Therefore, it can be concluded that in post-merger conditions, banks' profitability reacts more to macroeconomic shocks, so that if a favorable index increases, the profitability index also increases at a higher rate, and if a favorable index decreases, this index decreases at a higher rate. Therefore, it cannot be said that the economic shocks on the banking system in post-merger conditions will affect the banking system less, and this solution has more stability for the banking system due to the influence of macroeconomic indicators. Also, A shock or a sudden change as much as one standard deviation occurs in the facility will increase the profitability both in the conditions before and in the conditions after the merger, but the difference between the two situations mentioned about these indicators is such that the profitability index after Mergers are increasing at a more modest rate in response to the increase in facilitiesConclusion: findings shows that with analyzing the situation through balance sheets and income state of banks and merge them with regards to their characteristics there may be benefits in shape of enhance in efficiency and profitability of post-merger banks. Additionally with regard to financial distress and crisis mergers may not be the best practice. Solutions such as merger and acquisition, despite the fact that they prevent these risks from entering the system to a small extent, but still cannot prevent the risk in a relatively acceptable way.

Objective: Today, the issue of protecting the environment and preventing its destruction is considered as one of the most important issues of global society. In neoclassical economics, capital and labor were considered as the engine of economic growth, but in recent decades, energy has become one of the main elements of economic growth. In a way, the economic growth of any country depends on the growth of its energy input (Zheng and Walsh, 2019). Along with energy use, greenhouse gas emission is also a term that is often used and the two are interconnected (Achampeng, 2018; Bacon et al., 2019; Gross and Aydin, 2019 and Reza et al., 2019). According to a report from the International Energy Agency, about 67% of the total carbon dioxide emissions are caused by the energy sector, and it shows that reducing air pollution can be achieved by controlling energy consumption. In an effort to respond to the dangers of climate change, studies suggest ways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, including; a) use of renewable energies; and b) the efficiency of using energy resources (Chang et al., 2018). Studies such as Alvarez-Hranz et al. (2017); Yuan et al. (2018); Lin and Zhou (2019) and Chen et al. (2019) proposed the use of renewable energy technology to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from energy consumption. However, the best and most cost-effective way to reduce air pollution and climate change caused by energy consumption is the optimal use of energy (Lopez-Pena et al., 2012). Triani et al. (2016) claim that strengthening energy efficiency in the industrial sector is the best tool in terms of cost efficiency to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from energy sources. Therefore, energy efficiency is considered as one of the main strategies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions.Considering the importance of environmental quality and the role of energy efficiency in its realization, in this article we try to examine the impact of good governance indicators on energy efficiency and its spatial effects. Therefore, in the field of energy efficiency, one of the goals of this research is to empirically examine the issue of whether the institutional arrangements of neighboring countries affect the institutional quality of the country itself and, as a result, whether energy efficiency is affected in this way. Therefore, we seek to answer these questions, is there a spatial spillover effect of institutional quality? If such spatial spillover exists, how much can it explain a country's level of energy efficiency? Also, the lack of agreement between the experimental studies in the obtained results and the reporting of different results in them is another factor of investigating the issue in the present research.Method: Spatial studies use spatial econometrics instead of common econometrics. Researchers in business, commercial and demographic studies that deal with spatial data and observations and can replace common econometrics with spatial econometrics. The most important differences between spatial econometrics and conventional econometrics are issues such as spatial autocorrelation and spatial heterogeneity, while the aforementioned issues are not discussed in conventional econometrics and it is ignored that not considering this issue causes a violation of the Gauss-Markov assumptions in this research with a random border approach and patterns Spatial econometrics examines the spatial impact of institutional quality on energy efficiency for a country group consisting of 89 countries and for the period 2002-2020.Findings: First, in order to avoid false regression, unit root tests are performed and their results are reported accordingly. The reported results indicate that the variables of logarithm of energy efficiency, logarithm of gross domestic product, logarithm of added value of industry sector, logarithm of added value of service sector, logarithm of urbanization population and logarithm of governance quality index are all at the same level. To estimate and analyze the model, the population spatial weight matrix and the gravity model were used, which were standardized using the row standardization method of the elements of this matrix. The considered model in relation (9) was estimated by SAR, SEM, SAC and SDM methods, and the best estimation method is decided by using the relevant tests.Conclusion: Studies have been conducted on the effect of institutional quality and governance on energy efficiency; But the understanding of the relationship and influence of government institutions on energy efficiency is still limited due to few studies, especially in the era of globalization, where countries interact more with each other and their policies and executive actions are affected by each other. Therefore, in this study, with the aim of investigating and analyzing the effects of institutional quality and governance and their spillover effects on energy efficiency, data from 89 countries were used in the period of 2002-2018. In this study, energy efficiency is estimated using the stochastic frontier analysis model and the spillover effects of institutional quality and governance are investigated with spatial panel patterns. In general, the experimental results show that energy efficiency has spatial correlation in the studied countries, and more importantly, the experimental results support the existence of spillover effects of governance quality on energy efficiency. In the current study, the direct effect of governance quality on energy efficiency was positive, although this effect was not statistically significant, but the spillover effects of this variable on energy efficiency had a positive and significant effect. Therefore, the level of energy efficiency of a country can not only be affected by the economic structure of each country, but in addition to the quality of institutions and executive policies of the country itself, it can also depend on the quality of institutions and governance of neighboring countries. This result shows that the country being surrounded by countries with good governance and institutional framework can affect the performance of efficiency and quality.

Objective: The purpose of the current research was to identify the elements of the model for the implementation of the general policies of the country's higher education in order to realize the third generation university.Method: The current research is among applied researches with an exploratory nature, which was conducted with a mixed approach. The members of the statistical sample of the qualitative part of the research are academic experts and experts in the field of policy implementation and entrepreneurship with a doctorate degree, at least 10 years of work experience in student, cultural and educational vice-chancellors, and at least two years of management experience in the Ministry of Science/University, in the number of 12 people. The data were selected based on the snowball technique. The data of the qualitative section were collected by interview and analyzed based on the content analysis technique. The tool used in the quantitative part of the research was a researcher-made questionnaire that was developed based on the findings of the qualitative part. The data of the quantitative part was also collected through a questionnaire extracted from the qualitative part of the research and was tested and analyzed in the Smart PLS software environment. Finally, in order to identify and design the research model, structural-interpretive modeling method and Mac software were used.Results: The data obtained from the interviews were analyzed using the content analysis technique. In the open coding stage, 314 initial codes were identified. After the end of this stage, axial coding was done in order to relate and link the categories and indicators. In order to screen and identify the final indicators, the fuzzy Delphi analysis of the 7-degree spectrum based on the opinion of experts has been used. Finally, 60 indicators and 13 identification categories were classified into six levels based on the power of influence-dependence diagram, and the variables of the Supreme Leader's general employment policies, cultural infrastructure and the macro environment (social, economic and political fields) had the highest impact.Conclusion: The results of the research show the effectiveness of the categories of the role of the government, the role of legislators, financial infrastructure, the interactions of institutions and networks, educational and research infrastructure, management and human resources, the structure of executive organizations, the implementation of the policies of the country's higher education entrepreneurship ecosystem, the implementation The policies of the Islamic ecosystem of higher education of the country were for the realization of entrepreneurial university, and the categories of the general policies of the Supreme Leader's employment, macro environment and cultural infrastructure were determined as the basis of the policy implementation model. Also, the validity and reliability of the model was confirmed and it was found that the presented model has a good fit.