DEFENSIVE FUTURE STUDY
Year:2016 | Volume:1 | Issue:1|Papers Count:6

Defensive Diplomacy is a part of government policy which plays role as an important tool in achieving the major objectives of the armed forces and its purpose can be considered to develop favorable national and international political conditions for maintaining and expanding national and vital values of the country against actual and potential enemies. One of the characteristics of defensive diplomacy in the current situation is considered as a means of identification and legitimizing the strategic defensive policy. With the advent of foresight science, policy-making researchers have tried to take advantage of the capabilities of this science in the development of strategic planning techniques. Therefore, gradully using them them widely, foresight methods and techniques have been integrtated with them. In any foresight project, identifing main propellants are one of the basic requirements for scenario palanning. Accordingly, the aim of this paper is to identify the key propellants for the Islamic Republic of Iran's defensive diplomacy for 15 years’ horizon, and it has been conducted through combining methods such as future studies, literature review, a panel of experts and cross-matrix analysis using software Mikmak. In order to implement this project, experts’ opinions have been employed on defensive and foreign policy operation, and in the end the key drivers and propellants have been suggested.

Islamic Republic of Iran is typically located in the temporal and spatial diversity due to its anti- arrogant nature, special geopolitical position, geostrategic and geo-economic area, supporting the poor, maintaining independence policy as well as its peaceful nuclear program. This study aimed to explore the nature of a possible future hubrid war against the Islamic Republic of Iran in 1404, combining descriptive analytical technique seeks to answer the question in view of the advent of the hybrid war; how would domains, characteristics, types and tools of threats the form of possible combined war and the imposed war against Iran be like in 1404? The results of the study revealed that the nature of hybrid war against Iran in 1404, can be classified on the bases of parameters including the uncertainty of future threats, deterrence and international cooperation in eight areas such as military invasion (air to sea), proxy governmental and non-governmental, soft overthrow, all-out sanctions, non irremovable internal, cross-sectional tensions and disobedience, influence and transformation; where the most important characteristics will be the use of new weapons and cyberspace, type and means of threats will be of smart (hybrid) and its domain will focus on security-intelligence, cultural, ethnic and religious affairs.

Due to existence of certain conditions and developing forces at the level in the future wars, accuracy and velocity of the preparation procedure have special importance and is very vital and therefore it is very important to select optimal place/site as a preparation center. Thus this investigation tries to represent a practical model to select optimal places of preparation centers using mathematical models and location finding and using suggestions of elites and military experts in addition to considering the situations like minimizing the length of route and cost of operation. The current study’s purpose is applied and by nature it is descriptive-survey in which library and field research have been conducted for data collection as well as using targeted judgement method has been used in sampling. To achieve the goals in first stage, influential parameters have been identified and in the three phases: “velocity of preparation process”, “security of supportive routes”, and the possibility of establishment of equipment and sources will be calculated getting assistance from fuzzy hierarchal analysis and using elites’ opinions. Then the relative importance of the potential options of research is calculated by help of commanders and operational managers and at the next step the mathematical model of problem will be presented and designed through help obtained data and location models on the networks. Finally, using some designed scenarios and identifying fifteen options as selective candidates of supply center (network knots), the proposed model will be explained and the results will be analyzed.

A spatial data infrastructure (SDI) includes the technology, policies, standards, human resources, and related activities necessary to acquire, process, distribute, use, maintain, and preserve spatial data that is used as a sustainable mechanism to solve spatial data problems. This paper aims to address the role of spatial data infrastructure (SDI) as a framework for resolving current problems in optimum management of spatial data in order to improve the decision-making and planning in the military organization using by futurology methods for countries vision of 1404 with future studies approach. In this regard, we have extracted specific parameters in relation to strengths and weaknesses within the organization and external opportunities and threats by SWOT method using interview and questionnaire. Then statistical indicators and final score were calculated on IBM SPSS Statistics 22 software in order to achieve four strategies (SO, ST, WO, WT). At the end of research 22 strategies were selected from 676 strategy acquired of SWOT analysis matrix defining appropriate threshold to create the SDI in command and management of military systems in vision of 1404. The results indicated that the great strategy or generic consisting of 9 strategies located in area 1 (SO) SWOT matrix representing that taking measures or suggesting the use of environmental opportunities through using organizational strengths.

An organization environment has been changed to a disorderly environment; and complexity of decision and fundamental changes in organizational settings have made futurology as crucial in management; and budgeting as strategic instrument or factor have been used for encountering unpredictable accidents. The deviation of budgeting process from achieving basic organizational goals and appearance of mistakes in determining the areas of financial resource expenditure are issues that have become a difficult and permanent problems; thus many managers and planners face with questions such as how to forcast and allocate financial resources and how to determine the whole factors during budgeting process which must be taken into account. Accordingly, the main purpose of this research is to develop an appropriate theoretical framework for maximizing the effectiveness of budgeting process and avoding the deviations during budget development and implementation stages. For this purpose, after conducting library studies and wide field investigations and finally using Dephi method, developing and analyzing the questionnaire and performing interviews with authorities and experts resulted in determining the effective variables of futurology on budgeting and finally suggestions and strategies have been presented.

Regarding the current threats against the interests of I.R. of Iran, passive action and lack of planning for future and future studies in this area is very dangerous and illogical; thus, this kind of thought causes problems such as creating serious obstacles in the course of building organizational culture consistent with future, focusing merely on desirables, not identifying the needs of future and finally lagging behind from the enemies and rivals. Therefore, there is need for a pattern of threats in future battlefields. This study has qualitative and quantitative approach. In qualitative approach, according to data-based theory, data collection has been conducted through interviews, relevant document examination and theorizing on systematic approach in three main steps of open coding, axis coding and selective coding. the interview was done with 12 experts; and the results and the collected data were used in document content analysis. The obtained results were organized in form of dimension (category) and six themes (propositions) and position and relation of each of the themes were determined in the form of paradigm models and six relevant propositions were derived. Then, to assess the validity of the model and to approve it, the survey was conducted using 84 questionnaires which were sent to the experts and specialists; however, only 43 of the questionnaires were completed and received from which 37 were finally used. Six categories consist of psychological factors to threats, social and cultural factors to threats, economic factors to threats, military factors to threats- causative conditions: the US government as the biggest regional threat, arrogant regimes as the biggest world threats, state terrorism with centrality of Zionist and Saudi Arabia’s governments-background and context; which were considered as transaction and action strategies in this study and finally resulted in consequence. Therefore, the pattern of threats of qualitative research has been presented on data-based technique and paradigm model.