Iranian Journal of Economic Research
Year:2006 | Volume:8 | Issue:27|Papers Count:10

Since the advent of early business cycles theories based on self-sustaining behaviors, many theories and models have been suggested to explain causes of cyclical fluctuations. Although in the 1960s, with the acceptance of Keynesian ideas there was a less interest to identifying the sources of disturbances, today the debate over the sources and propagation of economic fluctuations still rages among macroeconomists.This paper uses a multisectoral business cycles model for identifying the role and importance of aggregate and sectoral shocks in business cycles of the Iranian manufacturing sectors. Aggregate shocks involve innovations in oil revenues, money supply, government expenditures, and real exchange rate, and productivity shocks are considered as sectoral shocks. Our results indicate that all types of shocks are important, but aggregate shocks are the dominant source of sectoral output fluctuations. Variance decomposition of the manufacturing output growth indicates that 85.4 percent of aggregate output disturbances can be explained by aggregate shocks. Therefore, macroeconomic policies inconsistent with industrial development requirements could disturb endogenous growth of the Iranian manufacturing sectors via weak total factor productivity. At the presence of the exogenous impulses, while aggregate shocks are significant sources of output fluctuations, it seems disturbances are threatening the long run economic and industrial growth, even in the oil boom periods.

Assessment of sectoral impacts of Iran's accession to the world trade organization is the prime objective of this paper. To this end a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model is employed. Using a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM), the model is calibrated to 1997 as the benchmark year. The results of the model indicate that accession of Iran to WTO leads to 2.6 percent contraction of the manufacturing sector and 1.7 percent expansion of the agricultural sector. Market access provision of WTO is most beneficial to Iranin non-oil exports, such that exports of manufacturing, mining and agriculture increase between 17.5 and 20.5 percent. Joining WTO exerts heavy pressure on mining sector, while construction sector experiences moderate expansion. An increase in international oil price can amplify the impacts of WTO accession on the expansion of the construction sector, weaken its impact on agriculture expansion and worsen its concretionary impact on Mining, Manufacturing and the Utilities.

In this paper, we analyze the long -run relationship between inflation and Total Factor Productivity (TFP) in the Iranian economy during 1338-1380.For this purpose, we use Gregory -Hansen (1996) Cointegration test. Our Study proceeds at the following steps.1. We set up a multivariate model for the analysis of the long-run relationship between inflation and Total Factor Productivity (TFP). 2. We test the unit root properties of data, and the long-run relationship between variables in the presence of structural breaks.3. We estimate endogenously the break point data.Our results from cointegration tests and dynamic ordinary least square estimator show that there is a negative relationship between inflation and productivity.

In this article, we observe that three main spatial factors play pivotal role in construction of regional input-output table (RIOT): openness of regional economy relative to national economy, size of region and size of supply and demand sectors in region relative to national economy, and finally, the relative degrees of self-sufficiency in different regions. The main focus of this article is to quantitatively analyze the following main question: "To what extent such spatial factors in construction of RIOTs in Iran have been adhered?" For this purpose simple average expenditure, output multiplier and import multiplier of nine provinces have been estimated and then compared with the corresponding national level. The overall results show that the spatial dimensions for most of the provinces have been neglected.

This paper develops a theoretical setting in which firms within industry are risk averse and maximize expected utility of profit under output price uncertainty in an oligopolistic market. The expected profit margin is under influence of increase in market share and concentration coefficient at the firm and industry levels. This effect is decomposed of efficiency cost effect as measured by marginal processing cost reduction and the effect due to output price variance under uncertainty. Furthermore, the industry' conjectural elasticity is used as a parameter to evaluate the market's degree of competitiveness. The technique of pooling time-series and cross-section is applied for 11 sugar cane factories that are listed in Tehran Exchange market over the period 1375-1382. The findings indicate that the estimate of collusion parameter is lower and it increases with higher sugar price elasticity of demand. Furthermore, the effect of output price uncertainty offsets the cost efficiency effect resulted from market share and concentration.

This paper examines the usefulness of monetary and fiscal policy on real and nominal variables in Iran's economy. Our analysis is based on annual data from 1338 to 1383, employing SUR method. The results indicate that none of the two policies, monetary and fiscal, have impact on real variables, but the role of those policies on prices are remarkable. Accordingly, it is concluded that real variables in Iran's economy cannot be affected by monetary and fiscal policies, but disinflationary effects of these policies are important.

To achieve the national goals, it is necessary to take into account the regional capabilities and advantages. Since, welfare promotion is the most important social goal in most countries, the development programs based on the regional economies must consider the degree of human development in the different regions of the economy.In this paper, for the first time in Iran, we apply "Data Envelopment Analysis" to consider the human development in Iran's provinces and will measure the efficiencies of each province in the resource utilization to produce human development index.The results show that undeveloped provinces in general have higher efficiencies than developed provinces. Therefore, it will be necessary to pay more attention to the undeveloped regions in the future planning.

Knowledge and technology play an important role in raising the demand for labour and reducing the rate of unemployment. In knowledge based economy, a rise in knowledge and skills will lead to innovations, thus raising productivity and income and reducing inflation and unemployment. Supplying high quality goods and changing consumption patterns due to technological break-through would expand markets and raise the demand for labour.On the other hand, skilled labour would lead to dynamism and technological improvements in production processes expanding production capacity and raising the export of knowledge and competitiveness in international markets. Creation of different and new job opportunities is a consequence of technological improvement. Technology improvement would reduce the number of jobs for unskilled labour and would increase the number of jobs for high skilled labour. This paper examines the impact of knowledge and technology on the demand for labour in Iran between 1350-1380. Using the OLS method, the results of the estimated model show that knowledge and technology have positive and meaningful effect on demand for labour in Iran.

The purpose of this paper is to estimate the price and income elasticites of the demand for health services in Iran. We use the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) model using the household expenditure data for the three subsections of medicine, user fees for doctors and hospitals for three income groups in the period 1971- 2001. Our results indicate that the health services are necessity for all income groups and that hygiene and/or medical services have complimentary relations with cloths and shelter.Price elasticities of hospitalization for low, medium, and high income groups are low: -0.52, -0.53 and -0.62, respectively. Overall, we conclude that the elasticity for health services is low in Iran.