IRANIAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
Year:2019 | Volume:23 | Issue:2|Papers Count:12

This article is devoted to look at how the factors micro-loan risks in microfinance are related to the micro-borrowers. In this regard, the present analysis involves the using of a set representative and fundamental variables in our research. The study basically use the socio-economic and socio-demographic features specific to the micro-borrowers, which are expected to affect the repayment delay, using the scoring models introduced to assess the micro-borrowers’ risk quality. Based on survey and logistic regression containing these features, the empirical results of econometric model show their impact on the repayment delay in the Tunisian Micro-Credit Associations.

regional imbalanced growth and the factors affecting it are one of the most important economic issues in developing countries. In this research, after evaluating the regional inequality at the provincial level of Iran, in order to examine the effect of economic factors on it, it was considered as a spatial econometric model using panel data during the period of 2001 to 2015. The evaluation of Theil inequality indices and Population-Weighted Coefficient of Variation (PW-CV) shows that Iranian provinces are extremely unequal. The results of the estimation of the research model indicate the spatial dependence among the provinces. So that the regional inequality index of each province is affected by neighboring provinces with a coefficient of 34%. In the analysis of economic factors affecting regional inequality; the increase of foreign direct investment and the ratio of industrial production, reduce the inequality of the provinces. But increased provincial spending will increase regional inequality and the tax policy has failed to succeed in redistributing revenue. The results of the study of the direct and indirect effects of explanatory variables on the PW-CV shows that regional inequality is mainly influenced by direct effects, and the effect of the total coefficients on the inequality index is significant.

this study aims to measure how much the industrial sector suppresses the development process to be sustainable in Iran. We employ a quadratic-log form of regression model to test the Industrial Environmental Kuznets Hypothesis. In addition, we use a Vector Auto-Regressive model to estimate the nexus among the industrial growth, income inequality, environmental pollution, and energy consumption in Iran during 1971 and 2014. The results confirm the Industrial Environmental Kuznets Hypothesis. Moreover, they show that all the three variables present the same response to the shock in the industrial growth since all the responses are increasing. It provides preponderance of evidence for the incompatibility of industrial growth with social, environmental, and resource development in Iran. This sector should be modified, improved, and reconstructed to pave the way for harmonization among the quadruple layers of sustainable development including industrial growth, environmental quality, social satisfaction, and optimal usage of resources. The policy-makers are advised to consider the sustainability properties in their development strategies as the development process evolves comprehensively.

before the incidence of the financial crisis in 2008, the financial sector was ignored in the most of business cycles analyses. It was assumed that the financial sector played no independent role in describing business cycle fluctuations and followed the real part of the economy. In recent years, modeling financial frictions have been much considered in business cycles literature. The present study aimed to investigate the role of financial friction in Iranian’ s business cycles. For this purpose, a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model is designed based on the structural features of the Iranian economy and is estimated by using Bayesian method and seasonal data during 1370q1-1395q4 (1991q2-2017q1). The results indicated that the consideration of financial sector in the model increased our understanding of business cycles fluctuations and financial shocks played an influential role in explaining business cycles fluctuations. Further, based on the results of the present study, the persistence of the effect of financial shocks was more compared to the supply and demand sector shocks.

productivity promotion has received a key attention in contemporary macroeconomic analysis. Productivity of labor driven, in particular, by human capital (i. e. health and education), is seen vitally more important. Labor qualities in terms of health and education (treated as flow and stock variables), have a bearing on labor productivity. The main objective of this paper is to identify the influence on productivity of health and education and delineate their relative impact, using a composite approach to human capital. Towards this end, an Autoregressive-Distributed Lag (ARDL) technique was applied to measure labor productivity over the period 1974-2014. Based on the result of model findings, attempt was made to evaluate their short and long term effects. The model applied in this paper has examined the impact of two key variables i. e. per capita capital and capacity index, in addition to human capital index (health and education) influencing collectively on labor productivity. The results indicate that all variables (Excluding the index of composite Human Capital, flow) are bearing a positive and significant impact on labor productivity in the long run. The coefficient of composite human capital index (health and education, flow variables) was greater than that of composite human capital (health and education, stock variables).

the political influence Coefficient as a power of influence and political elite lobbying (the power rents) of each region in the decision-making and national budget allocations centers is a new word through which the present article, after introducing it, is able to rank the provinces in the tenth state using the multi-criteria decision-making models (MCDM). This issue is important in terms of social justice and its role in development. For this purpose, based on the key national management posts in the form of a set of three main governmental branches: the execute one( President, first vice president, vice presidents, minister, central bank governor, chairman of the Red Crescent), the legislature (the speaker of Parliament, the members of the parliament), judiciary (Head of the Judiciary, Chairman of the Assembly of Experts, Attorney General, Head of the Supreme Court, Head of Expediency council), and the head of IRIB broadcasting that totally comprise 14 indices, the provinces are ranked by Topsis Model. According to the rankings, Tehran and Ilam have the most and least political influence of the total 31 provinces of the country in the tenth state, respectively.

tourism is one of the most invaluable industries in the world, attracting millions of foreign tourists every year. In terms of historical and cultural attractions, Iran is among top 10 countries, however, it has a small share of foreign tourist's arrival. Iran's tourism boom depends on providing the suitable conditions for the arrival of tourists, included service elements (i. e. hotels and travel agencies) and infrastructure for aviation, rail, road and naval. Inefficient use of these fundamental factors is known as the major obstacles to growth and development of tourism industry. Accordingly, we evaluate the tourism efficiency of Iran provinces along with their full ranking, based on a data envelopment analysis. The results from the weighted model indicate that Khorasan Razavi, Qom, West Azarbaijan, East Azarbaijan, Kurdistan and Isfahan provinces have the highest efficient scores. North Khorasan, South Khorasan, Golestan, Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari, Semnan and Bushehr also have the lowest scores, respectively.

this paper is to study the convergence of per capita income. Convergence clubs hypothesis is one of the forms of convergence hypotheses, implying that countries with the same initial level of economic development, technology, and government policies, tend to be similar in per capita income and thus have a tendency to cluster around a small number of poles. In order to test the hypothesis of the formation of the convergence clubs among 15 Middle East and North African (MENA) countries for the period of 1990– 2015, we used a non-parametric analysis (distribution dynamics approach). The distribution dynamics of real per capita GDP showed that “ twin peaks” were being formed in the MENA region.

in recent years, the so-called Rebound effects that stem from energy efficiency gains have been of increasing interest in the economic literature. This effect happens when improvements in energy efficiency stimulate energy demand rather than decrease it. In the recent paper using Social Accounting Matrix data on the economy of Iran, the previous research has been extended on this field by evaluating the rebound effects on urban and rural household’ s sectors. In order to measure the degree of the rebound effect, the CGE model of Iran with household sectors was used and the simulation study, assuming an exogenous energy improvement was conducted. Based on the results of the empirical analysis in this work, the highest size of the rebound effect corresponding to the urban household’ s sector was found to be approximately 6. 2 when oil and natural gas energy efficiency improves by 5%. Of course, except for electricity, in the rest of the cases there is a backfire. Moreover, in the rural households, the highest size of the return effect is 2. 06 and belongs to the distributed gas energy. Therefore, the energy conservation policy promoted by the Iranian government may be unable to attain the desired goal.

this paper analyses the relation between GNP sectors of Iran’ s economy. The different sectors of the economy directly or indirectly affect each other and can complement or follow each other. Using a number of empirical tests, the paper finds evidence of seasonal or periodic integration in the underlying data. This means that the conventional cointegration tests may not be robust and in result, a more appropriate periodic cointegration test was used. This approach, by recognizing the stochastic nature of the seasonal pattern of the time series involved, avoids inconsistent estimations, errors in statistical inference and also biases in economic policy decisions. Our results find evidence of periodic cointegration between GNP of the industry and service sectors. In addition, we find that the speed of adjustment of misalignments is different depending on the quarter. The adjustment of equilibrium misalignments is faster if they take place in the April-June period than in the rest of the year.

pomegranate is one of the most important economic products in the agricultural sector in Sistan region. This region due to dry weather, very low rainfall and frequent droughts and lack of resources for agriculture faces many problems. Hence, one way to increase agricultural production is to increase efficiency, So that it can help the economy of the region. In this study, the effectiveness of pomegranate gardens in Sistan region is considered as one of the main product. I used SFA method for data analysis. The data has been collected in Zabol, Zahak and Hirmand from 150 farmers in 2016-2017 year. The results show the technical efficiency of Zabol, Hirmand and Zahak cities are respectively 60, 55 and 67 percent. Also for the city of Zabol, age, experience, household size, number and size of garden plots for city of Zahak, experience, size of household and garden, for city of Hirmand, experience are significant impact on technical efficiency. Finally, with regard to the percentage of responding farmers, will provide suggestions for improving them.

in this paper, we have examined the effect of climate variables on the yield average and variability of major grain crops (rice, maize, and wheat) in Iran from 1983 to 2014. For this purpose, we made use of the Just and Pope Production Function crop yields panel data. The results revealed that the influences of climate variables were different in the crops. The time trend positively influenced the average crop yield and yield variability, but increasing in the maximum temperature had a negative impact on the grain yields. While the maximum temperature increased the risk of wheat production, this variable reduced the risk of maize and rice production. Minimum temperature and rainfall had positive influences on the average yields of the crops. Furthermore, minimum temperature decreased the production risk of maize and wheat. Finally, the influences of rainfall on the yield variability were positive for whole crops. Regional dummies were statistically significant for certain climate zones. It is expected that future climate changes reduce the mean yield of the crops, all the more showing the significance of crop insurance schemes and policies that mitigate insecurity of food in the light of expected climate variations in the coming years.