Journal of Economic Research and Policies
Year:2025 | Volume:33 | Issue:113|Papers Count:6

Iran has been facing various sanctions for many years. A study of macroeconomic indicators shows that these sanctions have had negative effects on various economic and social areas of Iran. In this study, we have examined the impact of sanctions on household welfare. For this purpose, in the framework of three scenarios of a 60, 65, and 70 percent reduction in oil exports, the effects of sanctions on Iran's welfare have been examined based on the equivalent change index and its components using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model. The results obtained show that the imposition of sanctions has caused a decrease in welfare based on the EV index in Iran, and the continuation and intensification of sanctions has increased the rate of decline in welfare in Iran. Also, the welfare components of "allocation efficiency", "capital ownership benefits", "savings-investment relationship", "demographic changes" and "exchange relations" have been the components that have had the greatest effect on reducing the welfare of EV equivalent changes in Iran due to sanctions, and the components of "technological changes" and "non-accumulating endowments" under the influence of the imposed sanctions have not only not reduced welfare but have improved it. According to the results obtained, policy recommendations such as; "efforts to reduce the severity of sanctions and completely remove them", "reducing production costs", "adopting non-inflationary methods to compensate for the welfare shortcomings of households", etc. have been proposed to increase welfare in Iran.

One of the foremost critical modern issues of Iran's economy is the occurrence of energy imbalance and especially gas imbalance, which due to the special position of this energy in the value added chain, the effects of this imbalance for Iran's economy are far more profound than the temporary shutdown of gas production enterprises or reduction its supply. In this research, assuming the realization of imbalance in the gas balance document in the horizon of 1420, the general balance model based on the input-output table is considered that the deviation of supply and demand (i.e. 111 million cubic meters of natural gas, which is divided into two parts, imbalance in the 4 cold months of the year and imbalance divided in 8 months of the year) is simulated equivalent to 10% unbalance. For this purpose, the input-output table of 2019, which was updated according to the RAS method, and the partial extraction model were used. The results of three research scenarios showed that 1) in case of balanced distribution of 10% gas imbalance to all 70 sectors of the economy, GDP will decrease by 67/5%. 2) If the imbalance is distributed to the sectors of the economy as well as the final demand (households, non-profit sectors, government and public sector), GPD is reduced by 78/2%. 3) If the dispatching center imposes sodium gas on the power plant, petrochemical, refinery and basic metal sectors (which have high gas demand), the economic damage will be 58/8%. In any scenario that is implemented, the "petrochemical", "power plant" and "pipeline transportation" sectors will suffer the most economic damage.

Inflation is a fundamental challenge for Iran's tax system, which causes injustice in the economic system by creating distortions such as changing the tax burden, reducing government revenues, and expanding tax evasion. The purpose of this research is to carefully examine these disorders and provide macro solutions to achieve a fair and efficient tax system in Iran's inflationary conditions. Based on the policy approaches of this research, policy makers should continuously act on the inflation indexing of Rial figures in the laws. This indexing can be done as a proportion of the tax exemption ceiling in Article 84 of the Direct Taxes Act, which is determined annually in the Budget Law. Also, in order to prevent the erosion of obligations, it is necessary in cases where shortening the legal opportunities is less harmful than the erosion of obligations due to delay, to shorten the Payment deadlines. In addition, it is necessary to determine the percentage of fines and incentives listed in Article 190 of the Direct Taxes Act, according to the expected average inflation on an annual basis.

This research proposes an optimal public real estate asset management model using the public-private partnership (PPP) approach. The model is applicable to real estates subject to revaluation through redevelopment or modification of their previous type and usage. It aims to serve as a sustainable source for reducing Iran's budget deficit while avoiding the complete transfer of ownership and public assets and generating a revenue stream for the public budget. The research utilizes a PPP model to explore how this approach can be implemented. The developed logic is described through a method that borrows mathematical tools from operations research to identify a solution that maximizes the utility functions of stakeholders involved in the revaluation and management of a public real estate asset. The results indicate that the benefits for the private investor include reduced commercial risk, lower financing costs, and easier access to bank credit. For the public sector, the model offers increased demand for the offered properties, savings in property management costs, and asset preservation, which significantly contributes to budget deficit reduction. This research provides logical support for government organizations involved in the revaluation of public real estate assets. It presents a strategic approach with a long-term perspective that reinterprets the net concession model with more flexibility and clarity for gradual privatization.

Today, many economic, political, environmental, and social challenges and risks have led to disruptions in the functioning of economic and social systems. These conditions have led to the concept of economic resilience being considered as an indicator for measuring the capacity of a society to face shocks and recover after the occurrence of risks. In the present study, first, the economic resilience index was calculated for eight oil-producing and four non-oil-producing countries in the Middle East, and then the effect of the factors affecting this index was evaluated for the period 2000-2020 using the fully modified least squares (FMOLS) method. The factors affecting economic resilience included the variables of agricultural value added, industrial value added, service value added, oil production, economic openness index, and urbanization rate. The results showed that the effect of the value added of the industrial and service sectors on the economic resilience of oil-producing and non-oil-producing countries is positive and significant. Also, the effect of the urbanization rate variable on the economic resilience of oil-producing and non-oil-producing countries was negative and significant. Accordingly, it is suggested that the countries studied pursue policies such as strengthening investment in the industrial sector, diversifying the economy, developing the service sector, investing in agricultural technology and infrastructure, facilitating international trade, and sustainable urban policies in order to improve economic resilience.

Health, both as an important social goal and as a prerequisite for economic development, has been in the focus of all governments' attention in recent decades. One of the most important indicators of health and the result of various economic, social, and... factors is life expectancy. Health index and above all life expectancy have a significant effect on important issues such as economic growth and human capital. the In this regard, the identification of factors affecting the health status and life expectancy of countries has always been of special importance. The review of literature in this field also shows that economic factors along with social and environmental factors can affect the health status of countries.Therefore, The present study tries to evaluate the effect of the index of industrialization and urbanization on the life expectancy of people in the selected countries of MENA region (Middle East and North Africa). For this purpose, using the data of 17 selected MENA countries during the period from 2000 to 2022 and using panel data, the model has been estimated. The results of the research show that the variables of GDP, urbanization rate, industrialization and health care and treatment expenses have had a positive and significant impact on the life expectancy of the people in the society.