NAMEH-YE-MOFID
Year:2003 | Volume:9 | Issue:4 (38 ECONOMICS)|Papers Count:7

This article tries to examine one of the most fundamental problems of oil producing countries i.e. their inability to have access to the real oil revenue of their own countries. Thus, while deliberating on the economic, political, and social consequences, the author discusses the effects of a decrease in the oil price on the economy of these countries and presents a simple model for estimating the effect of the dollar exchange rate on the global demand and supply of oil. Taking into view the fluctuations of dollar, the study also estimates the U.S. share of the whole global demand. Hence, the direct effects of rile-real value and purchasing power of one barrel of oil, global inflation and the dollar exchange rate and on the value of each barrel of oil are examined and tables related to purchasing power of each OPEC barrel of oil in the last two decades have been presented. Appling IMF Index, a real and nominal value of OPEC oil is provided. At the end, to defend the real price and oil revenue of the OPEC, some practical solutions are proposed.

Applying Johansen co-integration methodology, the study aims at assessing the role of the effective factors on Iran's Total Factor Productivity (TFP) during the period from 1951 to 2001. The findings show that domestic and foreign R&D capital stock, Human capital, per capita capital, openness indices, terms of trade, international reserves, oil value added, inflation rate and real effective exchange rate have important effects on TFP. The estimates suggest that the coefficients of domestic and foreign R&D capital stock, Human capital and per capita capital on TFP are larger than the others and show that the coefficients of inflation rate and real effective exchange rate are negative.

The paper is intended to review the formation of modern macroeconomic theory and to appraise the major macroeconomic schools. The authors, first, point out the Keynesian branches of macroeconomics and then discuss the Monetarist and the New-classical schools and other wings of classical macroeconomics. The paper ends with a brief conclusion by assessing the New- Keynesian schools and growth oriented theories. This paper may be considered as a comprehensive and academic source for introducing different macroeconomic schools.

Generally, special institutional frameworks are given in economic analysis. The question, however, is that what this framework is and how it can be achieved. This  study is an effort to explain the institutional structure of the efficient markets through which the formation of Iranian efficient markets can be facilitated. The analysis method employed in this research is that of the new- institutionalist approach, in which the formation and change of organizations and institutions are considered endogenous. Hence presupposing the physical situation it is investigated that which institutional structure decreases the transaction costs and maximizes individual interests.

The natural resource rich countries' underdevelopment is one of unsolved mysteries and concerns for economic, social and political researchers. To answer this mystery, various solutions have been put  forth so far. According to a most recent solution the root of the problem lies in the presence of powerful interest groups and the weakness of legal institutions which prepare the ground for rent seeking and results in an economic underdevelopment. This paper looks at the abundance of resources from a political economic perspective and spells out the behavior of the saving rate variable in the framework of institutions and interest groups' conflicts. Introducing the "greed effect" the author shows that the saving rate will behave anti-cyclical and the consumption will exceed the abundance of resources. At the end, a quantitative and qualitative investigation demonstrates the impact of greed on Iran's oil boom in mid 1950s.

The private investment in any country is influenced by economic variables such as inflation rate, exchange +rate, public investment, foreign direct investment as well as by institutional variables related to the security of investment circumstances. The paper focuses on the effect of security variables on Iran's private investment. The findings show that the institutional variables such as political stability, the rule of law and order, the risk of internal and external conflicts, and the gap between public expectations and the government economic performance has a substantial and significant effect on the ratio of private investment to the GDP. The effect of the two variables: "the accountability of the administration against public and democratic institutions" and "corruption of the administration" on the ratio of private investment to the GDP is negative but not highly significant. The impact of variables: "the risk of weak commitment to contracts" and "confiscation of private investments by government" is positive but insignificant and "the quality of administrative system" and "the risk of tribal conflicts" do not show a significant relationship with private investment to GDP ratio. The application of cumulative indices, - derived from aggregation of all or some of the aforesaid institutional indices, -demonstrates that the nature and performance of government highly affects on Iran's private investment.

Given the importance of food products in households' basket, the study carries out a systematical analysis of the urban households' food expenditure during 1983-2000. In this system (AIDS), the food cost share has been considered as a function of the given foodstuff price, the price of all other foodstuff and allocated real income. To design the model, the food stuff has been divided into 8 categories: 1. rice, flour, its processed products, 2. meat (beef), 3. meat (chicken and fisheries), 4. dairy products, 5. vitamins, 6. animal oil, 7. herbal oil and 8. all other food products. Using economic variables, based on microeconomic theory, the cost share and the cost and income elasticity are estimated The parameters are estimated by applying the pooled time series and cross-section data and seemingly unrelated regression techniques and the stationary of the model variables are examined through the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test. Taking into view the homogeneity and symmetry test the authors go on to specify the model by the Error-Correction Method. As the households' decisions about the food expenditure are made in a two-stage process, the two-stage budgeting technique is employed. The findings show that the income elasticity for food is lower than unity and for other goods is greater. Also, in foodstuff category, the own-price elasticities have correct sign and the income elasticities for rice, flour, and its products, dairy products, herbal oil and vitamins are lower than unity and for the other foodstuff are greater.