JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC MODELING RESEARCH
Year:2019 | Volume:9 | Issue:36|Papers Count:7

The inflation rate, which measured using consumer price index, can be separated into a combination of two persistent and temporary components. This separating is particularly important in analyzing inflation rate and policies to control it. In fact, without knowing the persistent component of inflation, called core inflation, quantitative targeting of inflation may not be accurate. Core inflation as a more persistent component can be measured stripping out the transitory movements in prices. The understanding of the behavior of the national core inflation rate series needs to understand provincial core inflation since the construction of the former is based on the provincial series. So, the purpose of this paper is the estimation of provincial and national core inflation in Iran. Core inflation is unobservable variable, so it estimated using Space State Model and Kalman Filter. Results show that average core inflation in all of the provinces, as well as Iran, is less than average underlying inflation. The standard deviation of core inflation in some provinces is more than underlying inflation. While core inflation in other provinces, as well as Iran, has more standard deviation as compared to underlying inflation.

This paper studies the relationship between housing prices and business cycles in Iran. Since housing has a dual nature, that is, both private and capital nature, it can play an important role in investment costs and economic growth and incite other manufacturing sectors in the country. In this paper, housing prices and business cycles have been used to measure housing as a collateral, which is included in corporate credit constraints as well as a shock based on observations in housing price fluctuations. In order to investigate the relationship between housing prices, investment and economic fluctuations in Iran, seasonal data for the period 1991-2016 was used. To evaluate this dynamic, a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model has been used. The results show a movement between housing prices and business investments influenced by the dynamics of housing prices in the macroeconomic. The results also indicate that the inclusion of housing prices as a collateral could be a factor in increasing the asset value of firms and, consequently, borrowings and future investments that lead to a move between housing prices and Investment and economic fluctuations in the country.

After the recent financial crisis, especially the financial crisis 2008, This raises the important question of what is the role of monetary policy in occurrence and prevention of the financial instability? so, this paper investigate the dynamics impact of monetary policy on the stock market returns and instability using Structural Vector Autoregression (SVARs) model During the period 1992: q2 to 2017: q1. In this study, the effect of monetary policies via the various monetary tools used by the Central Bank on the stock market is studied. to illustrate the performance of monetary policies, the four variables of weighted interest rate, monetary base growth rate, bank reserve ratio, and growth of commercial banks' debt to the central bank have been used as monetary policy tools. The results of the impulse response function(IRF) show that monetary policy tools do not affect the stock market returns and instability. The results of the Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD) also show that the share of monetary tools in explaining the changes in stock market returns and instability is insignificant and less than ten percent each. Although, the monetary base share is higher than the others, so the central bank's policy tools do not has a particular impact on the behavior and instability of the stock market.

The main objective of this paper is to investigate the impact of corruption on the military burden of developing countries during the 2000-2015 period. To achieve this goal, a general model of military expenditures, two indexes of corruption including corruption perceptions and control of corruption, Panel Co-integration analysis and two-stage system generalized method of moment estimator (SGMM), has been used. The results of the estimation of the research model show that the effect of corruption on the military burden of the studied countries is positive and significant. According to other results, civilian spending (as an opportunity cost of military spending) and democracy have had a negative and significant impact on the military burden of developing countries. . Population as a social variable has a positive and significant effect on the military burden of developing countries, which indicates that defense is a public good. Per capita income and lagged military expenditure also have a positive and significant effect on the military burden of the studied countries. The average military burden of the countries of the world has also had a positive and significant impact on the military burden of developing countries, which indicates a rivalry of arms.

In this paper, we try to develop and modify the basic model of the consumption-based capital asset pricing model by adding the growth in real money balances rate as a risk factor in the household's utility function as (M-CCAPM). For this purpose, two forms of utility function with constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) preferences and recursive preferences have been used such that M1 and M2 are considered as inputs in the utility function. After estimating the systems of Euler equations using generalized moments method, MSE, MAE, and HJ criteria were used to select the most suitable model for estimating the share of variable of real money balance. The above criteria show that the model with the input of liquidity (M2) and preferences with constant relative risk aversion is the most appropriate model. The results indicate that the share of real money balance in the utility function of Iranian households is statistically significant and is about 34%. Therefore, considering the contribution of the monetary variable to the utility function which is relatively significant, it is emphasized on its entry into the utility functions used in asset pricing models.

Given the importance of the issue and the undeniable role of the environment in the community's life, in this research, it is attempted to test the hypothesis of the relationship between the government size and composition of government expenditure (Current and developmental) on carbon dioxide emissions in Iran during 1971-2016 based on autoregressive distributed lag approach. To better explain, the above hypothesis is based on two parts of production (production industries) and Consumable (household, commercial, general; and transportation) has been investigated. Long-run results show that despite the fact that government size does not affect carbon dioxide emissions; the current cost ratio and developmental spending ratio of government respectively have a direct (undesirable) and reverse (favorable) effect on carbon dioxide emissions. In addition, the developmental spending ratio of government in both production and consumable sectors has a reverse effect on the carbon dioxide emissions of these sectors. However, the current cost ratio of government in both sectors does not have a significant effect. Energy intensity has a direct effect on carbon dioxide emissions in general format, and although the energy intensity of the production sector has no significant effect on the carbon dioxide emission ratio in this section but in the consumable sector, energy intensity is associated with direct (undesirable) effects on carbon dioxide emissions.

The existence of a stable source of income for the government is crucial for the financing of current and development expenditures. The major revenues of the government in Iran are derived from two sources of tax and oil revenues. Given that much of the oil revenue fluctuations are outside the control of domestic policymakers, it is better to focus on tax revenues in order to earn relatively stable revenues. However, tax revenues are also affected by cycles of boom and recession, and in terms of economic downturns, it is also difficult to earn money from this source. Thus, the solution for this problem is that the total tax revenue of the country is considered as a portfolio of income and applied to the methods of the financial economics to optimize it, in this way, an optimal combination Tax will be specified. Accordingly, in this study, by collecting information on different government revenues during the period of 1971-2017 and using the Markovitz model from two approaches to minimize risk and maximize returns, the optimal contribution of different tax bases for Iran has been calculated. The results show that the current share of the tax revenue base of the country is different from the optimal share.