Journal of Economic Research
Year:2020 | Volume:55 | Issue:1|Papers Count:11

The purpose of this paper is to determine the effective factors on the resilience of Iran's trade system. Trade system vulnerabilities are considered as an important factor in reducing resilience. So, according to the existing resilience literature, and using the Grounded Theory approach, and the Bayesian Model Averaging approach, indicator factors were extracted. Four variables were identified in the presence of 23 variables; which include Risk index, oil export ratio to non-oil exports, free and official exchange rate differences, and Consuming imports to aggregate import ratio, as important variables. It shows that these variables should be considered more than other variables in assessing the effect of trade system.

The purpose of this study is to apply dynamic efficiency in regulation of urban water and wastewater companies in Iran. To this end, a dynamic stochastic frontier model that considers the heterogeneity in the long-term technical eficiency of the companies has been used to estimate the dynamic efficiency of 35 urban water and wastewater companies for the period of 2011-16 using the Bayesian approach. The research findings show that, in the absence of heterogeneity among companies, the inefficiency persistence is greater than the time when this heterogeneity is considered.

In this study, we construct a structural model of labor market in Iran in order to estimate the labor mobility cost using micro data. The model benefits from heterogeneity in age, gender, household location, and education and estimate varying labor mobility costs conditional on these factors and the origin and destination of the mobility. We find that 1) inter-sectoral labor mobility in Iran is substantial and range between 3 to 11 times of average per capita income 2) the labor mobility costs is higher for women, educated laborer, old, and rural population 3) if the cost vanishes to zero, the production in tradable and non-tradable sector increase by 36 and 16 percent, respectively. These estimates provide significant evidence that implementing major policy changes can bring substantial welfare loss especially for laborers with lower education and in rural areas.

The financial system is stable when it has a positive effect on the performance of the economy and does not hinder it. Accordingly, a financial system must be able to withstand shocks and keep the allocation of savings, data transfer, payment system, etc. efficient and effective. In this study, first using global experience and data from Iran from 1990 to 2016, an aggregate index of financial stability under the four dimensions of "debtor institutions", "macroeconomics", "foreign sector" and "institutional quality" for Iran was built. After constructing the aggregate index, the most effective indicators on the "fluctuations" and "average value" of the aggregate financial stability index have been identified using the sensitivity analysis method. The results show that of the 48 available indicators, the "ratio of government budget deficit to GDP", which is one of the main indicators of "government financial health" in the "institutional quality" dimension, has the most negative effect on "fluctuations" and "average value" of the aggregate index of financial stability. Therefore in order to improve financial stability in Iran, the greatest focus should be on controlling the "ratio of government budget deficit to GDP. "

In the twelfth paragraph of Overall employment policies, issued by the supreme leader of Iran, the "reduction of the provincial unemployment in the provinces which have the rates above the national average" has been argued as a general policy. This subject can be interpreted in terms of gender point of view into two parts, the proximity of females and males unemployment rates in the provinces to the average unemployment rate of the country. While the theoretical foundations and available studies have indicated a significant relationship between provincial labor market development and social harms but, the results of these studies are different. Therefore, this research attempts to explore the interaction between the labor market and social harms in terms of gender in the provinces of Iran. The labor market development in this study is estimated with female employment indicators and integrated by using TOPSIS method. Also social harms of the provinces are measured by using the divorce rates. Using panel data method, the results of this research suggest that there is a significant and negative relationship between the females’ labor market development and divorce rates. In other words, the divorce rates have reduced by the females’ labor market development. From the policy point of view, this finding recommends the possibility of modifying the social harm by an economic decision.

This study tries to predict the rental rates in district six of Isfahan for five years in the future by using an agent-based model. According to this simulation, district of Hezar Jerib has the highest and Hemat Abad has the lowest rental rate. Districts of Sa'adat Abad, Abshar, Baghnegar, Feiz, Masjed Mosala, Kuye Emam, Takht-e Foulad and Shahid Keshvari are followed by the district of Hezar Jerib. From the demand point of view, the high rental rate in Hezar Jerib district is due to higher comfort index in that region. From the supply point of view, the high rental rate in Hezar Jerib district is due to low supply of residential units.

The firms in duopoly markets adjust their behavior under strategic interactions to attain more market share and try to compete by different policies. In this study, we used non-delayed and delayed forms of differential game model to investigate competition between firms. Regarding quality as one of the state variables and related control variables of two firms, we have compared the results of two models and have discussed about the results of delayed form. When the delay, which is an unfavorable phenomenon, happens, the firms must behave corresponding to the equilibrium relations derived from the delayed differential game model. Effort of each firm to improve its product quality is influenced by either its delay or its competitor’ s delay. The firm having less delay is able to achieve higher quality by means of less effort.

This study investigates the relationship between shadow economy and inequality of income using smooth transition regression model (STR) as one of the most prominent regime switching models, over the period 1969 to 2015. To this end, we used the Consumption expenditure ratio to GDP as the government size variable and transition variable. Gini coefficient was used to measure income inequality and data on the shadow economy have been extracted using the MIMIC approach. Linearity test results indicate non-linear relationship between shadow economy and income inequality. The results show that the threshold level is 2. 67% and estimated slope parameter is 8. 20. In the first regime, shadow economy has a positive impact on income inequality, but the impact of the per capita income is negative and significant. In the second regime, shadow economy and per capita income have a different effect than income on inequality. In other words, with increasing government size, shadow economy has a negative impact on income inequality, but the impact of per capita income is positive.

Asymmetric information in insurance markets leads to adverse selection and moral hazard. The amount of asymmetric information could change over time due to learning. Unlike other insurance contracts, supplementary health insurance contracts in Iran are in group form. Therefore, between group asymmetric information might play an important role. In this article, positive correlation test is used to test presence of between group asymmetric information. Since acute hospital disease category does not have moral hazard, adverse selection is separately identified. Finally, using the temporal variation in insurance contracts, moral hazard is separated from learning. The data is a panel of insurance contracts from Asia Insurance Company, for two types of paraclinical and hospital health services, during the period of 20112016. Results show no asymmetric information for acute hospital disease and since there is not any moral hazard, we can conclude no between group adverse selection. For paraclinical services, we find significant evidence for asymmetric information, mainly due to moral hazard. We also found evidence of learning for insured groups.

Today, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization is considered as a major regional organization in order to pursue trade liberalization among it’ s members. Since Iran is now an observer state in the Shanghai Convention and is at the stage of its accession to the treaty, the purpose of this study is to assess the potential economic impacts of Iran's membership in the SCO using the Global Simulation model (GSIM). Accordingly, four scenarios including 25%, 50% and 75% reduction in tariff rates (incomplete liberalization) and 100% eliminatiom (full liberalization) in tariff rates are considered. The effects of tariff liberalization are estimated at 13 major export commodities in both scenarios. Research findings suggest that joining Iran into the Shanghai organization and eliminating tariff rates will increase the net welfare and cause trade creation in the Iran and Shanghai bloc. However, the welfare effects and the degree of trade creation in full liberalization are more than incomplete liberalization. Therefore, it is possible to consider Iran’ s membership in the Shanghai agreement as a useful convergence.