Macroeconomic Research Letter
Year:2015 | Volume:10 | Issue:20|Papers Count:7

In this paper the Smuggling imports & its determinants are calculated in Iran during the period from 1350-1388 For this purpose, with using a fuzzy method, 10 scenarios were designed and implemented in MATLAB programming environment. The results indicated that the smuggling imports during the period under consideration in spite of the large fluctuations, has been rising in total. Also, based on the findings for 1350-1366 the average tariff rate in comparison with other factors under consideration have a greatest impact on smuggling imports. Furthermore, this study showed that in the first & second development plan, inflation is more important than other factors in the smuggling imports. Based on the results, in the third & fourth development plan, the most important factor is tax burden.

This article aimes to estimate consumer demand function using Dynamic Linear Almost Ideal Demand System and Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) method in 1982-2007 period. Seven income classes of urban areas in Iran are selected as cross-sections and then using the estimated own-price and cross-price elasticities, we try to compare the consumption behavior of households in the several income classes under consideration. To undertake this task, several hypotheses includeding homogeneity and symmetry hypothese are tested. Results show that the consumers in low-income class face with money illusion, meaning that they are insensitive to their real income. Again, high-income class consumers are not sensible to their real incomes when food and miscellaneous goods are under investigation, while this is not the case when they consume clothing and housing goods. Results also confirm the assymmetry hypothesis in the consumer behavior. The examination of demand-law hypothesis show negative own- price elasticities in all commodity groups, as is expected. Results of estimation of income elasticities indicate that food and housing groups are essential but miscellaneous and clothing groups are luxury, when the low-income group is under consideration. For high-income group, hygienic commodities, found to be more essential than all of the other commodity groups are. Moreover, survey of cross-price elasticities show that for the same commodity groups, substitute and supplementary properties are different in various income groups.

One of the main sources of private finance is private credit given through domestic banking system. Based on economic literature, government budget structure could have dual effect on bank's lending performance. The Aim of This Study is investigating the effect of budget structure through government expenditure and government borrowing from banking system on private credit in IRAN. For this purpose 1971-2009 time series data and Johansen-juselious co-integration approach has been used.Empirical results show that both government expenditure and government borrowing lead to negative effects on private credit. These results are more consistent with the "lazy bank" view in IRAN. ECM results also show that budget financing through domestic banking system comparing with government expenditure, cause quickly crowding out of credit from private sector.

The Economy of the Third World countries such as Iran is mostly dependent on agricultural product mainly produced in the farms. In order to improve the modes of traditional agricultural products and to optimize the use of land it is necessary to increase economic growth to achieve sustainable development in Iran. It should be noted that without paying attention on development as well as outlook plan the country cannot achieve its economic goals especially in agriculture sector. The present paper deals with the value added of the economic sectors in 30 provinces of Iran during the country’s 4th economic development plan (i.e. 2005-2009),The results based on the pane data regression estimation indicate that the growth of agricultural products have positive and significance impacts on the growth of the provinces GDP. Therefore, it is suggested that to achieve the macroeconomic goals in agriculture sector, the government must seriously concentrate on agricultural products.

In this paper analysis the effects of parameters uncertainty on designed optimal monetary policy in Iran. For this purpose after the estimate linear and non linear Taylor monetary policy rule, coefficient of this estimation used for simulation model uncertainty during 1971-2012. General method of moment approach is used for estimation of non-linear model. The result show that in inflation persistence uncertainty for avoids bad outcome monetary policy in future, robust policy is optimal. In parameter uncertainty conservatism response is good. In uncertainty of policy effects in impulse to economic shocks, policy makers should designed less aggressively policy. response policy to inflation and output gap in uncertainty is greater than the certainty equivalence. In uncertainty of inflation targeting coefficient of optimal impulse is greater than the other uncertainty.

This paper examines for the behavior of inflation and unemployment in Iran for the period 2005-2011. More specifically, we use a general game-theoretic model with asymmetric preferences developed by Ruge-Murcia (2003). The general model allows us to examine the predictions of the Barro-Gordon and Cukierman-Gerlach models regarding inflation-unemployment behavior in Iran. We apply GARCH model to estimate conditional variance of unemployment. The model is estimated by maximum  likelihood method. Our results reject the prediction of Barro-Gordon model and support the Cukierman’s prediction regarding inflation behavior in Iran. Moreover, the estimation results confirm the asymmetric behavior of the central bank in Iran. In other words, our finding shows that monetary authorities are more concerned with positive deviation of unemployment from its natural rate than its negative deviation. Moreover, we find that conditional variance of unemployment is an important determinant of inflation rate in Iran. It implies that the policymakers in Iran might avoid further inflation by preventing fluctuations in labor market.

This study aims to examine the impact of uncertainty on the demand for money in Iran form 1990Q1 – 2010Q4. First, I focus on the relation between uncertainty and demand for money with the emphasis of Keynes conception. Using autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach of cointegration. My empirical results indicate that the effect of the GNP and uncertainty index on real money demand is positive and significant while inflation rate on real demand for money is negative and significant. Furthermore, the results of the model estimation indicate that the effect of uncertainty on M1 is negative and insignificant, but the effect of uncertainty on M2 is positive and significant.