JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC MODELING RESEARCH
Year:2019 | Volume:10 | Issue:37|Papers Count:6

This study examines the relationship between per capita income and per capita dioxide emissions in the form of a new definition of the Environmental Kuznets Curve, to investigate how corruption influences the income level at the turning point of the relationship between per capita dioxide emissions and income, in developed and developing countries the period 1994-2013 through the use of a panel data model. Our results support the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis for developed countries and existence of an U-shaped relation for developing countries. We find evidence that the higher the country's degree of corruption, the higher the per capita income at the turning point for developed countries and the lower the per capita income at the turning point for developing countries than when corruption is not accounted for. Also, the share of renewable energy in both groups of countries has a negative and significant effect on per capita dioxide emissions, but the positive effect of urbanization rate in developed countries is significant and in developing countries is not.

Life insurance is one of the most important economic instruments. Considering the important role of life insurance, this study investigates the life insurance capability in Iran. For this purpose, the Panel ARDL model has been used. Then, for the period 1990-2016, suitable models for the first group (Iran with the leading countries in the industry), the second group (Iran with the countries that were close to Iran in premiums) and the group Third (countries in two groups) were estimated. Based on models, the fitted value of life insurance premiums per capita in Iran is analyzed and compared as the potential or optimal level in each groups. The results showed that in each group, the actual life insurance premiums per capita in Iran are significantly lower than the optimal level. The capacity level of life insurance in Iran compared with first group is 46%, and compared with second group is about 42% and compared with third group is about 44%. The results indicate that Life insurance in our country has a high potential, and a large part of the insurance capacity in our country has not yet been fully acquired.

International balance of payments is one of the most common criteria for measuring the flow of trade and capital transfers in an open economy. The three main components of this balance are: trade balance, current account (or difference between export and import of goods and services) and capital account. In this study, factor augmented vector autoregressive model (FAVAR) was used to evaluate the effects of balance of payments shocks on macroeconomic variables in the Iran economy in periode 1989-2017. The factors used in this study included economic growth, oil revenues, money growth, inflation, exchange rates and interest rates. The results show that the shock from the current account and capital account led to an increase in production, consumption and investment. The reaction of nominal sector variables such as inflation and interest rate to positive shock was also positive. Comparison of the results of this study shows that incorporation of hidden variables and factors into the model resulted in faster response of macroeconomic variables to the shocks entered by the balance of payments components.

Oil price wild fluctuations impact the economies of developing countries as well as those of developed ones. Focusing on OPEC’ s political risks as a proxy of precautionary demand, this study aims to disentangle oil price factors using an SVAR approach for 1994Q1 to 2016Q4. We disentangled oil price shocks into political risks, supplies, global demand for industrial goods and other oil price shocks. Our results highlight that shocks originated from different sources affect oil prices differently in terms of both their lifetime and directions. Besides, it is revealed that the structure of oil market has changed due to the 2008 financial crisis, increased oil price fluctuations, changes in OPEC’ s behaviour and accordingly its market power, and the advent of new shale oil technologies, thus affecting oil price sensitivities. Therefore, we found out that OPEC’ s political risks affected oil markets way more significantly in 2008-2016.

Speculative demand in the land and housing market has a fundamental role in raising the price of land and housing and causing a diversion and invasion of the housing sector with the aim of profit. The government, by imposing a tax on rent of land and housing return, seeks to control speculation, allocate the land resources and urban housing and make money to build the urban infrastructure. In this study, optimal taxation on the return of housing capital is analyzed in the framework of a dynamic optimization model in Iran. Then, the calibration and sensitivity analysis of the macro variables was done to change the tax rate on housing capital return. Finally, using the GAMS software, the optimal path of macro variables was simulated in different scenarios during the period (2016-2040). In steady state, the results of the sensitivity analysis of macro variables indicate that by increasing the tax rate on the return of housing capital from zero to 25%, and decreasing the tax rate on the return of business capital from 25% to zero, increased the level of business capital per capita, production per capita and consumption per capita by 50. 62%, 13. 47% and 25. 27% respectively, and decreased the level of housing capital per capita by 31. 5%. Also, the results of the simulation indicate that the imposing tax on the return of housing capital at a rate of 4% compared to the current state of the economy, has led to upward the optimal path of business capital per capita, production per capita and business capital per capita and gone down housing capital in the long run during the transition period.

Abstract: In this paper, in order to investigate the economic effects of the minimum wage policy on macroeconomic variables in the framework of the new Keynesian theory, a dynamic stochastic equilibrium general (DSGE) model has been simulated and estimated for an open and small oil exporter economy conforming with the structure of Iran's economy in the range from 1370 to 1395. In the above mentioned model, nominal rigidity (wages and prices) and consumer habits are considered to be in line with the economic condition of the country, the labor market is classified in to sectors of unskilled and skilled labor. The main purpose of this study is to find an answer determining the annual minimum wage based on the CPI mechanism, in which the economy is exposed to supply demand shocks and monetary and financial policies, impacts on the macroeconomic variables, namely GDP, inflation, employment and total wage growth. The results of the simulation and estimation of this model, which show that the simulated data torques are consistent with real-world are based data based on calibration, show that by an increase in the minimum wage can contribute to not only a rise in inflation and total wage level, but also a fall in GPD, consumption &investment in the short time.