DEFENSIVE FUTURE STUDY
Year:2020 | Volume:4 | Issue:15|Papers Count:6

Increasing changes in technological, social, economic, and political sectors, on the one hand, and cross impact between these areas, on the other hand, have put planners and decision makers in a highly complex and uncertain environment. In such a situation, decision-making based on a set of assumptions and a prediction of the future is not sufficient, and consideration of scenarios or alternative futures is necessary. Understanding Baseline and alternative futures is a key point in connecting the organization's vision to the organization's plans. Given that the current models for the foresight process are diverse due to different specialized fields as well as the evolution of the models, it is difficult for researchers to select a model. Therefore, this paper proposes a new process framework for foresight studies by identifying and examining existing models and their components and relationships based on the meta-Synthesis approach. In this regard, 32 foresight models were identified and evaluated on the basis of more than 40 components in the form of three general categories of “ model parts” , “ model features” and “ research method. ” The Meta-Synthesized model includes these main sections: "Preparation", "mapping the system of issue", "identifying baseline, alternative and desirable futures", “ designing strategies and plans” , and finally “ Promote results and model evaluation“ .

Success of project-oriented organization and its future depends to achievement of goals of its projects. Alignment of projects to organization’ s goals and roadmap and best selection of them with respect to limited resource is the main challenge of these organizations. Weighting of project prioritization indexes is based on politics that should support the all of organization's goals. There are tradeoff and conflict between politics and because of inherent delay in system, the result of implementation of them will be appeared in future. So we should simulate the result of implementation of politics to foresight the result of organization by best selection of projects. We use system dynamics approach to simulate and analyze implementation of politics of project portfolio management by VENSIM software. We used experts to approve the structure of model and relation between factors. These experts are from all of organization sections to all aspect of project portfolio management. For validation of simulation result compare the historical data with result of model for some of key variables. In this research we simulate the policies of project selection in a system dynamics model and the key variable and leverage factor of R&D project portfolio management system will be recognized based on analyzing the result of simulation and then we propose a model that we can achieve the best of organization goals.

After the crisis, one of the most important goals of humanitarian logistics organizations is to transport essential goods to the affected areas as quickly as possible. To this end, decisions must be made on the supply of vehicles and their routing and scheduling. The problem of humanitarian aid transportation after the crisis is of particular importance because of the lack of vehicles, the uncertainty conditions, and the immediate and unpredictable changes. This paper deals with the issue of supply, routing and scheduling of vehicles in uncertain conditions with the aim of delivering the necessary goods within the specified time window to affected locations at the minimum cost. Accordingly, at first, the sources of uncertainty in the post-crisis transport and humanitarian relief problem are extracted, including uncertainties in the cost of using the vehicles, travel time and also fuzzy constraints. Then a fuzzy mixed integer programming model for the problem is proposed that simultaneously incorporates the fuzzy objective function, fuzzy constraints and fuzzy parameters. To achieve a sustainable strategy, fuzzy credibility programming approach has been proposed to deal with uncertainty and provide a solution that can find sustainable strategies against post-crisis environmental changes. The final model is implemented in AMPL optimization software and computational results are presented to evaluate the proposed model and method.

Present paper has been done with the aim of identifying and prioritizing total rewards package based on satisfaction indicators of knowledge workers and based on an analytical-descriptive method. Therefore, in the first step, the most important total rewards package and satisfaction indecators of knowledge workers based on library-analytical were identified. In the next step Analathical hierarchical Prasses of total reward package based on content analysis were identified. At the end by setting a standard questionnaire total reward package based on satisfaction indicators of knowledge workers were prioritized by using ARAS-G method. Statistical populations consist of 10 experts of knowledge companies in defensive industry. Result showed that the elements of non financial rewards such as post (0. 968) and success (0. 943) created the highest satisfaction and the elements of financial reward such as wage and salory (0. 609) created the lowest satisfaction for knowledge workers.

The contemporary world is full of unexpected events and uncertainties. Futures research is an approach that can eliminate ambiguities and allow for greater understanding of the future. In recent years, researchers have proposed a variety of methods for future research that the selection of the appropriate method with regard to the field of application and influential indicators will be a challenging and complex decision. Especially in the field of defense; because of: dynamics and agility of the environment, ambiguous and uncertain conditions, wide range of influencing variables and the variety of assignment missions; the choice of futures method will be more important and complex. Identification and prioritization of influential criteria can help experts in this field to make the best decision and improve organizational performance. For this purpose, in this study two methods of fuzzy Delphi and Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) have been used. Applying fuzzy logic in addition to expert-based approaches (Delphi and hierarchical analysis) along with the consensus of experts also takes into account the uncertainties in human judgments. In the purpose dimension, present study is in the applied research group and in the method dimension, in the descriptive survey research group that has been analyzed by a mixed (qualitative and quantitative) approach. Finally, 12 criteria for evaluating defense research futures were identified, weighed and prioritized.

Futures-based maritime power includes our beliefs about how to transform and build a different future in the maritime. power field, including four parts: international trade control, the ability to exploit and control oceanic resources, naval operational capability in war, maritime economic power to The title is the instrument of diplomacy as well as deterrence and political influence in peacetime, and military thought means a set of coherent, well-reasoned, important and rational thoughts on military affairs research aim Presentation a future-based model of maritime an emphasis on defensive Military Thoughts of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief of Armed Forces. This research regarding its goal is practical and regarding gathering it's data is qualitative paradigm and using content analysis, the speeches and statements of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief of Armed Forces, Data was analyzed through Maxqda12 software and coding method and finally the charts were plotted with Mindmapper 2008 software. The data from the analysis consist of 12 axes including (a) naval-defense objectives, (b) naval-defense policy, (c) naval-military doctrine (d) military strategy, (e) human resources, and (ii) training and research, G) military equipment and weapons, h) organizational structure, i) logistics and support, and i) commanders, and also has 22 codes and 64 sub-codes.