JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC MODELING RESEARCH
Year:2019 | Volume:9 | Issue:35|Papers Count:7

Iran's economy as a developing and oil economy, needs to choose appropriate exchange rate regime is to achieve its economic goals. Some characteristics such as little diversity in production and trade, weak and underdevelopment financial markets and other features of the Iranian economy, Requires the choice of exchange rate regime be based on the features of the country. However, the choice of exchange rate regime a country, many variables affect that regardless of their choice of currency regime will be difficult and illogical. Hence, in this study using survival analysis and use of Reinhart and Rogoff approach to investigate the role of political and economic factors on the choice of a fixed exchange regime in Iran based on monthly data during the period 1980-2017. The advantage of survival analysis method it is time dependence that may exist in the occurrence of an event be included and the time can be used as a proxy for structural factors and unobservable variable in country. The results showed that political and economic variables affect the choice of the fixed exchange system in the country. The impact of political variables on the country's exchange rate regime shows that only economists are not involved in the decision on the exchange rate in Iran, and the preferences of political officials have a significant impact on foreign exchange policies.

The purpose of current paper is to survey the asymmetric effects of inflation's positive and negative shocks on inflation uncertainty in short-run and long-run. For this end, first, the Ball model (1992) has been extended through the decomposition of inflation shocks to money demand's positive and negative shocks and money supply's positive and negative shocks. Then, through using nonlinear autoregressive distribution lag model and time series data of Iranian economy from 1978 to 2017 the positive and negative effects of inflation on inflation uncertainty, which is from the exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model, has been analyzed. The results of the study show that the effects of the inflation's positive shocks on inflation uncertainty in short-run and long-run are positive and significant. In contrast, the negative shocks have not any effects on inflation uncertainty in short-run and long-run. In other words, the rise in inflation causes an increase in inflation uncertainty in Iran; whereas, decrease in inflation has not had effects on inflation uncertainty.

In this paper, the Expanding extraction method of Dietzenbacher & Lahr (2013) is used and in the form of Input-Output general equilibrium model. The article assesses and evaluates the importance of the energy sector and its sub-sections in the Iranian economy based on Iranian input-output table of 2017 that is updated by RAS approach. In this way, the 10% reduction in the supply of coal, crude oil and natural gas, electricity and gas consumed has been investigated in four scenarios. Additionally, in the fifth scenario, by aggregating energy subsectors into one sector, the 10% reduction in the supply of energy in interaction with 75 sectors is measured. The results of this simulated model show that by reducing the supply of energy sector, "Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products" will drop by 9% in value. Respectively, "Transport via pipeline" and "Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products" reduced by 4% and 2% in value added.

In this research, the factors affecting assets quality in banking system of Iran and some implications for creating appropriate buffers of liquidity and non-performing loans in bank assets management has been investigated. In order to that, statistical data related to macroeconomic variables and financial statements of 30 banks from 2006 to 2016 have been used in the framework of a dynamic panel specification. The results indicate that there is a significant relationship between inflation rate, domestic gross production growth rate, bank share of total revenues, market Structure and bank liquidity with asset quality, but the growth rate of facilities and special and general reserves for non-performing loans have no significant effect on asset quality. Thus, the framework and the amount of special and general reserves for non-performing loans (unlike the liquidity buffer) failed to provide the necessary buffer to improve the quality of bank assets; so, one of the most important reasons for the persistent aggravation and lack of management of the volume of non-performing loans in banking system is dysfunctional and non-observance of the law in the maintenance of special and general reserves. The main requirement for correcting these conditions is to closely monitor the volume of reserves before refinancing and double overdraft from the central bank and other banks and credit institutions.

Homogeneity of groups in studies those use cross section and multi-level data is important. Most studies in economics especially panel data analysis need some kinds of homogeneity to ensure validity of results. This paper represents the methods known as clustering and homogenization of groups in cross section studies based on enviro-economics components. For this, a sample of 92 countries which produce the most greenhouse gases including CO2, clustered based on 18 criteria. Those criteria reduced to five primary components using factor analysis. Clustering of countries done by HCPC (Hierarchical Clustering on Principal Component) method. All 92 countries were clustered in 7 different groups. For each group properties of countries indicates the homogeneity of each cluster. In cross section analysis with many sections, especially analysis based on panel data, clustering, increases assurance of expected homogeneity and validity of result.

Exchange rate changes could impact on prices. Whether exchange rate pass through to prices is complete or incomplete is an interesting question in analyzing impacts of exchange rate policy. An important aspect of exchange rate pass through is in producer price index and in its sub-indices. Our aim is to analyze the effects of exchange rate changes on producer sub-indices. To do that we have used of the structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) methodology. Our data contains 1991 Q2-2017 Q1. The results show that there is a significant heterogeneity in exchange rate pass-through to producer prices. Our results showed that there is complete exchange rate pass through in industrial prices but agricultural and service prices show incomplete pass through. According to previous studies, the difference could be related to different market structure in industrial activities compared to agriculture and service activities.

The labor market, as one of the four markets, plays an important role in economic growth and development. So review developments in the labor market because of its close relationship with developments in other sectors is of great importance. This study tries to examine the dynamics of the labor market by adjusting for a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for the Iranian economy. After the model was solved, the obtained equations were linearized and their parameters were estimated using the economic data of Iran (2005-2017) by the Bayesian method. Comparing the model's moments with the economic momentum indicates the success of the model in real-world simulation (production, consumption, investment, unemployment, and participation rate). Impulse Response Functions Survey shows that participation rates are consistent with cyclic behavior. On the other hand, in response to shocks (monetary, oil revenues, government expenditures, and public sector employment), increased employment, but the unemployment rate has changed slightly due to the change in the participation rate and the change in the size of the active population, which represents the sustainability of the unemployment rate.