Journal of Quantitative Economics
Year:2019 | Volume:16 | Issue:2|Papers Count:6

In recent years, the issue of the environment has become more important than ever. This article seeks to extract the dynamic Kuznets environment curve. In this study, taking into account a closed economy, a part of capital used to produce goods that causes pollution and environmental degradation. The remaining capital used to reduce pollution. As a result of the studies, it found that the environmental curvature of Kuznets is outside of the stable and optimal conditions. It should noted that this model suggests that the economy should divide a part of its capital to prevent and reduce environmental degradation. Also, environmental degradation occurs at any stage, due to the fact that enough funds have not allocated to prevent and reduce environmental degradation in the past stages (optimal allocation has indicated in these conditions); thus To retrieve and improve the quality of the environment, an appropriate investment needed to save enough capital in the economy, by moving from undesirable investments to the optimal investment to improve the quality of the environment, on the curve, the level of pollution Decrease.

This paper by changing the trend of annual productivity growth computes the optimal monetary and fiscal policy for the Iranian economy in the context of Ramsey problem using a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model in an estimated medium-scale model The results indicate that in the presence of sticky prices. Zero inflation and close to zero, as a result of the optimal outcome and underprice flexibility. In addition, the negative tax rate on capital return introduced as a result of the optimal policy in this model. By increasing the productivity rate, as well as increasing knowledge and labor productivity, the level of production and supply increased and, as a result, did not increase even with increasing demand for total inflation. In fact, any policy that encourages the motivation of work and activity for the people of the community will lead to an increase in production and employment, and this increase in annual productivity will reduce inflation.

In many emerging and developing economies, sudden changes and volatilities in the exchange rate can be negatively affect economic growth by decline in investment, trade balance and profitability. Considering the fact that these economies are vulnerable to changes in capital inflows; remittances as one of the most important capital and financial inflows can lead to volatility and uncertainty in the exchange rate of developing countries and cause instability in the economy. Thus In this study, the mutual relationship between real exchange rate volatility and remittances volatility has been investigated and empirically analyzed by the use of Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) and three stage least square (3SLS) of simultaneous equations system approaches in the selected developing countries including Iran over the period 1980-2015. The results demonstrate that there is a relationship between the real exchange rate and remittances volatilities. In the meanwhile, the exchange rate volatility has a greater and significant effect on the volatility of remittances; while their reverse effect is small. In other words, the remittances volatility does not have a significant effect on the exchange rate volatility, which leads to economic stability. In addition, foreign direct investment, government spendings and trade openness cause volatilities in real exchange rates, and on the other side, inflation, financial development, household expenditure per capita and age dependency are the influential factors of remittances volatility in the studied countries.

The purpose of this study is to examine the business cycles, stocks and oil prices, and the synchronization between them. In this research, the regime of business cycles, oil prices and stock indexes in the form of two regimes of recession and boom were identified for the period 1372 to 1395(as seasonally adjusted). The results indicate that in the real sector of the economy, the length of a period of the boom is more than a recession, and the likelihood of a boom is equal to 0. 92 percent and more than a regime change or the stagnation of the recession. The period of rising of the stock index is more than the period of its recession. But the period of rising in oil prices is less than the period of its recession. The results of the coincidence of variables indicate that oil price is the leading in three seasons and coincident to GDP. Also, the stock index is leading in three seasons with GDP but in the opposite direction. The policy recommendation of this paper is that policymakers, having regard to the extent to which the real sector of the economy is closely aligned with the stock index and the price of oil, and being leading of the stock index and the price of oil in the real sector of the economy, by adopting appropriate policies, they can reduce the negative effects of fluctuations in the stock market and oil and add its positive effects.

In countries such as Iran that face chronic inflation, inflation hedging is an essential tool for the financial market. Banks, pension funds and life insurances need this tool to survive or improve their performance. Typically, types of assets such as gold, silver, land and housing are used to maintain the value of money against inflation. While formation of coin index, the virtual market of gold is available in Tehran stock exchange. This study tries to test the ability to hedging inflation by gold using the monthly data of the consumer price index and the price of gold coins from 2005 to June 2017. The results indicate that there is an asymmetric relationship between these two variables. When prices rise above the average inflation rate, gold price will grow more than inflation. But while CPI growth is lower than the average inflation rate, there is no significant relationship between inflation and gold price changes. According to estimated coefficient and bounds test, gold can be considered as a inflation hedger in Iran.

Recent crises indicate the failure of early warning models. The research considers this failure to identify the explanatory variables and the empirical design of the model, the factors that this research seeks to improve. In this research, it is attempted to determine the factors affecting the financial crisis in Iranian economy by defining uncertainty in crisis models and using a conventional approach to Bayesian average. In this study, 62 variables affecting the financial crisis were introduced into the model. Finally, using the Bayesian averaging model, 12 non-critical variables that affect the financial crisis, which include deficit or surplus, unofficial exchange rate deviation from the official, inflation rate, ratio External debt to foreign assets of the Central Bank; Increasing coefficient of money (liquidity/ monetary base); Export to GDP ratio; Import to GDP; Government expenditure to GDP ratio; Budget deficit to GDP; Liquidity ratio to foreign assets of Central Bank; Rate of credit growth granted to the private sector and inflation squeeze. Regarding the output of the results, it can be stated that the financial crisis index in Iran's economy is a multi-dimensional problem, as variables related to financial policy, monetary policy and foreign exchange policy affect this index.