Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental Hazards
Year:2019 | Volume:6 | Issue:1|Papers Count:10

Iran is a seismic prone country located over the Himalayan-Alpine seismic belt. Striking earthquakes during the past years and decades are strong proofs for vulnerability of rural areas in this country; loss of lives, damage to buildings, even demolishing villages have been experienced in Iran rural areas. All these fatal effects are evidences to make villages more resilience and strengthen their structures because in the case of vulnerable structures, earthquake can be tremendously destructive. Therefore, losses of live and property can be avoided through making resilience rural social, economic and physical structure like construction of buildings that sway rather than break under the stress of an earthquake. Making villages resilience are directly related to saving rural residents lives and their property. Briefly, reaching or maintaining rural areas capacities to an acceptable level are the main purpose of this study by analyzing mentioned structures. This study conducted in Marivan rural settlements which exposed to earthquake. According to Morgan Table, 310 samples responded to the questionnaires. The samples of this study were selected by chance from 6 districts and 18 villages. The main methods for analysis of collected data were Dimatel, ANP and Statictical analysis by SPSS. The results of ANP and Dimatel analyses led to the determination of relation among the factors. It should be noted we used Delfi method for this part. Moreover, for the final part ANOVA analysis is used by the authors. All around the world, countries have different approaches to deal with hazards in order to mitigate fatal affects. In fact, the goal of all management practices is to reduce hazard impacts. Iran faces a variety of hazards because of placing in a special geographical position; in this regard earthquake is the most important one. Resiliency approach can improve the flexibility of rural settlements through strengthen the capabilities of them and reduce their vulnerability. In the present study, analysis of rural settlements resilience against earthquake has been investigated. The results show that the resiliency is lower than the average in the studied villages. Also, there was a significant difference among the studied villages in terms of the resiliency against earthquake. The findings are consistent with the results of Nouri and Sepahvand in 2016 and Rezaei et al., in 2014. Considering the analysis of data and ANP analysis of the internal and external factors in a general and separate way, the studied villages of Marivan city can be considered as non-resilience structures; in this regard, the most important reason is the inappropriate condition in the internal factors of rural settlements. The poor quality of construction and the inadequate structure of buildings must be considered, as well. Another obvious reason is the existence of eroded texture in this area. According to external factors, relief does not cover rural areas and led to reduce the resilience of rural settlements. Investigating the resilience of rural settlements based on external factors not only indicates the inappropriate situation of rural structure in this analysis, but also it proves a more favorable situation than internal factors. The findings show that structure and the amount of structure confinement in decrease the tissue texture of rural settlements play a profound role; changing these factors requires a long time and long-term planning. Regarding the post hoc test, variance analysis suggests the highest resiliency in Zarivar with an average of 2. 99 and the lowest survival rate in KhavumirAbad rural district with an average of 1. 87. Moreover, according to the one-sample T-Test, the socio-cultural dimension with a mean of 3. 05 has the best situation in terms of resiliency against earthquake in the studied villages. For improving resiliency in the studied villages, authors’ suggests are including: managing and organizing preparation measures and response along with effective actions to reduce the risks of earthquake and providing a crisis management department; strengthen scientific and research studies to identify and reduce the risks; applying the rules to retrofit the buildings and increasing the safety factors in new construction; mapping the vulnerabilities in rural areas; increasing people participation and preparing them to deal with an emergency situation caused by an earthquake.

Atmospheric visibility is defined as the greatest distance at which an observer can see a black object viewed against the horizon sky, which is usually known as visual range. It shows the degree to which the atmosphere is transparent to visible light, therefore its impairment results from light scattering and absorption that can originate from natural or anthropogenic sources. Visibility is an important atmospheric parameter in landing and takeoff of an aircraft. Reduced visibility due to snow, rain, fog, and haze is an important consideration in the landing and takeoff of aircraft. Visibility and the related quantity Runway Visible Range (RVR) are meteorological parameters that are crucial for the operations at an airport. The Runway Visible Range is defined as the range over which the pilot of an aircraft on the centre line of a runway can see the runway surface marking or lights delineating the runway or identifying its centre line. A large number of aviation accidents are happened cause many passengers to die. Today, safety is very important in aviation. In fact, it is a competitive factor among aviation companies. Measuring the exact visual range is one of the most important factors in flight security. According to the international standards, whenever the visual range is less than a certain threshold for runways, take-off and landing will not be authorized, and pilots will be ordered land on an alternative airport that costs airlines a lot of expenses. One of the methods in determining the runway visual range is to use instruments such as transmisometer and forward scaterometer to measure the amount of scattering and absorption of light by the atmosphere. A transmissometer measures the extinction of light over an atmospheric path between an emitter and a receiver and it is directly related to the extinction. A forward scatter meter measures the amount of light scattered by a small measurement volume. RVR instruments usually locate at three places across each runway that is mandatory for operation in international airports. For the first time in Iran, data obtained from the RVR system from Imam Khomeini International Airport are applied in this study to examine the circumstances under which the runway visual range reached its minimum during two years 2013 and 2014. The high accuracy of these devices is a valuable factor for researchers to get more precise results. The data used include visibility range, temperature, dew point temperature, humidity, wind speed and wind direction, which are measured using the RVR system. The main part of this study concentrates on fast decreases of RVR, meaning a decrease of visibility to below 1500 m which takes more than 10 minutes. Therefore some cases of RVR data have been investigated in more detail utilizing one-minute observations are presented. For these cases, some meteorological parameters are investigated before and after this fast decrease of RVR occurred. These parameters as well as RVR are plot to find out what happened before and during each specific event. Results show that the critical low visibilities were mainly occurred in May and March and no cases of low visibility were seen between July to September. This can be due to the impact of more atmospheric systems and variable weather conditions in the relatively cold months. The highest visibilities were mostly occurred in July-September, due to the weakness of atmospheric systems and their less frequency of occurrences. Low visibility days were usually accompanied by dust, fog, mist and precipitation events. During 2013 and 2014, categorizing the weather events that may lead to the decrease of visibility to less than 1500 meter, shows that the 45 percent of the cases with the low visibilities caused by by dust, 35 percent by haze, 15 percent by fog and 5 percent caused by haze. For the critical cases, case studies show that the high relative humidity and the change of wind direction were also favored in the occurrence of low visual range. Case studies of the events suggest that these factors differ from one another based on how they are formed. After the fast decreases of RVR, the relative percentage of RVR events show an increasing in relative humidity especially during fog and precipitation.

Environmental hazards are inevitable phenomena that always place serious risks on the development of human societies, especially rural development. In the recent years, however, significant changes have been made in crisis management approaches, and the prevailing view has shifted from the "reduction of vulnerability" approach to "resilience improvement". Resilience is a new concept often used in the face of unknowns and uncertainties. Therefore, along with this change of attitude, it is important to examine and analyze natural hazards in terms of resilience. According to global statistics, floods, as one of the most devastating natural disasters, have caused the greatest losses and casualties to human settlements, which is true both in our country and in Golestan province. Investigations show that only in the statistical period of 1991-2014, 106 rainfall cases have led to the occurrence of floods in this province. These floods have damaged natural resources, the environment and the prevalence of environmental pollution; In addition, other natural and human factors have contributed to the heightened risk of flood damage. But if it was planned for the restoration of villages, then the damage could be reduced. Therefore, this research was conducted with the general purpose of determining the relationships between environmental factors and factors of rural communities of Gorganrud watershed on their resilience and numerical values. Finally, the residual spatial analysis of rural limited settlements was studied. Accordingly, the research questions are as follows: a) What is the relationship between environmental factors and factors in the villages of Gorganrud watershed in Golestan province with the resilience of the communities living in them in the face of flood? b) What are the resiliency values of these communities in the environmental dimension and which zones? This is an applied research with descriptive-analytical method. A library of researcher-made questionnaires was used for collecting data using library resources. The statistical population consisted of 106 villages with 22, 942 households. First, 31 villages were selected by cluster sampling. Then, using Cochran formula, 318 families were selected as sample size and selected by simple random sampling method. Also, for assessing the validity of the questionnaire, using Delphi collective wisdom methods, it was determined by using historical studies and opinions of experts in rural areas. The reliability of the questionnaires was also determined by using the Cronbach's alpha coefficient in the pre-test method. The value for the household questionnaire was ra1=0. 841 and ra2=0. 862, respectively. All steps for statistical analyzes have been performed by Excel and SPSS software. Additionally, the development of mapping, risk-taking, risk and resilience was also done with the help of ArcGIS software and the weight of each criterion was determined by the Super Decision tool; Then, using the weighted and linear overlapping methods, each of the sub-criteria of the main indexes was multiplied in its weights. The study area is divided into two distinct sections in terms of geological and geomorphological structure. The southern and eastern parts of it are the ripples of the eastern Alborz mountains, which are taller in the southern part and extend along the east-west direction. Also, the northern part of the studied basin is the Gorgan plain, in which the main branch of Gorganrud flows from east to west and all branches of the south and east are drained. Following the general slope of the main branch and its long-standing walls in the mid-east, it is usually not flooded; but as far as the west is concerned, its slope is very low and one of the flood plains is considered as the basin. The results of the research show that there is a significant relationship between the environmental factors of the studied basin villages and the resilience of the communities inhabited by them in the face of floods. Also, the average environmental resilience of the whole region was lower than the average (2. 76 average), rural households in the sub-basins of TilAbad and ChehelChai with an average of 3. 24 and 3 had relatively good environmental resilience, But most of the rural households in the sub-basins of Ghurechai and Lower of Gorganrud, Mohammad Abad-Zaringol, Madarsoo and Sarisoo, with an average of 2. 89 to 1. 85, had a poor environmental resilience. In addition, According to the flood risk resilience map, it can be said that of the total 31 sample villages studied, about 29 percent of sample villages have "medium upward" resilience in facing flood risks; conversely, most of these villages (71%) also have relatively low degree of resilience. Also, comparing the findings of this study with the results of most other researches, such as the studies of Olshansky and Kartes (1998) regarding the necessity of considering the environmental factors of settlements, observing the necessary environmental standards and the necessity of using proper land use management tools to reduce risk hazards and improve resilience, Center of Emergency Management Australia (2001) on the need to consider the state of the infrastructure, including the level of communications and accesses, biological conditions, including the status of pollution, as well as geographical characteristics, such as distances and proximity, climate, topography, as well as the general results of studies by Rafiean et al. (2012) in special selection of the most suitable model of resilience based on the combination of carter and socioeconomic model due to the simultaneous attention of this model to its geographical features and its comprehensiveness, as well as attention to the local communities' participation, Rezaei (2010), Shokri Firoozjah (2017) and Anabestani et al. (2017) Regarding the low value of the calculated population, the resiliency number of the society is consistent and consistent with the lack of attention to infrastructure issues, locations, etc., which is below the baseline (3). As a result, all of the aforementioned components of the resilience of inhabitants of sample societies have been affected by its environmental dimension, which is often due to insufficient attention and insufficient handling of them, which reduces resilience of rural residents to flood risks.

Qualitative evaluation and validation of atmospheric parameters such as precipitation and temperature are the most important condition for statistical analysis in climatic and hydrological researches. In addition, the meteorological and climatological data have a crucial role in transportation, agriculture, urbanization and health services. Therefore, it is clear that using wrong data source for atmospheric investigations is the first hazard in natural hazards analysis. This study aimed to investigate the homogenization of minimum and maximum temperatures and precipitation data for 36 weather stations over different climatic classes in Iran. The Standard Normal Homogeneity Test (SNHT), (Alexanderson and Moberg, 1997), Pettit test (Pettit, 1979), Cumulative Deviation test (Buishand, 1982) and Worsley’ s Likelihood Ratio test (Worsley, 1979) were carried out to study homogenization of minimum and maximum temperatures and precipitation data (1966-2015). The results revealed that 91. 5 % and 88. 5 % of minimum and maximum temperatures data, respectively, were in non-homogenized category. Although, Isfahan, Saghez and Gorgan for minimum temperature and Bandar-e Anzali, Sharekord, Kashan and Saghez for maximum temperature showed a homogenized condition with 5 % level of significance. The results showed most of the weather stations (28 out of 36 stations) had homogenized precipitation data. Even though, seven stations including Birjandd, Kerman, Kermanshah, Saghez, Sanandaj and Tabriz had homogenized precipitation data. The Urmia weather station was in doubtful class. That is precipitation data of Urmia weather station were homogenized by two tests results and were non-homogenized with other two tests of homogenization. The spatial distribution of trend variations of minimum temperature average was between-2. 8 to 2. 8 degree Celsius over the country. Moreover, maximum and minimum variations of minimum temperature occurred in northeast and northwest of the country, respectively. There were a significantly increasing trend (p<0. 01) in most of the regions. The results also indicated that the significant variations happened for maximum temperature in most of the weather stations, mainly in northern half of the country. The minimum temperature jump was mostly found in 1985, 1994 and 1998 years during the study period (1966-2015). The maximum variations of minimum temperature were in Mashhad, Shahroud, Ahvaz, Yazd and Semnan weather stations with 2. 8, 2. 3, 2. 2, 2 and 2 degrees Celsius, respectively, jump for above mentioned years during 1966-2015. In addition, the minimum change in minimum temperature was occurred in Birjand, Urmia and Bandar Abbas with a jump of 0. 6 degrees Celsius. It should be mentioned that, unlike other stations, the Khorramabad (Lorestan Province) and Fasa (Fars Province) had a decreasing trend for minimum temperature. It changed from 10. 3 to 8. 3 and from 11. 8 to 10. 2 degrees Celsius in Khorramabad and Fasa, respectively. The results showed that the commencement of maximum temperature jump for most of the weather stations happened in 1998 with 1. 1 degrees’ Celsius change. According to our study, a remarkable decrease in precipitation data was occurred in west and northwest of the country. There was a depletion of 80 to 150 millimeters from 1998 in Tabriz, Sanandaj, Saghez and Kermanshah weather stations during study period (1966-2015). Besides, 25 to 45 millimeters reduction in precipitation was found in south and southeast of the Country which has arid climate including Birjand (South Khorasan Province), Zabol (Sistan and Baluchestan Province) and Kerman. It was revealed that the variations of minimum temperature were larger than maximum temperature which was in agreement with results obtained by Rafati and Karimi, 2018. The results showed that the start of increasing maximum temperature in most of the weather stations was in 1998. It could be due to increasing the global temperature which is in accordance with results found by Steirou and Koutsoyiannis, 2012. The results revealed that about 80 % of precipitation data of weather stations were homogenized. These results were in agreement with results obtained by Hosseinzadeh Talaee et al., 2013. The results indicated that tests of homogenization for minimum and maximum temperatures and precipitation data could use in different climate over the country. Therefore, it could not allocate a single test to a particular climate type. In conclusion, it should be noted that before any analysis pertaining to environmental hazards, the calibration and maintenance of the weather instruments should be carried out periodically. In addition, the metadata and station history for relocation of the weather station should be checked. The relocation can create great changes in meteorological parameters due to elevation, latitude, longitude and land use/land cover differences between two sites.

Natural disasters are unpredictable and unavoidable and their occurrence in human settlements has led to catastrophes in many cases. Therefore, it is necessary to prepare prior the occurrence of these events. A prompt response can be a solution to this goal. As long as assurance is provided to the affected population that there is no lack of assistance and facilities, their ability to return to pre-disaster conditions and recovery will be increased. Selecting the right accommodation according to the needs of people after natural disasters, as well as planning to meet the needs of the victims, not only reduces risks and expedites recovery operations during reconstruction, but also strengthens the protection structures and advances the safety aspects of communities prior to any kind of incident. Increasing concerns arising from high occurrence of natural disasters, especially earthquakes, and witnessing the unpleasant consequences, will emphasize the need for proper habitation conditions and facility provision. Iran is a country that is prone to disasters. In fact, no country in the world is immune to natural disasters. In this research, urban areas of Shahrood located in Semnan Province, have been studied with regard to seismic potential and proximity to the southeastern part of Alborz Mountain and Shahrood’ s faults as a sample for selecting appropriate post-earthquake shelters. The overall purpose of this research is to propose a decision making process for efficient and safe spatial planning in the wake of crises. In the first step, the structural vulnerability of buildings in terms of foundation quality and their vulnerability measures is estimated at 24% of the city, which is equivalent to 12778 buildings prone to destruction, even facing a mild earthquake. After analyzing the possible damage to the city, according to the average household size of 3. 43 people in Shahrood, 43829 people are estimated to be homeless. The amount of space needed to accommodate these people, with an estimated per capita of 30-45 square meters per person, was estimated at 132 to 198 hectares, which could be used in a few distinct and scattered spaces. After determining the area needed for settlement, the criteria influencing the location of temporary shelters were identified based on scientific literature and analysis of previous experiences. According to these studies, the criteria for influencing this concept are classified into nine groups including access, location, cultural, economic, compatible and incompatible neighbors, infrastructure conditions, land quality as well as space area. The subsets of these nine criteria can be categorized into two groups: constraint factors and classification possibilities. Factors such as distances from faults, high voltage electric power lines, vulnerable zones, gas stations and chemical storage facilities are known to cause limitations. The concept of the facility in this research, in addition to proximity to residential areas, main roads and storage depots, includes access to compatible applications, medical centers, security centers, fire departments and outdoor spaces; hence it is necessary to accommodate people at the minimal distance from these facilities. Parameters such as area, surface water, infrastructures and available energy sources are some of the criteria that need to be measured in terms of their quality in proposed options and decisions are to be made on the basis of their existence and accuracy. Since each parameter has a different effect on the location of temporary accommodation therefore, the list of priorities is sorted accordingly. In this article, a methodology for locating shelter after an earthquake has been recommended by using hierarchical analysis, weighted linear combination and GIS. In this multi-criteria decision-making process, the weighting process was performed on each parameter by paired questionnaires that were provided to 40 experts, and analyzed according to the principle of hierarchy (AHP) and arranged in Expert Choice software. Then, all of the data layers in GIS software were combined with WLC method according to the criteria and standardization. The Geographic Information System (GIS) has been used as one of the most useful tools in allocation and land use planning. To analyze the data in the software, after converting the data into the Raster structure and classifying the layers in appropriate categories and in accordance with the functional radius, a conclusion was made in the Arc GIS environment. The output, obtained by overlapping the collected items, is a list of land plots suitable for post-disaster shelters, sorted according to the aforementioned priorities.

Throughout the human history, societies and rivers have been closely linked, so that the human civilization began from the riverside (Stevaux et al. 2009 (. The quantitative and qualitative characteristic of river is vulnerable to land-use changes (Kang et al. 2010). Natural and urban watersheds are influenced by the rapid land use change due to urban development (Furusho et al. 2013). Hence the importance of land use as an environmental variable have made its changes as a major issue in environmental changes and sustainable development) Verburg et al. 2009). The development of urbanization and industrialization of cities and communities have undesirable effects on the hydrological response of watersheds. It increases the magnitude of runoff and contamination, reduces the base flow and the groundwater recharge. Hence, urban authorities are urged to pay more attention to the environmental damaging effects of the urbanization process and the increase of construction. In this regard, attention should be paid to the effect of type of land cover and land use on urban runoff and hydrological changes in surface flow. Tehran as the largest metropolis in Iran has ascending trend of land cover and land use changes due to the growing population. In this research, the effect of urban development on the hydrological characteristics of the Tajrish sub-watershed (in Darband watershed) located north of Tehran has been investigated. Results of this study indicated that the river Darband is exposed to hydrological hazard due to human need for space and land use and land cover changes. The studied area is affected by decreasing pervious area, increase of runoff coefficient, and change in water quality parameters. Darband River watershed consists of two streams of Darband and Golabdareh which are considered as the major rivers of the Tehran-Karaj Basin. This river originates from the mountains of the Tochal located in northern Tehran. The catchment area of Darband River in the studied area is 39. 88 square kilometers. In this study, aerial photos of years 1345, 1358 and also and IkONOS images in year 2011 were used to detect the changes in land cover and land use in the Tajrish watershed. Pas-Ghale sub-watershed in upstream of Tajrish was selected as benchmark since its land use doesn't affected by human interventions. SCS-CN method developed by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) was used to estimate the quantitative changes in surface storage and runoff volume. Man-Kendall test was used for temporal trend detection of discharge and chemical parameters of surface water and also. The change of water type was identified annually using the Piper diagram in the aqQA software. Frequency analysis was carried out for peak discharge data using the weibull’ s empirical method. During three considered periods, the curve numbers (CN) and runoff coefficient (C) in Tajrish watershed significantly increased. Significant trend was also observed for the chemical parameters of surface flow in Tajrish. While the surface storage and initial abstraction ratio (λ ) indicate decreasing trend. Relationships of CN and λ with rainfall depth (P) were also computed for both studied watersheds. According to the Piper diagram, the distribution of ions in the cation diagrams at both Maghsudbeik and Pasghaleh stations is generally more directed toward sodium. In the triangles of anions, both of the stations studied tend to show more calcium biocarbon content. Presence of sodium ion in the surface water is due to igneous formations in the watershed. The surface water in Pasghale station, indicate a neutral type of water. Whereas, saline water type is detected in the Maghsudbeik station. The increase of urban utilization over the past three decades could be the main cause of changes in the hydro chemical characteristics and water type along the Darband River. Investigation of land use changes in the Darband watershed indicate that the impervious surface has increased during years of 1996 to 2011. Results also indicate that the CN and λ values in Pas-ghale watershed are more correlated to Pin compared with ones observed in Tajrish. The results also reveal that hydrological modeling in watersheds undergoes land use changes and urbanization will result in imprecision results. Many chemical parameters of the water quality of Darband River have been increasing at the Maghsudbeik station such as Chlorine, sulfate, sodium, electric conductivity and TDS and in the coming years, it can be considered inappropriate in terms of agriculture in the water class.

many physical of the procedures related to climate change are not perceived thoroughly. Scientific knowledge used to show those procedures completely, and to analyses forecasts is so complex, since most current studies about climate physical model have been done through semi experimental and random models and most of the current analysis techniques are still going through early stages. One of the important aspects of this study is modeling physical procedures of sea level rise geographical pattern, which is used practically for SLR threat evaluation of special geographical location, meaning Caspian basin. Since Caspian basin is a closed sea, it is heavily influenced by climate change and meanwhile is changing due to physical level and environmental change. It is necessary to define Caspian coast climate change possibility with specific focus on climatology and meteorology fine data, also to define the scale of sea level fluctuations for the sake of exact planning in different fields. This study aims at presenting a new dynamic method, via using an integrated model system named SIMCLIM, which can clarify SLR satellite changes well. According to scientific examination existing in this study, based on scatter scenario 4. 5 RCP and 8. 5 RCP for the following years, until 2100, temperature and precipitation change proposal have been presented. On one hand, Caspian coastal climate change analysis and estimation were based on climate patterns and water flows in the form of regional climate statistical model in order to simulate and forecast, on the other hand surveying chronological changes of Caspian sea coast slope with satellite height measurement was done to measure sea surface height fluctuations The present study has used SIMCLIM model for the first time in order to clarify Caspian sea level changes, elements, and effective climate reasons, all simultaneously in one project. The project base is according to coastal systems and procedures. Coast line shore change simulations are based in Bruun law. In future the frequency and intensity of extreme events temperature and precipitation will increase. Extreme events illustrate changes in extreme temperature and precipitation measures, in comparison with the base period of 1981-2010 which convey precipitation sum or the temperature beyond 95 percentile of base period. Temperature and precipitation coefficient of variation for the whole Caspian basin is positive and it varies from 25 to 88 percent. A disordered pattern is dominating south basin of the sea. Sea level changes, considering vertical earth movements, which is 2 mm in a year, resulted from subsidence of Caspian pit seabed have been obtained for both scenarios. In general, annual sea level average while ignoring seasonal changes, is increasing consistently and it was calculated 1. 22 cm each year according to high estimation procedure in scenario 8. 5 RCP and it was 0. 93 cm based on scenario 4. 5 RCP. Predicted results were compared with real results of base20-year period from 1995-2015. Base period results in three levels of sensitivity of low, mid, high shows 8. 4, 10. 1, and 11. 8 cm rise; after comparing them with model forecast results, meaningful coordination at the level of 95 percent was found out. In both scenarios, all over the Caspian shoreline water advance and destruction will exist. In the worst case scenario of 8. 5 RCP of 2030, current coast will decrease about 23 meters and in 2060 it will be about 53 and in 2100, there will be 117 meters advance towards land. Precipitation and temperature percent for 2030, 2060, 2100 will change increasingly. Spatial variability and annul coefficient of variation are various in different regions. North, western north, eastern north and east will include the least temperature fluctuations, and the highest percent of precipitation with the highest coefficient of variation all convey chronological period precipitation distribution with disordered accumulation and more local difference in this region in comparison with other regions. Then Caucasus mountainous region will have the highest increase in precipitation with a suitable scatteredness, during a year. The southern part of Caspian Sea will be with the highest increase in temperature and the least amount of increase in precipitation in percent. High coefficient of variation in this area illustrates abnormal and disordered pattern on the threshold of precipitation for both scenarios. fluctuations in sea level based on subsidence of Caspian pit seabed was calculated. In general, average annual sea level is increasing which will be 1. 22 cm, per year for scenario RCP 8. 5 and 0. 93 cm for scenario 4. 5. Due to incapability of world community in decreasing releasing greenhouse gases, it is expected scenario that 8. 5 RCP to come to reality. Caspian Sea shoreline is influenced by water advance and destruction. The difference between two scenarios in 2060 will be 3 meters and in 2100 will be 12 meters. Instinctually, such advances in coasts with less depth and less slope will be more. This study suggests that coastal changes are inevitable. However, this region inhabitant owns no systems or no systems have not yet developed to aid them be able to adopt with the climate changes.

Agricultural crops have damaged a lot due to the aftermath of late spring frost, and because low temperatures have damaging effects on agricultural production, it is essential to anticipate and prevent potential damages. Often, atmospheric temperature variations are very urgent due to the high temperature of the systems and the plants cannot adapt themselves with severe oscillations and, have been damaged. The aim of this study was to analyze the climate of the spring frost in Kermanshah, identifying the sea level equations and the late spring freezing frost of the period from 1990 to 2015. This survey has been done to determine the period of the freezing phenomenon, determine the minimum daily temperature of 7 stations placed in Kermanshah, Hamedan, and Ilam. After analyzing the data of spring frost freezing of Kermanshah province using the main component analysis technique and hierarchical clustering method, the most common 10 patterns of late spring coldness of the area were studied and determined. In 10 resulting cluster, 8 clusters were related to the high-pressure pattern of Siberia. From the total 91 days of spring frost freezing in Kermanshah province (79% (72 days)) is due to the high rainfall of Siberia, 12% (11 days) is due to the Mediterranean climate and 9% (8 days) is due to the Van lake climate. These pressure patterns were named according to the location of their deposition, which caused the loss of the environment and the freezing frost of the spring.

In recent years (2009-13), despite a reduction in the number of industrial workshops in the country as a whole, pollution and ecological damage to industries had more than doubled in the past; On the other hand, industries has been more conflict with the environment increasingly in Iran and has led to the growth of human environment hazards with increase of damage to natural environment. Also, from a regional point of view, wherever more industry is not more damage to environment by industry necessarily. Factors such as “ obsolete instruments in industry” , “ low level of technology” , “ insufficient skills and expertise of the activists in industry” and “ Inattention of managers and industrialists to environmental health” has been causes damage growing to environment. Space pattern suggests industrial sector risks accumulated within South West of Iran. As well as according to spatial changes trend, the risks are drawn towards central regions of the country. Among the provinces, Markazi province has been damage most to environment than any one million riyals added value of industry sector activities. As well as provinces such as Mazandaran, Bushehr, Fars, Isfahan, Ardebil and West Azarbaijan has been next ranks. Finally, it can be concluded that the environment health is not important for capital production from industrial sector of in the regions.

Developing urbanization and changing hydrological conditions of natural streams increases the flooding risk. This study tries to do flood hazard zoning in the Ilam city and determine the critical area of the urban regions against flooding by using AHP method and GIS environment. For this purpose, the parameters of the curve number, height, distance from the river, geology, land use, population, slope, soil, building density, worn texture buildings and accumulated flow as effective parameters in flooding hazard in Ilam city selected and of these parameters weighted by using Expert Choice software. The result of the Expert Choice software is transferred to the environment of GIS software and flood hazard map of study area prepared. Results of the study and flood hazard map show that areas with very low-risk, low risk, intermediate-risk, high-risk and very high-risk form the 0. 8%, 8. 5%, 49. 6%, 32. 54% and 8. 56% of the of Ilam city area, respectively. Also, the central area of the city has the highest risk and the probability of occurrence of the flood due to the high density of population and residential areas in this area and its proximity to the seasonal rivers and old part of the city. Therefore, by examining the results of Expert Choice software, it is possible to identify the most effective factors in the occurrence of flood risk and prioritize them to address management solutions to eliminate or mitigate the effects of these factors.