پژوهشنامه بیمه (صنعت بیمه)
سال:1398 | دوره:34 | شماره:4 |تعداد مقالات:11

Objective: Risk classification of insurance customers, based on the observable characteristics, can significantly help insurers mitigate losses, classify their customers and prevent adverse selection. This paper aims to study losses occurred in motor Third Party Liability (TPL) insurance and predict customers’ risk of loss. Methodology: With the help of four supervised algorithms namely; decision tree, SVM, naï ve Bayes and neural network hidden pattern of data is discovered to classify customers of TPL insurance. Furthermore, the imbalanced dataset was the main challenge for implementing machine learning and data mining techniques which will be discussed throughout the article. Findings: The dataset contains more than 400, 000 observations for five years from an Iranian insurance company. It also has five variables of which four are independent: car type, car group, plate type, car age; and one binary dependent variable: financial loss. Comparing the model performances, decision tree is the most efficient (F1=0. 72± 1). Conclusions: The model provides prioritization of independent features as follows: car type, plate type, car age, car group. Findings also suggest that to obtain more accurate prediction on claims and high-risk customers, more features concerning drivers’ traits are required.

Objective: Understanding the dimensions of strategic market orientation is crucial in industries where competition is high and customers have different and diverse needs and wants. Acquiring market information and responding accordingly is the philosophy of market orientation. The main purpose of this study is to conceptualize strategic market orientation and its relationship with performance in the Iranian insurance industry. Methodology: The study population of this descriptive survey is 16681 managers of public and private insurance agencies in the provinces of Tehran, Khorasan-e-Razavi, Isfahan, Fars, Azerbaijan-e-sharghi and Khuzestan. Three hundred agencies using the stratified random sampling method participated in this survey and completed the questionnaires. The validity of the questionnaire was confirmed through content and construct validity tests and its reliability was confirmed through Cronbach's alpha coefficient. Collected data was analyzed through structural equation modeling using AMOS18 to test hypotheses of research. Findings: Strategic market orientation has positive impact on financial and non-financial performance of insurance companies. The mediating role of non-financial performance between strategic market orientation and financial performance was also confirmed. Conclusion: Gathering and analyzing customer and competitor information and then designing a market-oriented strategy tailored to meet environmental opportunities and threats and providing process, system, and behavioral infrastructure to implement this strategy improve financial and non-financial indicators in the Iranian insurance industry.

May 2 Abstract Objective: Since surviving on obligations to insurers and maximizing the benefits of the company is one of the most important goals of insurance companies, and on the one hand, the regulatory agencies of each country are trying to enact specific laws and regulations and managers by adopting precautionary measures and modern technical and financial strategies. The purpose of this study was to present an intelligent model for predicting financial empowerment in insurance companies as a decision support system. Methodology: In order to present a model of predicting the financial health of insurance companies by examining the background of 17 variables as predictor variables for predicting the class of financial wealth, extracted from reliable sources of central insurance site of the Islamic Republic of Iran during 2013-2017. In this study, first, the results of applying different prediction models based on artificial intelligence including: decision tree, neural network, nibbles were compared. Then, the ranking of predictive algorithms was evaluated. Findings: The results of this study showed that the decision tree with 99% accuracy has the best performance in predicting financial ability, considering that the decision tree is a nonlinear cognition and mapping models and patterns of turbulence between goal and decision variables. Conclusion: The accuracy of the decision tree model in predicting financial robustness is high and the model extracted using decision tree has high accuracy and capability in estimation.

Objective: Natural disasters have destructive effects on the countries’ physical and human capitals. Hence, it is necessary to use risk management techniques. The purpose of this study is to analysis the impact of earthquake insurance on reducing the earthquake destructive effects on economic growth through financing the destruction and forcing the insureds to reduce risk. Therefore, the effects of possible earthquakes in the Ray fault or Tehran north fault on Iran economic growth for 40 years is simulated. The year 2012 was assumed as the beginning and the possible earthquake occurrence was predicted in the eighth year (2020). Then, the effects of using insurance techniques for risk management on reducing the damaging effects of earthquakes on economic growth have been analyzed. Method: The effects of probable earthquake in Tehran on Iran economic growth is simulated by system dynamics method. This method provides the possibility of comprehensive analysis of the insurance earthquake effect on the reduction of the destructive earthquake impacts on national capital, and identifies the earthquake impact channels on economic growth by dynamically examining causal relationships, and Iran economic growth changes by earthquake predicts in the long run. Finding: The findings show that in the event of an earthquake in the Rey fault, the physical capitals of 2400100 billion rails, 647800 humans and 203480 billion gross domestic product will decrease by 2051. Therefore, earthquake risk management is necessary to reduce these effects. If there is no earthquake insurance, only part of the damages will be compensated by the government and international organizations. Thus, the government's development budget will be spent on post-earthquake reconstruction and it will hit the country's economy. However, if there is earthquake insurance fund, most of the losses will offset by the funds received from the insureds and foreign reinsurers will required to pay damages. Another advantage of using earthquake insurance is to create conditions to reduce the damages scope by the insureds. Results suggest that insurer required to comply with the insured with the country's seismic regulations by applying incentive and risk-based pricing policies. Therefore, buildings collapse risk and amount of earthquake damage will be reduced. Conclusion: The speed of reconstruction and compensation will increase in case of application of insurance technique in earthquake risk management. Therefore, a general earthquake insurance fund should be created. Observing the risk dispersion principle is important for the insurers. The fund covers part of its funds with foreign reinsurance. Part of potential losses incurred in Iran will be compensated through foreign insurers, capital will be rebuilt and the country's economic growth will be improved. The results recommend that the fund considers buildings collapse risk and the country's seismic regulations compliance to determine the amount of premium. Thus, the devastating effects of the earthquake on physical assets will be decreased by 525, 600 billion Rials and economic growth will be improved by 62100 billion Rials by creating a public earthquake insurance fund and obliging the insured to observe the Iran seismic regulations.

Objective: This paper examines the effect of risk culture on the performance of risk management in insurance companies providing complementary health insurance, in terms of neoclassical economics and enterprise risk management. Methodology: The Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was used in this study. Findings: The principles of risk management as well as four cultures-based theory of multiple rationality were presented and the principles of neoclassical economics and enterprise risk management were analyzed for insurance companies offering complementary health insurance. The principles of "enterprise risk management" with weight of 62. 1% has gained the highest rank compared to "neoclassical economics" with weight of 37. 9% in relation to overall goal. Also, "risk appetite" and "separate measurement and management of risk" criteria in selection of enterprise risk management gained the highest weight compared to other criteria. Conclusion: The principles of risk culture is best compatible with the principles of enterprise risk management, but this does not mean that the principles of enterprise risk management and the neoclassical economy cannot be used simultaneously in a company. Generally, the insurance companies choose a combination of these principles. In other words, insurance companies select a combination of four approaches based on the theory of multiple rationality. Also, considering that the attitude of Central Insurance Organization of Islamic Republic of Iran to the risk strategy has the impact on the risk culture of insurance companies, it is recommended that Central Insurance Organization adopts an optimal attitude according to the conditions and necessities of the insurance industry.