ECONOMIC RESEARCH REVIEW
Year:2005 | Volume:4 | Issue:4|Papers Count:10

A Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model based on the Social AccountingMatrix of Iran has been used to simulate the effect of changes in tariffrate on the Iran economy. The main idea was to investigate the impact of joining World Trade Organization (WTO). The result of the model shows that although reduction on tariff might adversely affects some sectors of economy,but its overall effect is positive. Import, export and employment wouldall increase. The result of simulation confirms that the Iran economy is notverysensitive to changes in tariff rate.

For studying and executing reform policy on prices, subsidies, taxes and ... we need to be aware of consumption behavior of households. Consumption behavior and demand for food are different among income groups, so for any evaluation of exact effects of reform policy it is necessary to classify households. This article has been offered a method for classifying of Iranian urban households on economic/social characteristics, with regarding to differences of consumption behavior, based on Jensen &Manrique methodology (1998), This proposed method has been applied for classifying of Iranian urban households. The conclusion of study shows that Iranian urban households are classified to five independent groups,

In order to achieve the economic and equilibrium targets, it is important to pay attention to the importance of government expenditures in national income. Hence the present paper surveys the problems of planing and the impact of economic shocks reduction. Inaddition to that for the purpose of presenting a basis model and practical aspect of the effect of government expenditures analysis, theoretical problems have been taken into consideration, too. Besides, with the help of macro and technical models emphasis has been given to the need of a suitable macroeconomic model on the basis of mico-economics. As a result, it can be said that this paper analyses the problems on the basis of tha trade cycle models.

Investigating the effects of fiscal policy on macroeconomic variables is a valuable issue. Each of the macroeconomic schools predicts fiscal policy effects based on their special assumption, differently. In this paper, effects of government expenditures and taxes on consumption and employment has been investigated by using time series techniques [Vector Autoregressive Model], in addition we have used the time series data of the variables between 1350-1381. After estimating the Model, we have found that there is a long-run relationship between fiscal policy variables and employment and consumption. This relationship has been approved by using johansen cointegration test. Also dynamic effects of fiscal policies shock in short and medium-run has been found by using impulse response functions analysis and also short-run parameters have been estimated based on vector error correction model. The results show that because of positive shock of government expenditures, consumption and employment increase, but negative shock of taxes (tax increasing) cause consumption to decrease and employment does not show a significant reaction against this shock.

In this Survey we are looking for findinding the status of fundemental metal industries and the related mines in the economy of the country and for we want to forecast its evolution in the 4th 5 years plan of economic, social and cultural development (2005-2009). In the 4th development plan parallel to the forecasting of fast economic and industrial growth for the country, it is expected that the price of energy and mineals used by fundemental metal industries is getting closer to the prices of the border. The result of this has been evaluated. For this purpose, at first the table of 20 sectors of input-output of the year 2001 has been estimated by adjusted RAS approach, then by mentioning the related information of fundemental metal industries and the related industries another table of 27 sectors has been prepared. Then this table has been used for forecasting the setorial production, assessing the result of energy and raw materials price increament on the products of fundemental metals and finally assessing the effects of product price increament, of this sector, on another economic sectors.

According to endogeneous growth models, variables such as investment or R&Dexpenditures can permanently influence economic growth. However, depending on the economy under study ,this hypothess can be rejected. To this end, the effects of R&Dexpenditures and Investment on the growth rate is examined for the Iran economy. The proxy for R&Dexpenditure is government research budget. First, The stationary of the variables is evaluated. Then, by a single-equation dynamic model, the permanent effects of R&D expenditures and also, capital growth rate on econimic growth rate is examined and finally the magnitude,timing and persistence of the shocks are estimated by a VAR model.

Economic facts and figures show that Iran, as a developing country, has not succeeded desirable saving and investment ratios, comparable to the international levels. Indeed, factors such as income level and income distribution, age structure of the population, political and economic risks and finally frequent changes in rules, regulations and policy decisions have created impediments and insecure environment for investors. Consequently, the investors prefer to invest in physical assets rather than financial instruments like stocks. Furthermore, the more active role and large share of the banking market against capital market in the Iran economy, higher risks of investment in Tehran Stock Exchange than investment in real estate and construction sectors, lower yields of investment in the capital market and finally the lack of an efficient primary capital market, are all the factors responsible for non - formation of adequate amount of savings and pertinent low ratios. In this article, we study the importance and effectiveness of capital market evaluation measures such as, liquidating nature of this market and its role in the economic growth of Iran, through examining the relation between capital market development and economic growth within a regression model and explanation of the capital market development-economic growth puzzle under the Granger cause and effect relationship.