Iranian Journal of Trade Studies
Year:2005 | Volume:9 | Issue:34|Papers Count:10

Changes in the structure of the world economy have deeply linked countries to each other in recent decades. Due to a high rate of international transactions and mutual activites amongst countries, the country borders have lost their effectiveness. In fact, countries are motivated to cooperate with each other for obtaining more and more benefits. Economic cooperation raises trade and scale economies, transfers technology and thus increases growth and welfare. Recent studies show that in new discipline of the world economy, in addition to domestic conditions of a country, its movement is also affected by other countries. According to the economic literature, any relationship between economic growth rate and the primary income is somehow considered as a theme of economic convergence. It is possible to consider contiguous spillover effects through using spatial econometric techniques. Therefore, this paper examines economic convergence on Islamic countries by focusing on the Persian Gulf countries and for this purpose uses spatial econometrics. Results indicate that there is a positive spatial dependence among the growth rate of considered Islamic countries. Thus, these countries can benefit from spillover effects of the neighbors, and it is possible to create a positive growth loop in the region.

In this research, combined forecasting is considered for managers forecasting. This model is a new approach that has been used in the past two decades and indicates considerable error reduction in forecasted results. In this study, at first, forecasting was done with some different methods that are named individual methods here. These models consist of exponential smoothing methods, trend analysis, Box-Jenkins, causal analysis and neural network model. Results of these individual forecasting methods (some selected model) are combined and compared with artificial neural network and multiple regression models. The data consists of OPEC oil demand from 1960 to 2002 as dependent variable and price, GDP, other energy demand, population, value added of industry as independent variables. Computed MSE, MAPE, indexes show considerable reduction in errors of mixed forecasting method. Finally, an expert system model is selected as preferred method, a model that has minimum error.

In many of econometric models, the coefficient of the intercept term appears insignificant. Based on a system approach to the modelling of economic systems, this paper discusses what actually the term of intercept stands for, and which role it can play truely. It is shown that according to the system dynamics, mostly the term could not have any meaning, and therefore, can not be logically included in the model. A few locations that it may be estimated significantly are listed. These include: data for the operating point of a short-run linearised model (equilibrium), a missed input signal (exogenous variable), or a bias term in the model error (uncertainty). The discussion is fulfilled by representing a real model for aggregate consumption in Iran.

Transport Sector and Services Allied to Transport have a considerable share in output and employment of the Iranian economy. About 6% of employed population and 7.86% of total output belong to these activities. These show the direct role of the sectors in the economy. Furthermore, calculated induced effects depict that the importance of the sectors, among others, is remarkable. The aim of the article, through calculation of several backward and forward indices, is ordering of the sectors situation in an 18 division input output model. Our results show that mining activities are highly dependent on the transport sector and on the other side the sectors have strong backward linkages to industrial manufacturing. According to dispersion and sensitivity indices transport divisions are ranked respectively in 11th and 3rd in 18 activities of the economy.

The energy subsidy has a remarkable share of GDP (about 10 percent) in Iranian economy, Therefore, any adjustment or its removal will have inflationary consequences. This paper employs social accounting matrix to quantify that. This method also enables us to quantify the impact on household expenditures. Our calculations show that the inflation resulting from adjusting the price of energy to international level amounts to 35.6 percent. Yet, due to financial limitations on one hand and the increasing amount of subsidy on the other, the government must prepare a complete and improved program.

One of the challenging subjects in Islamic economics is the-question of whether it is necessary to compensate for the diminishing value of money in economic exchanges including loans. In the present paper I will offer 11 reasons as to why it is necessary to compensate for the diminishing value of money. According to findings of this paper, compensating the diminishing value of money must not be considered as Riba. Accepting such a statement will open the doors for economic exchange and contribute to a fluent economic exchange system. The least result of such a thing will be the distribution of income and wealth. This is why a lack of such a system will endanger the prevalence of the Islamic equity and equality

One of the important stages of planning process is "Evaluation of projects and programs". This process optimizes decision making and supports the possibility and practicality of projects. Evaluation can be regarded as an important factor in effectiveness of development plans, improving its weaknesses and increasing its monitoring. In recent decades, rural development programs have been facing major challenges in the areas of generating income and employment, public participation, increasing output and productivity, poverty reduction, rural empowerment and reducing urban and rural inequalities. In I.R. Iran both GO"s and NGO"s have an important role in rural development. The role of credit institutions in this ,area is also very important. Banks, cooperatives, non-usury funds, informal resources, ... play a direct role in rural development. The question is whether the development credit of Agricultural Bank has led to rural development. This paper, using descriptive and analytical methods and panel technique, tries to address this question. The results indicate that this Bank"s rural credit have played a significant role in employment generation and economic development in rural areas.

Using the framework of an endogenous growth model, this paper empirically analyses the relationship between trade policies and industrial growth in Iran during the period 1959-200t The co integration and error correction modelling approaches have been applied. The empirical results suggest that there exists a unique long-run relationship among the aggregate growth function of industrial value added and its major determinants i.e real capital stock, the labor force, real exports, the import tariff collection rate and the human capital. The short-term dynamic behaviour of Iran"s growth function of industrial value added has been investigated by estimation of an error correction model in which the error correction term has been found to be correctly signed and statistically significant.