JOURNAL OF SUSTAINABLE GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT (THE ECONOMIC RESEARCH)
Year:2008 | Volume:8 | Issue:3|Papers Count:10

The goal of this paper is to analyze the effects of budget deficits on private consumption and investment in Iran during the period 1342 to 1384. Budget deficits and the ways of financing have .significant effects on the economy.Budget deficits can have an effect on the two major components of the aggregate demand, private consumption and private investment. The total effects of the budget deficits can be decomposed into the primary and secondary effects. The primary) effects of the deficits are attributed to the causes of the deficits while the secondary effects are related to the ways of deficit financing. Theoretically, the sign of the total effects might be positive, negative or zero.This paper applies the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to co-integration analysis in estimating the long run relationship between variables. The results indicate that although the effect of budget deficits on private consumption is positive but there is no long run and robust relationship between the variables. Moreover, the findings show that there is a long run relationship between budget deficits and private investment.Moreover, budget deficits have a negative effect on private investment.

The quantity theory of money is a theory emphasizing that there is a one to- one long run relationship between money growth and inflation. This means a higher rate of money growth leads to a higher rate of inflation. However, during the recent years, the stylized facts of the Iranian economy show that there is a divergence between the growth of money and the rate of inflation. This stylized facts lead to the opinion that an interruption has occurred between the growth of money and inflation rate.The main objective of the paper is to investigate the relationship between the growth of money and inflation rate using the annual data over the period 1350-2005. The empirical model used to examine the relation between the growth of money and inflation is a model that stemmed from the quantity theory of money and is developed to incorporate expectations based on the Phillips curve.The results confirm that there is a stable relationship between the growth of money and inflation rate in the long run. More specifically, one percent increase in the growth of money will increase inflation by 0.89 percentage point in the long run.

This paper has two objectives: the first one is to find out if the use of different technical trading rules (TTR) provides higher returns than the simple trading rules (STR); the second one is to observe whether the technical trading rules have a more predictive power of stock prices patterns. Several papers have recently presented evidence that some simple trading rules are useful for predicting stock market returns in newly established stock markets such as stock markets in Malaysia, Taiwan, and Thailand while it appears that they no longer work well in the developed countries stock markets such as stock markets in Japan and Hong Kong. Some economists consider the inefficiency of some markets as an opportunity to employ the technical approach to increase profit.This paper examines the level of profitability of trading using the moving averages rules at the Tehran Stock Market. The findings show that using variable length moving average (VLMA) rules yield large positive profits compared to the simple trading rules. However, the profitability rates are different given different time length. Moreover, it is observed that the short run moving averages produce better results than the long run moving averages.

There is extensive debate about the impact of exchange rate volatility on international trade. The exported goods of developing countries such as Iran are limited to a single or a set of agricultural products. Iran is the largest pistachio producer in the world and 60 percent of the world's pistachio is produced in Iran. Therefore, this paper investigates the impact of exchange rate volatility on the agricultural crops exports of Iran.Exports supply function of two agricultural crops, pistachio and date, is first specified and then the Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) econometrics technique is employed to examine the impact of exchange rate volatility on Iran's exports to selected countries. Exports supply function of pistachio to German, United Kingdom and Italy and exports supply function of date to German, United Kingdom and Turkey are estimated. The results show that exchange rate volatility has significant effects on the exports of those crops to the countries.

Income tax does have allocative and distributive roles in economy. So, one of the key roles of income tax is distributive. The major principle of this type of tax is "justice principle". This paper uses a modified version of the Engel, Galetovic and Raddatz model to examine the effects of salary tax on the Income distribution in Iran.The findings of the paper confirm that the optimal tax rates in Iran are 25.18, 28.28, 12.5, 12.5, 12.5 percent, respectively, over the period of the third five-year development plan. Comparing the actual tax rates with the optimal ones, it is observed that there exists a significant gap between potential and actual tax rates in the country.

Competition is a dynamic process. It involves the emergence of new firms, their growth, their eventual decay and ultimately the death of those who do not innovate and reinvent themselves. Plant deaths arise from failure when firms exit an industry. The pervasiveness of this phenomenon has caught the attention of economists to study the causes of the death of industrial units.The objective of this paper is first to identify theoretically the determinants of firm's closure. Based on a review of the literature, the major factors affecting the firm's closure comprise location, size, and industrial group and then this paper examine empirically the specified model using the data of Yazd province over the third five-year development plan. The data used in this study is collected from the Yazd Mining and Industry Department database. These include 1539 manufacturing firms while 175 plants died during the period of the third five-year development plan.The multivariate probit regression analysis is used to estimate the model. The results show that firm location and firm size doesn't have significant effects on firm's closure probability. Moreover, the findings confirm that the closure probability of older firms is less than the younger counterparts.

This paper investigates the quantitative Effects of the ECO Trade agreement (ECOTA) on trade development of Iran using the ECO countries data. To this end, the amount of tariff reductions affecting Iran's trade (exports and imports) within region is calculated and analyzed.The results indicate that the agreement has contributed to an expansion in Iran's Exports in the ECOTA framework. The implementation of tariff reductions will increase Iran's exports to only Pakistan about 1.27 million of U.S. dollar in 2008 relative to its tariff in the base year (2003), while ECO members' imports from Iran win not be substituted by imports from other regions. However, the implementation of tariff reductions in the ECOTA framework will also increase iran's imports from ECO countries 8.99 millions of U.S. dollar. Since Iran's imports substitution price elasticity from the ECO countries is near to zero, despite of discriminatory tariff reductions, Iran will not substitute its imports originating from ECO by importing from other countries. Indeed, an 18.2percent tariff reductions will increase total imports of lran from ECO countries 1.6 percent.

Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is a mathematical programming approach to assessing relative efficiencies. DEA method has been proved very effective in evaluating and decision-making. One of the keys to DEA approach is the search and process of data for inputs and outputs. Because the data for some DEA models are all definite and known, the models mentioned as above are all certain. However, there exist a lot of uncertainties in decision problem. Therefore, the previous DEA models are not applicable for the problem under uncertainty which.is a typical Feature of agricultural activities including animal husbandry industry.In this paper we have employed an interval DEA models for dealing with imprecise data. Interval data envelopment analysis method (IDEA) is a useful approach to evaluate the efficiency of activities using inexact data to consider risk and uncertainty. More specifically, this paper evaluates the efficiency of animal husbandry industry using provinces data of Iran over the period 2000 - 2004.The results show that in the milk industry, Ardebil and Booshehr provinces are respectively ranked to be the first and the last efficient provinces while in the beef industry, Khozestan, and Chahar Mahal and Bakhtiyari provinces are respectively ranked to be the first and the last efficient provinces.