Evaluation of Earth Dam Overtopping Risk by System Dynamics, Monte-Carlo Simulation and Latin Hypercube Sampling Methods (Case Study: Hajilarchay Dam, Iran)

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EBRAHIMZADEH A.; ZARGHAMI M.; NOURANI V.

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Journal: IRAN-WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH Year:2019 | Volume:15 | Issue:1 Page(s): 14-31

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Title

Evaluation of Earth Dam Overtopping Risk by System Dynamics, Monte-Carlo Simulation and Latin Hypercube Sampling Methods (Case Study: Hajilarchay Dam, Iran)

Author(s)

EBRAHIMZADEH A. | ZARGHAMI M. | NOURANI V. | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

Overtopping RiskQ1

System DynamicsQ1

UncertaintyQ2

Monte-Carlo SimulationQ1

Latin Hypercube SamplingQ1

Abstract

Risk assessment of structures, especially dams, has recently been one of the main topics considered by researchers. Risk analysis makes it possible to estimate uncertainties coming up from randomness of parameters in the models which are applicable in designing process. In this paper, different uncertainties along with flood and wind with various return periods segregated and simultaneously were exploited to mitigate the Overtopping Risk of Hajilarchay earth dam. To assess the risk in the proposed model, we used Monte-Carlo Simulation (MCS) and Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) method with different iterations through System Dynamics approach. The results proved the effectiveness of System Dynamics approach in assessing the Overtopping Risk for earth dams which showed the influences of different parameters besides flood and wind on Overtopping Risk. Furthermore, the results showed that opening the bottom outlet of Hajilarchay Dam may reduce the average Overtopping Risk as much as 9. 20 and 4. 10 percent when incorporating the effects of just flood and flood and wind, respectively. In addition results showed that the average Overtopping Risk owing to just flood and to flood and wind estimated from MCS method were respectively about 4. 30 and 3. 50 percent more than corresponding results obtained by the LHS method. Also the reliability index obtained by the MCS method was higher than LHS method and MCS method has less calculation time compared to the LHS. Finally, we could conclude that System Dynamics approach along with MCS is a very effective tool to estimate the Overtopping Risk in earth dams.

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APA: Copy

EBRAHIMZADEH, A., ZARGHAMI, M., & NOURANI, V.. (2019). Evaluation of Earth Dam Overtopping Risk by System Dynamics, Monte-Carlo Simulation and Latin Hypercube Sampling Methods (Case Study: Hajilarchay Dam, Iran). IRAN-WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, 15(1 ), 14-31. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/100054/en

Vancouver: Copy

EBRAHIMZADEH A., ZARGHAMI M., NOURANI V.. Evaluation of Earth Dam Overtopping Risk by System Dynamics, Monte-Carlo Simulation and Latin Hypercube Sampling Methods (Case Study: Hajilarchay Dam, Iran). IRAN-WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH[Internet]. 2019;15(1 ):14-31. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/100054/en

IEEE: Copy

A. EBRAHIMZADEH, M. ZARGHAMI, and V. NOURANI, “Evaluation of Earth Dam Overtopping Risk by System Dynamics, Monte-Carlo Simulation and Latin Hypercube Sampling Methods (Case Study: Hajilarchay Dam, Iran),” IRAN-WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, vol. 15, no. 1 , pp. 14–31, 2019, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/100054/en

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