EVALUATION OF DROUGHT IN WESTERN SYNOPTIC STATIONS USING HERBST AND NEURO-FUZZY METHOD (TECHNICAL NOTE)

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BYZEDI M.

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Journal: IRAN-WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH Year:2018 | Volume:14 | Issue:1 Page(s): 278-284

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Title

EVALUATION OF DROUGHT IN WESTERN SYNOPTIC STATIONS USING HERBST AND NEURO-FUZZY METHOD (TECHNICAL NOTE)

Author(s)

BYZEDI M. | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

DROUGHT INDEXQ1

MEAN MONTHLY DEFICIT IN PRECIPITATION (MMD)Q1

ANFIS MODELQ1

DROUGHT SEVERITYQ1

DURATION OF DROUGHTQ1

Abstract

Low rainfall and subsequent periods with low flow has profound effects on water resource management. In addition, growing water demand would raise critical conditions in periods of severe droughts. Drought management and water use restrictions in one location is a direct function of DROUGHT SEVERITY. In this paper, we evaluated the duration, severity and index of drought using Herbest method and monthly rainfall deficit forecast values with ANFIS MODEL for 27 stations in the west provinces of Iran in a 30-year period (1985-2014). Drought monitoring results showed that the synoptic stations of Sarab and Kermanshah had the highest and lowest number of dry months; 260 and 122 months, respectively. The maximum relative intensity of drought (Y; dimensionless) were calculated in Maragheh and Jolfa stations as 3.47 and 2.5, respectively. The highest and lowest values of DROUGHT INDEX (I) were reached in Takab, Sarab, Saghez and Sar Pol Zahab stations and in stations and Lorestan and Ardabil provinces. The model did not show better performance, except in Kermanshah, Mianeh and Piranshahr stations, in projecting mean monthly rainfall deficits (MMD) using ANFIS MODEL based on the criteria Nash, coefficient of determination, and the error rate.

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APA: Copy

BYZEDI, M.. (2018). EVALUATION OF DROUGHT IN WESTERN SYNOPTIC STATIONS USING HERBST AND NEURO-FUZZY METHOD (TECHNICAL NOTE). IRAN-WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, 14(1 ), 278-284. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/100314/en

Vancouver: Copy

BYZEDI M.. EVALUATION OF DROUGHT IN WESTERN SYNOPTIC STATIONS USING HERBST AND NEURO-FUZZY METHOD (TECHNICAL NOTE). IRAN-WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH[Internet]. 2018;14(1 ):278-284. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/100314/en

IEEE: Copy

M. BYZEDI, “EVALUATION OF DROUGHT IN WESTERN SYNOPTIC STATIONS USING HERBST AND NEURO-FUZZY METHOD (TECHNICAL NOTE),” IRAN-WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, vol. 14, no. 1 , pp. 278–284, 2018, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/100314/en

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