Analysis of Temperature Fluctuations in the South West of Iran Based on the Atmospheric General Circulation Model and Neural Network Model (Case Study: Plain and Foothill Stations)

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Shiravand H.; DOSTKAMIYAN M.

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Journal: IRAN-WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH Year:2019 | Volume:15 | Issue:3 Page(s): 206-217

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Title

Analysis of Temperature Fluctuations in the South West of Iran Based on the Atmospheric General Circulation Model and Neural Network Model (Case Study: Plain and Foothill Stations)

Author(s)

Shiravand H. | DOSTKAMIYAN M. | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

Atmospheric General Circulation ModelsQ1

Neural NetworksQ3

TemperatureQ2

FluctuationQ1

AlexanderssonQ1

Plain and Foothill StationsQ1

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to analyze the cycles and mutations of average Temperature in south east of Iran based on Neural Networks and general atmospheric circulation models under climate change scenarios. The data used in this study consisted of the average daily Temperature recorded in synoptic stations in Ahwaz, Abadan, Dezful, Khoramabad, Sharekurd and Hamadan, NCEP Reanalysis data and output data of the third edition of the HadCM3 global climate model under the A2 and B2 scenarios for the base period (1991-1961 AD). Except for the prediction of other steps including data calibration, the assessment and validation was done in MATLAB and the maps were produced through Surfer. The Temperature estimated based on the output of general circulation models in scenarios A2a and B2a of HadCM3 showes an increase of up to 1. 5 ° C in most areas by the year 2099. The results of the analysis of the Temperature cycles showed that based on the output of Neural Networks and models of general circulation in the scenarios A2a and B2a the Temperature has short cycles of 2 to 4 years. The results of the Alexandersson test showed that the average Temperature on the South West of Iran indicated a meaningful mutation from 2050 onwards.

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APA: Copy

Shiravand, H., & DOSTKAMIYAN, M.. (2019). Analysis of Temperature Fluctuations in the South West of Iran Based on the Atmospheric General Circulation Model and Neural Network Model (Case Study: Plain and Foothill Stations). IRAN-WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, 15(3 ), 206-217. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/100376/en

Vancouver: Copy

Shiravand H., DOSTKAMIYAN M.. Analysis of Temperature Fluctuations in the South West of Iran Based on the Atmospheric General Circulation Model and Neural Network Model (Case Study: Plain and Foothill Stations). IRAN-WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH[Internet]. 2019;15(3 ):206-217. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/100376/en

IEEE: Copy

H. Shiravand, and M. DOSTKAMIYAN, “Analysis of Temperature Fluctuations in the South West of Iran Based on the Atmospheric General Circulation Model and Neural Network Model (Case Study: Plain and Foothill Stations),” IRAN-WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, vol. 15, no. 3 , pp. 206–217, 2019, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/100376/en

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