MONTHLY PREDICTION OF DROUGHT OVER SOUTHWESTERN BASIN OF IRAN USING CFSV. 2 MODEL

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BABAEIAN I.; KHAZANEDARI L.; ABBASI F.; MODIRIAN R.; KARIMIAN M.; MALBUSI SH.

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Journal: IRAN-WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH Year:2018 | Volume:14 | Issue:3 Page(s): 133-145

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Title

MONTHLY PREDICTION OF DROUGHT OVER SOUTHWESTERN BASIN OF IRAN USING CFSV. 2 MODEL

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Keywords

SEASONAL FORECAST MODELQ1

CFSV2Q1

APHRODITEQ1

DROUGHT WARNINGQ1

KAROON BASINQ2

Abstract

Prediction of drought is a main challenge even for those countries with dynamic monthly prediction modeling systems. In such meteorologically advanced countries, prediction of monthly precipitation through dynamical methods is the first step in prediction of drought indices such as SPI and SPEI. Since southwestern basins of Iran including Great Karoon, Jarrahi and Zohreh have significant contribution in providing water for agriculture, drinking, industrial and hydropower demands, so having a seasonal prediction of precipitation and drought is of vital importance for management of water resources in these basins. In this study, the raw output of CFSV2 SEASONAL FORECAST MODEL were calibrated in the base period and then monthly precipitation forecasts for the next three months were corrected based on the monthly derived equations. The corrected monthly precipitation was used for three months SPI forecasts. Observed precipitation corrected by APHRODITE dataset and historical forecast were used for calibration. Results showed that the highest efficiency of drought forecast with 81. 5% were occurred in the case of normal precipitation condition over the basin. Efficiency of the drought forecast were respectively 62. 3 and 42. 3 percent for the precipitation in in wet or drought conditions. Taking into account the frequency of observed drought events for normal, wet, and dry cases which were 76. 4, 12. 5 and 8 percent, respectively, the overall skill of SPI index were found to be 73. 4 percent.

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APA: Copy

BABAEIAN, I., KHAZANEDARI, L., ABBASI, F., MODIRIAN, R., KARIMIAN, M., & MALBUSI, SH.. (2018). MONTHLY PREDICTION OF DROUGHT OVER SOUTHWESTERN BASIN OF IRAN USING CFSV. 2 MODEL. IRAN-WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, 14(3 ), 133-145. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/100443/en

Vancouver: Copy

BABAEIAN I., KHAZANEDARI L., ABBASI F., MODIRIAN R., KARIMIAN M., MALBUSI SH.. MONTHLY PREDICTION OF DROUGHT OVER SOUTHWESTERN BASIN OF IRAN USING CFSV. 2 MODEL. IRAN-WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH[Internet]. 2018;14(3 ):133-145. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/100443/en

IEEE: Copy

I. BABAEIAN, L. KHAZANEDARI, F. ABBASI, R. MODIRIAN, M. KARIMIAN, and SH. MALBUSI, “MONTHLY PREDICTION OF DROUGHT OVER SOUTHWESTERN BASIN OF IRAN USING CFSV. 2 MODEL,” IRAN-WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, vol. 14, no. 3 , pp. 133–145, 2018, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/100443/en

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