Risk analysis of water and wastewater infrastructure projects based on publicprivate partnership (3P) approach by combining Fuzzy Delphi (FD), FMEA and artificial fuzzy assessment (FSE) techniques

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Khoshnevis Mehrdad; Alemi Faramarz; SARRAF AMIRPOUYA

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Paper Information

Journal: JOURNAL OF STRUCTURAL AND CONSTRUCTION ENGINEERING Year:2023 | Volume:9 | Issue:11 Page(s): 77-100

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Title

Risk analysis of water and wastewater infrastructure projects based on publicprivate partnership (3P) approach by combining Fuzzy Delphi (FD), FMEA and artificial fuzzy assessment (FSE) techniques

Author(s)

Khoshnevis Mehrdad | Alemi Faramarz | SARRAF AMIRPOUYA | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

Risk Analysis

Public-Private Partnership (3P)

Water and Wastewater Infrastructure Projects

Integrated Method Development

FD-FMEA-FSE Techniques

Abstract

In recent years, the use of Public-Private-Partnerships (3P) approach to the implementation of infrastructure projects has received much attention. Risk identification and analysis in these projects has always been one of the main challenges of this approach. The purpose of this paper is to determine the different levels of risk in 3P water and wastewater projects in Iran using library studies and field surveys. Using a threephase protocol and developing an integrated method of Risk Analysis, while identifying and separating risks, different levels of risk in these projects were evaluated. In the first phase, 49 risk factors were identified and divided into 6 main groups including technical(R1), economic(R2), political(R3), legal(R4), environmental(R5) and managerial (R6) risks. In the second phase, in order to extract more critical risks, the risks were analyzed and screened by combining Fuzzy Delphi (FD) techniques and Failure Mode Analysis and Effects (FMEA) using the opinions of experts. Based on the results, 23 sub-risk factors with RPNNormalized values greater than 0. 5 were identified as critical risks. In the third phase, different levels of total risks (ORL) were determined by Fuzzy synthetic evaluation (FSE) method in combination with FMEA method. Based on the results of risk groups R2, R1, R3, R4, R6 and R5 with ORL of 7. 468, 7. 262, 7. 132, 6. 992, 6. 815 and 6. 670, respectively, as the most critical risk groups in 3P water projects. And sewage were identified. Risks of allocating financial resources and investor obligations (R2-6), lack of transparency in executive issues and changes in project specifications(R1-1), problems of the government system process in concluding the contract(R3-5), prolongation of licenses and their renewal( R4-6), integrated management, control and utilization of water resources(R6-8) and climate change and rainfall pattern(R5-2) in each of the above groups were identified as the most important critical risk factor. Finally, the ORL value of 3P water and sewage projects in the country was set at 7. 077, which indicates the high level of total risk of these projects.

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APA: Copy

Khoshnevis, Mehrdad, Alemi, Faramarz, & SARRAF, AMIRPOUYA. (2023). Risk analysis of water and wastewater infrastructure projects based on publicprivate partnership (3P) approach by combining Fuzzy Delphi (FD), FMEA and artificial fuzzy assessment (FSE) techniques. JOURNAL OF STRUCTURAL AND CONSTRUCTION ENGINEERING, 9(11 ), 77-100. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/1033824/en

Vancouver: Copy

Khoshnevis Mehrdad, Alemi Faramarz, SARRAF AMIRPOUYA. Risk analysis of water and wastewater infrastructure projects based on publicprivate partnership (3P) approach by combining Fuzzy Delphi (FD), FMEA and artificial fuzzy assessment (FSE) techniques. JOURNAL OF STRUCTURAL AND CONSTRUCTION ENGINEERING[Internet]. 2023;9(11 ):77-100. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/1033824/en

IEEE: Copy

Mehrdad Khoshnevis, Faramarz Alemi, and AMIRPOUYA SARRAF, “Risk analysis of water and wastewater infrastructure projects based on publicprivate partnership (3P) approach by combining Fuzzy Delphi (FD), FMEA and artificial fuzzy assessment (FSE) techniques,” JOURNAL OF STRUCTURAL AND CONSTRUCTION ENGINEERING, vol. 9, no. 11 , pp. 77–100, 2023, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/1033824/en

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