FORECASTING OF DAY-OLD CHICK MONTHLY PRICE IN EAST AZARBAIJAN PROVINCE: APPLICATION OF SEASONAL TIME SERIES MODELS

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GHAHREMANZADEH M.

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Paper Information

Journal: AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS: IRANIAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS (ECONOMICS AND AGRICULTURE JOURNAL) Year:2011 | Volume:5 | Issue:4 Page(s): 183-210

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Title

FORECASTING OF DAY-OLD CHICK MONTHLY PRICE IN EAST AZARBAIJAN PROVINCE: APPLICATION OF SEASONAL TIME SERIES MODELS

Author(s)

GHAHREMANZADEH M. | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

PRICE FORECASTINGQ2

SEASONAL PRICEQ2

SEASONAL UNIT ROOT TESTQ2

SARIMAQ2

DAY-OLD CHICKQ2

Abstract

The broiler industry is one of the main subsectors of agriculture in Iran. This industry is a risky business. Reduction and market risks cause fluctuations in the broiler producer's income. In this context, price fluctuation of day-old-chick is one of the main sources of the market risk. The objective of present study is modeling and forecasting monthly prices of day-old-chick in East Azarbaijan. To this end, the behavior of day-old-chick prices was specified with considering its characteristics, spatially seasonality by using regression-based model by applying SEASONAL UNIT ROOT TEST (BM test) and seasonal Box-Jenkins models as the primary nominates for forecasting model. Results of SEASONAL UNIT ROOT TEST indicated that the monthly prices of DAY-OLD CHICK follow a non-stationary stochastic seasonal process. Accordingly, the regression-based model is an appropriate modeling framework. While SARIMA is an alternative modeling approach, the RMSE of forecasting error suggested the superiority of the regression-based model over the SARIMA model. Therefore, the estimated parameters of the regression-based model can be used to predict the monthly prices of DAY-OLD CHICK in Iran.

Cites

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APA: Copy

GHAHREMANZADEH, M.. (2011). FORECASTING OF DAY-OLD CHICK MONTHLY PRICE IN EAST AZARBAIJAN PROVINCE: APPLICATION OF SEASONAL TIME SERIES MODELS. AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS: IRANIAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS (ECONOMICS AND AGRICULTURE JOURNAL), 5(4), 183-210. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/124502/en

Vancouver: Copy

GHAHREMANZADEH M.. FORECASTING OF DAY-OLD CHICK MONTHLY PRICE IN EAST AZARBAIJAN PROVINCE: APPLICATION OF SEASONAL TIME SERIES MODELS. AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS: IRANIAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS (ECONOMICS AND AGRICULTURE JOURNAL)[Internet]. 2011;5(4):183-210. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/124502/en

IEEE: Copy

M. GHAHREMANZADEH, “FORECASTING OF DAY-OLD CHICK MONTHLY PRICE IN EAST AZARBAIJAN PROVINCE: APPLICATION OF SEASONAL TIME SERIES MODELS,” AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS: IRANIAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS (ECONOMICS AND AGRICULTURE JOURNAL), vol. 5, no. 4, pp. 183–210, 2011, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/124502/en

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