The Investigation of Climate Change Effect on Agricultural Production Risk; the Case of Wheat in Fars Province

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RAFIEE ZOHREH; MOSAVI SEYED HABIBOLLAH; KHALILIAN SADEGH

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Journal: AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS: IRANIAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS (ECONOMICS AND AGRICULTURE JOURNAL) Year:2019 | Volume:13 | Issue:3 Page(s): 87-110

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Title

The Investigation of Climate Change Effect on Agricultural Production Risk; the Case of Wheat in Fars Province

Author(s)

RAFIEE ZOHREH | MOSAVI SEYED HABIBOLLAH | KHALILIAN SADEGH | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

Rain-fed wheatQ2

Climate ChangeQ1

RiskQ2

Just and Pope ModelQ1

Fars provinceQ2

Abstract

Introduction Wheat is presented as strategic agricultural product because it is the main human food source affecting on food security. Wheat farming covers more than half cereals farmlands in Iran. Accordingly, wheat is also the core cereal in Iran. This study intents to investigate the raised question “ how does Climate Change affects wheat yield? ” Rain-fed wheat farming as a sensitive crop to climatic aspects was investigated regarding the study purpose. Materials and Method Utilizing the random function of the Just and Pope (1978, 1979), and Feasible Generalize List Square approach (FGLS), the role of climatic and non-climatic factors were evaluated in the mean and variance of yield in six regions including Abadeh, Eqlid, Marvdasht, Shiraz, Larestan and Lamerd (1374_1395). The data of temperature and precipitation were predicted through four-time period contains 2011-2030, 2031-2050, 2051-2070, and 2071-2090. Four scenarios including RCP 4. 5 and RCP 8. 5 relying on GFDL-CM3 model in order to forecast climate’ s variables. Finally yield and its Risk were analyzed. Results and discussion The results demonstrated that the precipitation as one of the most important factors, Climate Change phenomenon has positive significance on Rain-fed wheat yield, thus the precipitation can predict 1. 61 percent of variation of Rain-fed wheat yield. Moreover, the precipitation and temperature as a reducing Risk inputs are effective factors to Rain-fed wheat yield of Fars province. Findings illustrated that Climate Change provides the condition for temperature to be able to compensate loss due to reduced precipitation, because of both positive effect of temperature and precipitation. Suggestion According to study findings, some suggestions were presented to policy makers in designing mitigation and adaptation strategies for Rain-fed wheat farmers in response to Climate Change like using heat and drought resistant seed and mechanizing cultivation of Rain-fed wheat due to the negative effects of some inputs such as seed and labor on yield at the recent climate of the area.

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APA: Copy

RAFIEE, ZOHREH, MOSAVI, SEYED HABIBOLLAH, & KHALILIAN, SADEGH. (2019). The Investigation of Climate Change Effect on Agricultural Production Risk; the Case of Wheat in Fars Province. AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS: IRANIAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS (ECONOMICS AND AGRICULTURE JOURNAL), 13(3 ), 87-110. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/124648/en

Vancouver: Copy

RAFIEE ZOHREH, MOSAVI SEYED HABIBOLLAH, KHALILIAN SADEGH. The Investigation of Climate Change Effect on Agricultural Production Risk; the Case of Wheat in Fars Province. AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS: IRANIAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS (ECONOMICS AND AGRICULTURE JOURNAL)[Internet]. 2019;13(3 ):87-110. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/124648/en

IEEE: Copy

ZOHREH RAFIEE, SEYED HABIBOLLAH MOSAVI, and SADEGH KHALILIAN, “The Investigation of Climate Change Effect on Agricultural Production Risk; the Case of Wheat in Fars Province,” AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS: IRANIAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS (ECONOMICS AND AGRICULTURE JOURNAL), vol. 13, no. 3 , pp. 87–110, 2019, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/124648/en

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