Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in Varamin Plain Basin Using SWAT Model

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SHAHVARI N.; KHALILIAN S.; MOSAVI SAYED HABIBOLLAH; MORTAZAVI SAYED ABOLGHASEM

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Journal: Iranian Journal of Irrigation and Drainage Year:2019 | Volume:13 | Issue:2 Page(s): 354-366

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Title

Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in Varamin Plain Basin Using SWAT Model

Author(s)

SHAHVARI N. | KHALILIAN S. | MOSAVI SAYED HABIBOLLAH | MORTAZAVI SAYED ABOLGHASEM | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

Climate changeQ2

LARS-WG modelQ1

runoffQ2

SWAT modelQ1

Abstract

This study evaluates the effects of Climate change on temperature, rainfall and runoff in future periods by LARS-WG statistical model and SWAT hydrological model under A1B, A2 and B1 climate scenarios. First, in order to produce future meteorological data, the LARS-WG model was calibrated and the coefficient of variation of minimum temperature, maximum temperature and precipitation for future periods was simulated as SWAT model vertices. The results of the LARS-WG model showed that minimum and maximum temperature will increase in future periods and there will be changes not only in rainfall but also in the rainfall pattern. Then runoff simulation was performed on a monthly basis by the SWAT model. The SWAT-CUP software and the SUFI-2 algorithm were used for calibration and validation. NS and R2coefficient for calibration period were 0. 58 and 0. 65, and for validation period were 0. 49 and 0. 5. Then, by introducing the average of the results of the SWAT model, the runoff changes from the basin were simulated during the periods 2011-2030, 2046-2065 and 2080-2080. The results showed that runoff in the period of 2011-2030 will increase under all three scenarios in the spring and summer seasons and decrease in autumn and winter seasons. Also, runoff in periods of 2065-2070 and 2080-2080 will be increased under all three scenarios in autumn and winter and will decrease in spring and summer. This seasonal displacement in runoff is due to the effects of Climate change in the form of temperature rise, melting snow, changing rainfall patterns, and so on.

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APA: Copy

SHAHVARI, N., KHALILIAN, S., MOSAVI, SAYED HABIBOLLAH, & MORTAZAVI, SAYED ABOLGHASEM. (2019). Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in Varamin Plain Basin Using SWAT Model. IRANIAN JOURNAL OF IRRIGATION AND DRAINAGE, 13(2 ), 354-366. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/131740/en

Vancouver: Copy

SHAHVARI N., KHALILIAN S., MOSAVI SAYED HABIBOLLAH, MORTAZAVI SAYED ABOLGHASEM. Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in Varamin Plain Basin Using SWAT Model. IRANIAN JOURNAL OF IRRIGATION AND DRAINAGE[Internet]. 2019;13(2 ):354-366. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/131740/en

IEEE: Copy

N. SHAHVARI, S. KHALILIAN, SAYED HABIBOLLAH MOSAVI, and SAYED ABOLGHASEM MORTAZAVI, “Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in Varamin Plain Basin Using SWAT Model,” IRANIAN JOURNAL OF IRRIGATION AND DRAINAGE, vol. 13, no. 2 , pp. 354–366, 2019, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/131740/en

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