ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON WATER RESOURCES IN ZARRINEHRUD BASIN USING SWAT MODEL

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MANSOURI B.; AHMADZADEH H.; MASSAH BAVANI A.; MORID S.; DELAVAR M.; LOTFI S.

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Journal: Journal of Water and Soil Year:2015 | Volume:28 | Issue:6 Page(s): 1191-1203

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Title

ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON WATER RESOURCES IN ZARRINEHRUD BASIN USING SWAT MODEL

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Keywords

CLIMATE CHANGEQ2

ZARRINEHRUD BASINQ1

LARS-WGQ2

AOGCMQ1

RUNOFFQ2

SWATQ1

Abstract

This paper evaluate impacts of CLIMATE CHANGE on temperature, rainfall and RUNOFF in the future Using statistical model, LARS-WG, and conceptual hydrological model, SWAT. In order to the Zarrinehrud riverbasin, as the biggest catchment of the Lake Urmia basin was selected as a case study. At first, for the generation of future weather data in the basin, LARS-WG model was calibrated using meteorological data and then 14 models of AOGCM were applied and results of these models were downscaled using LARS-WG model in 6 synoptic stations for period of 2015 to 2030. SWAT model was used for evaluation of CLIMATE CHANGE impacts on run off in the basin. In order to, the model was calibrated and validated using 6 gauging stations for period of1987-2007 and the value of R2 was between 0.49 and 0.71 for calibration and between 0.54 and 0.77 for validation. Then by introducing average of downscaled results of AOGCM models to the SWAT, run off changes of the basin were simulated during 2015-2030. Average of results of LARS-WG model indicated that the monthly mean of minimum and maximum temperatures will increase compared to the baseline period. Also monthly average of precipitation will decrease in spring season but will increase in summer and autumn. The results showed that in addition to the amount of precipitation, its pattern will change in the future period, too. The results of RUNOFF simulation showed that the amount of inflow to the Zarrinehrud reservoir will reduce28.4 percent compared to the baseline period.

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APA: Copy

MANSOURI, B., AHMADZADEH, H., MASSAH BAVANI, A., MORID, S., DELAVAR, M., & LOTFI, S.. (2015). ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON WATER RESOURCES IN ZARRINEHRUD BASIN USING SWAT MODEL. JOURNAL OF WATER AND SOIL (AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES AND TECHNOLOGY), 28(6), 1191-1203. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/141186/en

Vancouver: Copy

MANSOURI B., AHMADZADEH H., MASSAH BAVANI A., MORID S., DELAVAR M., LOTFI S.. ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON WATER RESOURCES IN ZARRINEHRUD BASIN USING SWAT MODEL. JOURNAL OF WATER AND SOIL (AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES AND TECHNOLOGY)[Internet]. 2015;28(6):1191-1203. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/141186/en

IEEE: Copy

B. MANSOURI, H. AHMADZADEH, A. MASSAH BAVANI, S. MORID, M. DELAVAR, and S. LOTFI, “ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON WATER RESOURCES IN ZARRINEHRUD BASIN USING SWAT MODEL,” JOURNAL OF WATER AND SOIL (AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES AND TECHNOLOGY), vol. 28, no. 6, pp. 1191–1203, 2015, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/141186/en

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