Forecasting Heavy Rainfall in Southern Coasts of Caspian Sea Under Climate Change Conditions in the Period 2011-2030

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KHORSHIDDOUST A.M.; Sarraf B.; GHERMEZCHESHMEH B.; JAFARZADEH F.

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Journal: IRANIAN JOURNAL OF WATERSHED MANAGEMENT SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING Year:2018 | Volume:12 | Issue:42 Page(s): 121-129

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Title

Forecasting Heavy Rainfall in Southern Coasts of Caspian Sea Under Climate Change Conditions in the Period 2011-2030

Author(s)

KHORSHIDDOUST A.M. | Sarraf B. | GHERMEZCHESHMEH B. | JAFARZADEH F. | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

Heavy rainfallQ1

Climate changeQ1

Southern coasts of caspian seaQ1

Extreme rainfall indicesQ1

R-ClimdexQ1

Abstract

Heavy rainfall is one of the most important climatic events, and if the proper planning is not done, the environmental and economic damages will be lost without access. In the present study, future changes in Heavy rainfall of the southern Coasts of the Caspian Sea were predicted with regard to global Climate change in the period 2011-2030. For this purpose, changes in the rainfall pattern of 10, 20 and 25 millimeters and more were studied based on the data of seven synoptic stations (Anzali, Astara, Babolsar, Gorgan, Noshahr, Ramsar and Rasht). The daily rainfall data in the period of 1961-2010 after verifying their accuracy, were simulated using the LARS-WG model. After controlling the compliance of the simulated values with the current data, daily precipitation was expected in the upcoming period (2011-2030). Three indicators of Heavy rainfall of 10, 20 mm were calculated by the R-Climdex model for the observation period and the upcoming period, and the results showed that during the period in the future, in all stations in the area, the number of days with a 10mm Heavy rainfall will be reduced. The comparison of the average number of days with a very Heavy rainfall of 25 mm and more indicates that in the following period, in all stations in the area, the number of days with a very Heavy rainfall of 25 mm and more will be added. Also, the results of the comparison and analysis of the number of days with a very Heavy rainfall of 20 mm in the base period and the upcoming period indicated that; in all stations in the region in the upcoming period, the number of days with Heavy rainfall of 20 mm will be added. In total, in all stations studied, Anzali station will experience the largest number of days with Heavy rainfall of 10 mm and a very Heavy rainfall of 20 and 25 millimeters.

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APA: Copy

KHORSHIDDOUST, A.M., Sarraf, B., GHERMEZCHESHMEH, B., & JAFARZADEH, F.. (2018). Forecasting Heavy Rainfall in Southern Coasts of Caspian Sea Under Climate Change Conditions in the Period 2011-2030. IRANIAN JOURNAL OF WATERSHED MANAGEMENT SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING, 12(42 ), 121-129. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/134751/en

Vancouver: Copy

KHORSHIDDOUST A.M., Sarraf B., GHERMEZCHESHMEH B., JAFARZADEH F.. Forecasting Heavy Rainfall in Southern Coasts of Caspian Sea Under Climate Change Conditions in the Period 2011-2030. IRANIAN JOURNAL OF WATERSHED MANAGEMENT SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING[Internet]. 2018;12(42 ):121-129. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/134751/en

IEEE: Copy

A.M. KHORSHIDDOUST, B. Sarraf, B. GHERMEZCHESHMEH, and F. JAFARZADEH, “Forecasting Heavy Rainfall in Southern Coasts of Caspian Sea Under Climate Change Conditions in the Period 2011-2030,” IRANIAN JOURNAL OF WATERSHED MANAGEMENT SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING, vol. 12, no. 42 , pp. 121–129, 2018, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/134751/en

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