Habitat modeling of Black Cobra (Walterinnesia morgani) in Iran, predicting current and future potential distribution under habitat conditions and climate change

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Alitavoli Asal; Kaboli Mohammad

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Journal Paper

Paper Information

Journal: Journal of Natural Environment Year:2024 | Volume:77 | Issue:ویژه نامه Page(s): 1-14

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Title

Habitat modeling of Black Cobra (Walterinnesia morgani) in Iran, predicting current and future potential distribution under habitat conditions and climate change

Author(s)

Alitavoli Asal | Kaboli Mohammad | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

Black cobra

climate change

Habitat suitability modeling

Potential distribution range

Abstract

In recent years, the destruction of biodiversity in Iran and worldwide has been increasingly attributed to the alarming effects of climate change. To effectively address the negative consequences on living organisms, the utilization of modeling methods is essential. This study focuses on the habitat and distribution of an unidentified species of Black cobra in the southern and southwestern regions of Iran. By considering habitat variables and current/future climate conditions, specifically under two scenarios of future climate change (2040 and 2100) - mild (SSP126) and severe (SSP585) - the study employs the maximum entropy method with six climate models for modeling using Rstudio software, covering 64 present points and 18 environmental layers. The results revealed a predicted expansion of the Black cobra's potential habitat beyond the previously documented areas in Iran. Furthermore, a comparison between future and current models demonstrates an estimated increase in the species' habitat by 14.27% and 18.58% under the mild and severe scenarios respectively, by 2040, compared to present conditions. However, by 2100, the favorable habitat for the Black cobra is projected to decline to 12.11% and 12.19% under the mild and severe scenarios respectively. The findings underscore the influential factors in the distribution of the Black cobra, with the human footprint emerging as the most significant. Climatic variables also play a crucial role in determining the habitat suitability for this species, as rising temperatures and reduced precipitation affect its desirability. In conclusion, the expanding range of suitable habitats for the Black cobra until 2040 is expected to result in population growth and an escalation of conflicts between this species and residents of the south and southwest regions of Iran. However, if global warming continues to worsen until 2100, it will yield a grave impact, jeopardizing the availability of favorable habitats and putting the Black cobra, like many other species, at a heightened risk of extinction.

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