FITTING THE SEASONAL TIME SERIES MODEL TO THE RIVERS DISCHARGE IN TIME DOMAIN (CASE STUDY: ATRAK RIVER)

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REZANEZHAD KESHTELI M.; BABANEZHAD M.; AMINI A.

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Journal: Journal of Water and Soil Conservation Year:2016 | Volume:22 | Issue:6 Page(s): 307-315

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Title

FITTING THE SEASONAL TIME SERIES MODEL TO THE RIVERS DISCHARGE IN TIME DOMAIN (CASE STUDY: ATRAK RIVER)

Author(s)

REZANEZHAD KESHTELI M. | BABANEZHAD M. | AMINI A. | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

TIME SERIESQ2

FORECASTINGQ2

AUTOREGRESSIVE MOVING AVERAGE INTEGRATED MODELQ2

DISCHARGEQ2

ATRAK RIVERQ2

Abstract

Background and Objectives: Nowadays, investigations to forecast the hydrological variables behavior and the effective climatological factors on it in the time domain are considered by researchers. Therefore, the usage of time dependent data analysis in the prediction of river DISCHARGE rates is statistically valid and so that the results can be used in the planning and management of water resources and infrastructure design.Materials and Methods: The study area was ATRAK RIVER which is one of the most important water resources in economic, agricultural and environmental point of view in the North East of Iran. In recent years, this river had overflow or decline of the water levels that certainly affected on river DISCHARGE rates. In this paper, we use the data of the six hydrometric stations from 51-52 years till 81-82 years of the catchment ATRAK RIVER.Results: First we have paid attention to the descriptive analysis of data and then we fitted a suitable model to the DISCHARGE TIME SERIES data of considered stations after removing trend and the seasonal variations. Finally, through estimating the parameters of the model, we predicted the distribution behavior of the river flow rate. We used Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and Mean Square Error (MSE) for fitting model and estimating the parameters of the fitted model. After fixing the variance of the data and remove the trend and seasonality variations and by using the Auto-correlation and Partial Auto-correlation plots, ARIMA (1, 0, 2) (1, 1, 2) 12 model was admitted. Finally, using this model, future values ATRAK RIVER DISCHARGE rates were forecasted for the year.Conclusion: Since ATRAK RIVER basin has been both mountainous and plain, as well as its climate is constantly changing, therefore special attention to changes in trends and seasonal variations in hydrometric stations in this area before fitting a TIME SERIES model and FORECASTING is necessary. Otherwise the statistical analysis of TIME SERIES analysis may yield to the bias results.

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APA: Copy

REZANEZHAD KESHTELI, M., BABANEZHAD, M., & AMINI, A.. (2016). FITTING THE SEASONAL TIME SERIES MODEL TO THE RIVERS DISCHARGE IN TIME DOMAIN (CASE STUDY: ATRAK RIVER). JOURNAL OF WATER AND SOIL CONSERVATION (JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES AND NATURAL RESOURCES), 22(6), 307-315. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/156368/en

Vancouver: Copy

REZANEZHAD KESHTELI M., BABANEZHAD M., AMINI A.. FITTING THE SEASONAL TIME SERIES MODEL TO THE RIVERS DISCHARGE IN TIME DOMAIN (CASE STUDY: ATRAK RIVER). JOURNAL OF WATER AND SOIL CONSERVATION (JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES AND NATURAL RESOURCES)[Internet]. 2016;22(6):307-315. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/156368/en

IEEE: Copy

M. REZANEZHAD KESHTELI, M. BABANEZHAD, and A. AMINI, “FITTING THE SEASONAL TIME SERIES MODEL TO THE RIVERS DISCHARGE IN TIME DOMAIN (CASE STUDY: ATRAK RIVER),” JOURNAL OF WATER AND SOIL CONSERVATION (JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES AND NATURAL RESOURCES), vol. 22, no. 6, pp. 307–315, 2016, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/156368/en

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