COMPARISON OF STOCHASTIC MODELS AND CONCEPTUAL MODELS IN HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHT FORECAST (CASE STUDY: KARKHEH RIVER BASIN)

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BAZRAFSHAN OMOLBANIN; SALAJEGHEH ALI; FATEHI MARJ AHMAD; MAHDAVI MOHAMMAD; BAZRAFSHAN JAVAD; HEJABI SOMAYEH

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Journal: Journal of Range and Watershed Managment Year:2014 | Volume:66 | Issue:4 Page(s): 493-508

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Title

COMPARISON OF STOCHASTIC MODELS AND CONCEPTUAL MODELS IN HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHT FORECAST (CASE STUDY: KARKHEH RIVER BASIN)

Author(s)

Keywords

ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKSQ1

FORECASTINGQ2

HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHTQ2

HYBRID MODELSQ2

STOCHASTIC MODELSQ2

Abstract

Drought is random and nonlinear phenomenon. Linear STOCHASTIC MODELS, nonlinear artificial neural network and HYBRID MODELS are advantaged for drought FORECASTING. This paper presents the performances of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), direct multi-step neural network (DMSNN), recursive multi-step neural network (RMSNN), hybrid stochastic neural network of directive approach (HSNNDM) and hybrid stochastic neural network of recursive approach (HSNNRM) with time scale monthly and seasonally for hydrology drought FORECASTING and SDI selected as predictor in the Karkheh river basin. The results shown performances of HNNDA was found to forecast HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHT with greater accuracy for SDI FORECASTING, so performances model in monthly scale was greater accuracy to seasonality scale.

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APA: Copy

BAZRAFSHAN, OMOLBANIN, SALAJEGHEH, ALI, FATEHI MARJ, AHMAD, MAHDAVI, MOHAMMAD, BAZRAFSHAN, JAVAD, & HEJABI, SOMAYEH. (2014). COMPARISON OF STOCHASTIC MODELS AND CONCEPTUAL MODELS IN HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHT FORECAST (CASE STUDY: KARKHEH RIVER BASIN). JOURNAL OF RANGE AND WATERSHED MANAGEMENT (IRANIAN JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES), 66(4), 493-508. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/162408/en

Vancouver: Copy

BAZRAFSHAN OMOLBANIN, SALAJEGHEH ALI, FATEHI MARJ AHMAD, MAHDAVI MOHAMMAD, BAZRAFSHAN JAVAD, HEJABI SOMAYEH. COMPARISON OF STOCHASTIC MODELS AND CONCEPTUAL MODELS IN HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHT FORECAST (CASE STUDY: KARKHEH RIVER BASIN). JOURNAL OF RANGE AND WATERSHED MANAGEMENT (IRANIAN JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES)[Internet]. 2014;66(4):493-508. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/162408/en

IEEE: Copy

OMOLBANIN BAZRAFSHAN, ALI SALAJEGHEH, AHMAD FATEHI MARJ, MOHAMMAD MAHDAVI, JAVAD BAZRAFSHAN, and SOMAYEH HEJABI, “COMPARISON OF STOCHASTIC MODELS AND CONCEPTUAL MODELS IN HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHT FORECAST (CASE STUDY: KARKHEH RIVER BASIN),” JOURNAL OF RANGE AND WATERSHED MANAGEMENT (IRANIAN JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES), vol. 66, no. 4, pp. 493–508, 2014, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/162408/en

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