Predicting chicken meat price in Iranian poultry industry and comparing it with global outlook

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Bahadori Sedigheh; MEHRABANI YEGANEH HASSAN; ZAGHARI MOJTABA; RAFIEE HAMED

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Journal: Iranian Journal of Animal Science Year:2018 | Volume:48 | Issue:4 Page(s): 483-492

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Title

Predicting chicken meat price in Iranian poultry industry and comparing it with global outlook

Author(s)

Bahadori Sedigheh | MEHRABANI YEGANEH HASSAN | ZAGHARI MOJTABA | RAFIEE HAMED | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

Prediction Error CorrectionQ1

Time Series TechniquesQ1

Univariate and Multivariate PatternsQ1

Abstract

At this study, with using from univariate and multivariate Econometrics Models of Time Series Techniques, the annual prices from 2015 to 2020 for Iran and from 2014 to 2020 for world was predicted. The Iran data related to the chicken price, corn price, soybean meal price and chicken production rate from 1990 to 2014 were provided from Ministry of Agriculture Iran, State Livestock Affairs Logistics (S. L. A. L) Inc. and Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran and the world data are provided from FAO STAT for the year 1961-2013. The most appropriate model for fitness and prediction of chicken meat in Iran is the autoregressive moving average model (ARMAX (3, 5)), with the in-sample and out of sample of predicting error are 2. 12 and 4. 7 percent and in world, autoregressive moving average model (ARMA (1, 13)) with the in-sample and out of sample of predicting error are 4. 34 and 3. 91 percent, according to mean absolute percent error criterion. Also the results of vector error correction models (VECM) estimation have shown one unit increasing in the ratio of the price of corn to soy and the amount of meat production in Iran, can increase 7. 59 and 3. 29 percent in Iran chicken meat and one unit increasing in world price of corn and the amount of world production of chicken meat can cause increase equal 0. 31, 0. 46 and 0. 64 percent in chicken meat world price.

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APA: Copy

Bahadori, Sedigheh, MEHRABANI YEGANEH, HASSAN, ZAGHARI, MOJTABA, & RAFIEE, HAMED. (2018). Predicting chicken meat price in Iranian poultry industry and comparing it with global outlook. IRANIAN JOURNAL OF ANIMAL SCIENCE (IRANIAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES), 48(4 ), 483-492. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/193492/en

Vancouver: Copy

Bahadori Sedigheh, MEHRABANI YEGANEH HASSAN, ZAGHARI MOJTABA, RAFIEE HAMED. Predicting chicken meat price in Iranian poultry industry and comparing it with global outlook. IRANIAN JOURNAL OF ANIMAL SCIENCE (IRANIAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES)[Internet]. 2018;48(4 ):483-492. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/193492/en

IEEE: Copy

Sedigheh Bahadori, HASSAN MEHRABANI YEGANEH, MOJTABA ZAGHARI, and HAMED RAFIEE, “Predicting chicken meat price in Iranian poultry industry and comparing it with global outlook,” IRANIAN JOURNAL OF ANIMAL SCIENCE (IRANIAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES), vol. 48, no. 4 , pp. 483–492, 2018, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/193492/en

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