EVALUATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON AGRICULTURAL WATER ALLOCATION IN QARA SU WATERSHED, USING WEAP

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MALMIR MAHSA; MOHAMMADREZAPOUR OMOLBANI; SHARIF AZARI SALMAN

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Journal: Journal of Irrigation and Water Engineering Year:2016 | Volume:6 | Issue:23 Page(s): 143-155

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Title

EVALUATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON AGRICULTURAL WATER ALLOCATION IN QARA SU WATERSHED, USING WEAP

Author(s)

MALMIR MAHSA | MOHAMMADREZAPOUR OMOLBANI | SHARIF AZARI SALMAN | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKSQ2

CLIMATE CHANGEQ2

HADCM3Q2

QARASU BASINQ1

SDSMQ1

WEAPQ1

Abstract

Every kind of CLIMATE CHANGE on the terrestrial earth is the beginning of a chain of reactions whose effect can be directly observed on hydrological processes. Qara Su basin catchment, located in Kermanshah Province, is one of the important sub– basins of Karkheh River that, in terms of agriculture and food security, is considered as an important area in the west of Iran. In this regard, achieving reliable methods of predicting the river flows in order to plan proper operation of water resources has become increasingly significant. In this study, first, Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) was used to measure the large -scale data of the atmospheric general circulation model (HadCM3) in the local climate scenario, A2, which considers both the rapid economic development for the future world, the remarkable technological advances, and excessive use of the fossil fuels in future. These are measured for the meteorological parameters of temperature and precipitation in the basin of Qara Su. Then, considering the data of rainfall, temperature and flow rate during the baseline (1971-2000) and the outputs of the fine- scale model in the period (2011-2040) as well as using an artificial neural network in MATLAB 2012 the river’s discharge during the future period was simulated. Ultimately, the allocation condition of water resources and the required water for agricultural sector were simulated using the water evaluation and assessment programming model, WEAP. The results of the climate model indicated a rise in temperature and a decrease in rainfall within the desired course rather than the base period (1997-2000), so that it was followed by a 1.6ºC rise in temperature and a 1.77% decrease in rainfall all over the area. Consequently, after this increase in temperature and decrease in rainfall, a 32.62% decrease of discharge rate is estimated for Q ra Su River. The result analysis of WEAP model, under the climate scenarios and given the existing under- cultivation level, indicates an increased unmet need for agriculture in the studied region for future period.

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APA: Copy

MALMIR, MAHSA, MOHAMMADREZAPOUR, OMOLBANI, & SHARIF AZARI, SALMAN. (2016). EVALUATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON AGRICULTURAL WATER ALLOCATION IN QARA SU WATERSHED, USING WEAP. IRANIAN OF IRRIGATION & WATER ENGINEERING, 6(23), 143-155. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/247297/en

Vancouver: Copy

MALMIR MAHSA, MOHAMMADREZAPOUR OMOLBANI, SHARIF AZARI SALMAN. EVALUATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON AGRICULTURAL WATER ALLOCATION IN QARA SU WATERSHED, USING WEAP. IRANIAN OF IRRIGATION & WATER ENGINEERING[Internet]. 2016;6(23):143-155. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/247297/en

IEEE: Copy

MAHSA MALMIR, OMOLBANI MOHAMMADREZAPOUR, and SALMAN SHARIF AZARI, “EVALUATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON AGRICULTURAL WATER ALLOCATION IN QARA SU WATERSHED, USING WEAP,” IRANIAN OF IRRIGATION & WATER ENGINEERING, vol. 6, no. 23, pp. 143–155, 2016, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/247297/en

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